Brazilian Magic (2:10 Redcar 3rd November)

The luck of the Irish deserted me on Sunday and, to be honest, I have pushed my luck lately with a few nice wins over these past weekends. 

Saying that, I was still disappointed as my two bets didn't even look like placing never mind winning. 

I was worried about the drop in trip for METAPHORICAL and despite being up with the pace couldn't quicken with the leaders and plugged on to finish fifth. 

I did expect more from KING OF THE CASTLE who comes from a lovely family who have won multiple group races so it was disappointing to see King Of The Castle finish fifth and never in with a shout. I won’t be giving up on him just yet as it took Serpentine a few runs to get the hang of things before getting a win on the board and going on to win the Epsom Derby last year so put this one in your tracker for another day. 

I thought HOPEFULLY DARLING ran a promising race In dire conditions at Newmarket when getting the hang of things late on. 

I mentioned a few to look out for at Kempton on Monday and was pleased with how they ran. ILZA'EEM was actually 7/1 the night before but that didn’t last long and went to 3/1 in a blink of an eye, I thought I was seeing things and couldn’t believe my eyes as I was just about to have an each way bet. In the end, I had two win bets on ILZA'EEM and my other tracker INIGO JONES who stayed on nicely and definitely worth checking next time out. 

14:10 Redcar 03 Nov 2020  

Karl Burke doesn't have the best first timeout record with 2-year-olds at Redcar. In fact, he hasn’t had a first timeout winner over the past four years but a few have placed so my tracker here comes with a warning. 

WIZARD D'AMOUR is an expensive Dutch Art colt owned by Mr Carl Waters & Mrs E Burke. 

A full-brother to the William Haggas trained Diagnostic who ran to a decent level. One issue is will the 200,000gns yearling take to the soft ground? 

I guess we won’t know till tomorrow but sire Dutch Art did win on soft early in his career. 

The likely favourite BILL PEYTO looks a nice type for Simcock and with the stylish Jamie Spencer in the saddle we could see one of them rides when he cruises up without moving a muscle to win easily but at the time of writing Wizard is available at 5s so a small each-way bet for me as ground concerns and first timeout is always a worry.

16:50 Kempton 04 Nov 2020 

The 2-year-old racing on Wednesday looks fantastic but a day to watch and take notes. Saying that, I will be having a each-way bet on my next tracker who I backed first timeout. GIRL FROM IPANEMA comes from the Ed Walker (pictured) yard and William Buick takes the ride. The Fast Company filly is a 56,000 gns purchase for owner David Ward who also has the talented Starman in training with Ed. Looking at the result you would think she was disappointing but I thought she looked professional, maybe a touch keen, but was up with the pace and not knocked about. Hopefully an each-way bet is available come Wednesday. 

Good luck and thanks for reading.

15:55 Kempton 15 Sep 2020, Fergie Time?

You Know your luck is in when you book a week off work and you get a mini heatwave, well I say my luck is in but then I got told I was painting the house ffs, anyway I was planning a few posts on my days off but for reasons known I haven't had much time. As always a little look back in what hasn't been the best week. In my last post I mentioned Conquering Eagle but the Andrew Balding colt couldn't hold on for a place, I guess I was a little disappointed but it happens. I had a small bet on the William Haggas trained Shamardalah which I got totally wrong as the Richard Hannon trained Little Rollright won well. Another bet I made was Master Of The Seas in the Goffs Vincent O'Brien National Stakes but another who couldn't make the winners enclosure. All in all, a pretty disappointing week. 

RALPH BECKETT EYE-CATCHERS 

Ralph Beckett has enjoyed a nice couple of winners lately, first was Fablis for Mr K. Abdullah who won second timeout at Chepstow recently and looks like a nice prospect, next was New Mandate who won the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes at Doncaster with the great man himself Frankie Dettori on board so it seems fitting to mention a few Ralph Beckett trained horses that I think will be winning in the near future. 

CASUARINA is a Sea The Moon filly who is owned and bred by Miss K. Rausing. Casuarina has a lovely pedigree and is a full-sister to 100 rated Durston and a half-sister to the Ralph Beckett trained Cubanita who won some great races including the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury in 2014 and had an official rating of 111. Casuarina made her debut at Leicester in a nice looking novice stakes race, well-supported from 10s into 5/1 Casuarina was slowly away and ran green before staying on and finishing third but couldn’t reach leaders. One for next time but I’m sure she will be well-supported again. 

Quantum Leap Racing have had a few nice horses with Ralph Beckett including Nivaldo who won his first two races as a 2-year-old and looked a great talent before sadly dying as a three-year-old. Wyclif is another who finished second in the Silver Tankard Stakes at Pontefract last season so it’s no surprise to see another on the eye-catchers list. ORGETORIX was a 40,000 gns purchase at the 2019 October Yearling Sales and made his debut at Newbury last month. The Archipenko gelding wasn’t well-fancied for debut but still ran a promising race to finish third and is another to look out for. 

15:55 Kempton 15 Sep 2020 

Things didn’t go to plan with my last Andrew Balding runner Conquering Eagle but another has hit the radar in the name of FLORENCE STREET and has the champ Oisin Murphy on board. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson the Iffraaj filly made her debut at the beginning of the month at Salisbury and was up with the pace until weakening to finish seventh in a nice class 2 race. I’m hoping she will strip fitter tomorrow and the Balding and Murphy combination at Kempton can bring the money home. Florence Street is 4/1 at the time of writing(00.33) if drifts to double figures would be a negative. 

Couple of trackers that could be worth keeping an eye on in the next few days. 

14:25 Beverley 16 Sep 2020 WISE JUDGEMENT, Mark Johnston 

14:35 Yarmouth 16 Sep 2020 READY TO VENTURE, William Haggas 

Thanks for reading and stay safe.

Can Emaraty Be The Hero For Karl Burke (Plus Reviews And Previews)

First off, a pretty shocking day today by anybody’s standard with all three of my fancies disappointing. I expected a lot better from Grand Bazaar who plugged on to finish third without threatening the front pair. Next up was Too Big To Fail who was never going well and soundly beaten in the end. Some promise was shown by my tracker Float who dwelt but kept on towards the finish, which could be interesting next timeout. Last was Streeton who drifted to 8/1 before the off, I knew my fate once this happened. 

A good few 2-year-old races tomorrow so hopefully, I can at least get a run for my money on one. 

13:55 Newmarket 23 Oct 2019.

Emaraty Hero is well-thought-of by trainer Karl Burke. I am confident this 55,000 gns Lope De Vega colt has ability. Karl Burke gave Emaraty Hero two significant early entries in the shape of the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes and Saturdays Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes but takes this option. He looked pretty professional on debut when smartly away and knew his job from the off. It was a promising debut despite finishing third he had two nice horses in front of him. Tsar and Glenties both look nice types for the future. Emaraty Hero looks to have the size and scope to improve and will hopefully strip fitter tomorrow and go one better than Newcastle. 

Another worth mentioning is the John Gosden newcomer King Leonidas who former jockey Alan Rutter gave me as his John Gosden horse to follow. He too had an entry on Saturdays Group 1 race but doesn't run. To add to that we have the Richard Hannon newcomer Mafia Power plus a few other potentially nice types. A race not to go mad on but hopefully Emaraty Hero will drift to an each-way price. 

18:40 Kempton 23 Oct 2019 

Sorrel looks likely to go off favourite here and rightly so after an eye-catching debut over this CD last month. The form of that race looks decent and Sorrel was well-supported before the off when backed down from 6s to 7/2. Sorrel should know more this time out and will hopefully get her head in front today. 

15:05 Newmarket 23 Oct 2019 

Despite starting off a big price for debut (33/1) Grain Of Sense made a pretty promising debut despite being ridden for most of it. The Ralph Beckett trained Teofilo colt ran on past beaten horses and looks to need every inch of this one-mile two-furlong race. Princess Bride looks a danger after getting blocked off when making her run at Leicester the last timeout. 

19:00 Chelmsford City 24 Oct 2019

I am not sure I will be betting on Farnham here but I am intrigued to see how this bay 3-year-old filly runs. Roger Varian gave her a host of significant entries as a 2-year-old, but she didn't run all season. Farnham made her debut in April this year at Newbury. The Farhh filly was sent off 13/8 favourite and despite finishing fifth I thought she could have won and was given an easy introduction. I was expecting to see her back out not long after but here we are in October and it’s only her second run of her career. It’s a guessing game whether she still has the ability she had as a 2-year-old but I for one can’t wait to see her run again. 

Good luck and thanks for reading.

Kevin Ryan Has A Vision (Wednesday's Thoughts)

You know it’s time to give up football for good when you break your wrist the first game back after three years of not playing. The one bonus is and I would say the only bonus to being honest because no sick pay and daytime Television is a bloody nightmare, I can actually write a couple of more blogs, well at a slower pace at the minute anyway with this dam hand killing me. Anyway onto Wednesdays post. 

14:20 Catterick 28 Aug 2019: 

My selection is based on potential more than form as the Kevin Ryan Dandy Man colt finished seventh on his debut 25 days ago. Romantic Vision is owned by Mr Roger Peel & Clipper Logistics and purchased for just 38,000 euros in May this year. They also share another horse called Queen Jo Jo who contested Group races last year and won the second time of asking. Romantic Vision made his debut at Thirsk and was well-supported into 11/4 second favourite before the off. As for the race he was keen the first furlong and checked when making his run, after that never nearer. It’s a gamble but one I Am willing to take and hopefully come post time all eight are still running. 

Ruby Wonder is another tracker who has a chance and was well-thought-of by trainer David O’Meara who ran this Swiss Spirit filly in the Marygate Listed Fillies Stakes at York in May. Ruby Wonder was outclassed and this is more her level but has she regressed? We will see. 

17:55 Kempton 28 Aug 2019: 

Three trackers in this one so could be just a race to watch and enjoy. I will start with Virgin Snow for the Ed Dunlop yard. The Gleneagles filly made her debut at Doncaster at the back end of July. Nibbled at from 20/1 to 16/1 before the race she looked professional and knew her job, she kept on without threatening the winner. I am sure she will know more this time and could have each-way claims against the market principles here. 

National Treasure is very highly thought of by trainer Charlie Appleby. Make no mistake that was a pretty decent debut from this Camelot filly at Newmarket. Always up with the pace, the 500,000 euro purchase just couldn't get past the exciting John Gosden winner Waasyef and even got collared by stablemate Alpen Rose on the line. A lovely looking horse for the future and should improve with distance. 

Sir Michael Stoute looks to also have a nice filly in the name of Tanita. A superbly homebred Frankel filly looked to have put her debut race to bed at Kempton 23 days ago only to run out of steam the last few strides. She drifted out to 9/2 that day and may have needed that run. A step up to a mile and just over three weeks break may bring out more improvement for this well-thought-of Frankel filly. 

Good luck and thanks for reading.

19.15 Kempton Preview (Plus Reviews) (10th July)

Before I start if you’re suffering from depression or feeling suicidal you should click on Hugh Taylor's page because this post could tip you over the edge. 

''What the bloody hell happened to my tracker Ecclesiastical?'' 

I was feeling pretty confident of a place at least given he had been well-supported into 3/1 at the off. Ecclesiastical made a better start this time and was up with the pace for most of the way before weakening the final furlong, maybe he needs to strength up or could be just average at best. Richard Hughes has banged a few 2-year-old winners in of late so the warning signs were there, first, it was Twice as Likely and then Aussie Showstopper and now Old News. 

As frustrated as I am about my last few trackers and bets the one positive I can take out of it is that they have all attracted support and hopefully I can get back to winning ways as soon as possible. 

Timeform Early Declaration Alert With Preview: 

19:15 Kempton 10 Jul 2019: 

Graceful Magic 
Airbrush 
Hot Touch 

15:10 Carlisle 11 Jul 2019: 

Alabama Whitman 

19:15 Kempton 10 Jul 2019. 

Twelve declared for this Novice Fillies Stakes race with £5,822 for the winner. 

Three Horses of note here in what looks a nice race at Kempton. 

Graceful Magic was a 33/1 surprise winner for Eve Johnson Houghton on her debut at Sandown in May. She was then given her chance in the Group 1 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and sent off a 100/1 shot. Graceful Magic was never in with a shout that day and will be more at home in this company but has to shoulder a win penalty against a few unexposed fillies and potentially nice newcomers. 0/9 with 2-year-olds in the past four years at Kempton. 

Airbrush wouldn't be one of Richard Hannon's best 2-year-olds but made a bold show to make all in a Newmarket maiden last month until tiring the last furlong. The impressive winner that day Ultra Violet has an early entry in a Group 2 at Newmarket this week. Airbrush was entered in a Class 2 race at Newmarket this week but takes her chance in this lower grade. 

Allez Sophia is another filly for Eve Johnson Houghton. This Kingman homebred filly has run well-enough on her two starts to date and should put up another bold show. 

Breath of Joy is a newcomer for the Amy Murphy stable. Quite an expensive purchase and with De Sousa on board I will be watching the market with interest. 

Clegane is a newcomer for Ed Walker. Market check needed on debut. 0/2 with 2-year-olds this season. 

Havana Princess is a 10,000 gns purchase for Dr J D Scargill. 

Hot Touch looks a nice type for Hugo Palmer. Made a promising start to her career when beaten by Havana Dawn at Thirsk. This 100,000 euro purchase was entered to run in a Class 2 race at Newmarket but takes her opportunity here instead. Form of debut race doesn't look strong but remains with potential. 

Miarka for Harry Dunlop and owner Susan Roy who has some nice horses in training most notably Charlie Hills trained Garrus. Would have to be a nice filly to be involved here and market check needed. 

Oribi ran in the same race as Airbrush at Newmarket. Would need a significant improvement for this W J Haggas filly to be involved here. 

Predictable Tully for Clive Cox. As always Clive has great record with 2-year-olds and this season hasn't been any different. Seven winners out of eighteen runners with four winning on debut in 2019 is a great stat for any trainer. Having said that Predictable Tully would have to be well-supported to stand any chance here also Clive Cox’s 2-year-old win record in Maiden and Novice races at Kempton the past four seasons reads 0/28. 

Silent Agenda Is a 175,000 gns purchase for owners Clipper Logistics and trained by the unstoppable Archie Watson. After a promising debut she disappointed on her second start at Brighton. If, supported in the betting may stand a chance but I would take a watching brief with her. 

Tambourine Girl is last but not least for Roger Charlton. Pleasing enough debut when a 7/1 chance at Windsor to Knight Shield. 

Looks to have a decent chance after a nice debut run.

Conclusion: A tough race to be confident. Tambourine Girl and Hot Touch are strong in the market at the time of writing, I will wait for the betting to settle and if Airbrush doesn't drift I might have a small each way. Good luck and thanks for reading.

6:45 Kempton (3rd April) Can Just Brilliant finally release his potential?

18.45 Kempton Novice Stakes Class 5 (4 YO Plus) 

Each night I look through the race meetings to see if anything catches my eye, and if nothing does, well I check the next few days meetings, normally the Novice or Maiden races are the ones I check, looking through the Kempton card I noticed what looks to be a nice 4 YO plus Novice Stakes race. 

The betting suggests it’s a three horse race, with the Roger Varian trained Canvassed a warm favourite at the time of writing this, and rightly so after an easy victory on his debut at odds of 11/4, but he does have to shoulder a winning penalty for that victory which makes life a little more difficult. Ocala is another short price runner for the Andrew Balding yard who also looks to have a good chance. 

The next horse is the one that caught my eye, Just Brilliant (pictured)was potentially Peter Chappel-Hyams best 2-year-old back in 2017, who has an excellent pedigree being a half brother to Group 1 Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel and was bought by owner Peter Makin for 150,000 guineas. 

Just Brilliant was entered in the National Stakes(Group 1), Royal Lodge Stakes(Group 2), Dewhurst Stakes(Group 1) and the Vertem Futurity Stakes(Group 1), but for whatever reason he didn’t make the track until October 2017 at Newmarket, making a winning debut under a strong ride from Ryan Moore. 

After a 194-day break he was pitched in at the deep end, the Newmarket Craven Stakes(Group3), a 25/1 shot and ridden by Jamie Spencer he was never involved against some serious rivals and for whatever reason that was his last race, and his promising future career seemed to have come to an abrupt end. 

Am not sure how he will run today, and will also be hindered by top weight but the positive is the great man himself James Doyle hops on board. I will check the market myself to see if he's fancied but even if I don’t bet, I would love to see this one time potentially smart 2-year-old come back to life with a win against a couple of decent rivals. 

Midweek review and preview: 

I mentioned in my Brocklesby review the Mick Channon trained Birkenhead as one to look out for, and he was back out yesterday, just 3 days after finishing a creditable sixth in the Brocklesby, backed into favourite he could never strike a blow against the impressive Archie Watson winner Electric Ladyland. 

I also mentioned on my twitter feed yesterday the Ralph Beckett trained Fragrant Belle who had a Class 2 entry last season, and although she finished 5/8 after being tapped for toe two furlongs out, she stayed on really strong and will appreciate a longer trip next time out. 

If you looked at my recent trainer profile series on John Gosden you will have seen I mentioned his profitable record with 3-year-old horses running in maiden races in April, his first runner El Misk obliged at unbackable odds of 8/11 on Monday night. 

Looking at the next few days he has Kosciuszko entered to run on Friday or Saturday and could be worth checking out. Thanks for reading and if you want to follow me on twitter just search for @craignewton175.

Second Season Sires to Look Out for in 2019

Trying to find a money spinner can take a long time but hopefully, these statistics can at least make a small profit. I looked through the first season sires for the 2018 season to see if I can get any statistics to keep one step ahead for the 2019 season. 

It’s no surprise that No Nay Never leads the way in 2018 sires list with the superb Ten Sovereigns unbeaten, winning a Group 1 and 3 in his first season. I have had a good look at the statistics but can’t find much interest to make a profit. I found four very interesting sires to keep in mind in the following months, especially Charm Spirit. 

Australia has a few interesting statistics, if we look at the results of the sire’s progeny in 2018 it was a decent season but backing each horse would have left you a few quid down. As always we can narrow that down a bit so as the saying goes horses for courses. 

Kempton seems a course the fillies thrive on, with the slower all-weather surface being a hit. The offspring statistics read in 2018, 5 runners with 4 winning in maiden or novice races, giving an 80.0 per cent win strike rate with a 475.0 per cent win return at starting price, with two first time out winners and two second timeout winners. Beyond reason being his top performer with a rating of 107, let's hope it continues into the new Flat season. 

Kingman (pictured) offspring performed very well in two-year-old novice races last season in all types of ground and distances would have seen 30 runners with 11 wins giving a 36.7 win strike rate and 214.3 per cent win return at starting price. 

Sangarius looks an exciting prospect for the 2019 season, this Kingman colt already has a rating of 109 after finishing fourth to the mighty To Darn Hot in the Group 1 Dewhurst stakes in October. 

Charm Spirit is another sire worth following, the French-trained colt ran twice only as a two-year-old, before strengthening up over the winter and coming back even better. On his reappearance, he won the Group 3 Paul de Moussac, and better was to follow later in the season with three Group 1s in a row, highlight being a great win in Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes at Ascot. 

Charm Spirit seemed to enjoy the soft going but looking at the statistics of the offspring tells a different story so I will be concentrating on maiden races, good and good to firm going only and priced under 15/2. The profit looks good, with 20 runs and 9 wins giving a 45.0 per cent win strike rate and a 206.0 per cent win return at starting price with Yourtimeisnow, a useful prospect for the 2019 season. 

Kuroshio could be an outsider to pop out a winner or two, his progeny have been average but with 4 wins from 12 bets giving a 33.3 per cent win strike rate and a 142.7 per cent win return at starting price in novice company, it’s worth keeping an eye out for this Australian sprinter’s offspring in the months ahead. 

So, as always no guaranteed winners but enough statistics to help along the way.