Craig's Betting Blog - 2YO Horse Racing Tips

2YO BETTING BLOG

Sunday 19 May 2024

Sunday's 2yo Racing Tips: 2:15 Ripon (19th May)

2:15 Ripon - 

6f Hammond Associates Celebrating Yorkshire Wooden Spoon EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 4) (2yo)

Going: Good

Runners: 7 

The Wooden Spoon EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes. Firstly, no one, generally, wants the wooden spoon but on this occasion it is worth £5,234. This Class 4 race has a relatively small field with a mix of of form horses and debutantes. 

For additional resources, check out the race here on the Racing Post

At the head of the market is George Boughey's Night In Paris who ran over course and distance back in April, when running a creditable second on soft ground to Assertively, who was a beaten favourite [4th] when running under a penalty next time out at Beverley. Night In Paris, a daughter of No Nay Never, was beaten a short head on debut when fancied in the betting. It's worth noting that she was entered to run in the Lily Agnes but withdrawn due to 'unsuitable ground'. This even-money favourite sets a fair level and looks a straightforward filly who is likely to set the pace. I have little doubt she will run a big race but the question with any horse when it comes to price to chance, is she vale? 

Titian Blue is a newcomer for William Haggas racing in the familiar silks of Cheveley Park Stud. This daughter of Blue Point out of a French-raced mare who won on debut and placed at Group class is fancied in the betting. I did note that she had been entered for a Class 2 race which adds to her hopes. Haggas can be very hit and miss with his debutantes although he does have winners early season. The trainer features a 24% strike rate with his juveniles at this course which speaks well. 

Richard Hannon has been a touch quiet with his juveniles this season. Thecoffeepoddotco races in the ownership of Middleham Park Racing and cost 45,000gns at the yearling sales. Hannon is another trainer who can be difficult to get right on debut. In fact, his first-time-out statistics aren't very good at all. However, they have plenty of talent in their stable and it is often about the individual horse. Also, it is worth noting that Hannon has a 31% strike rate with his two-year-olds at this course which is very good.

Beaujolais Nouveau represents Ben Haslam's stable who have very few two-year-olds these days. His father had a few more back in the day. This chestnut filly, a daughter of Twilight, wasn't overly fancied when making he debut in a small field at Pontefract but looked to run with some credit behind the talented Francisco's Piece who just failed to make it two out of two at York when racing under a penalty. I'm always slightly careful with horses running in small races as they can be flattered. However, it is interesting to note that Beaujolais Nouveau was entered to run in the Marygate Listed race at York. True, she would have been a very big price that day. but it does suggest the stable have some hope for her. In fact, if fancied in the betting she may well hold each-way claims. 

Charlie Johnston hasn't been flying in the winners like his father but the stable have a large string of juveniles and should be respected. Substitute, a daughter of Bungle Inthejungle cost 32,000 euros at the yearling sales. May is one of the stables better months for two-year-old winners although most win at shorter than bigger odds. At present, this filly is priced 16/1 so you would imagine support will come if fancied. 

Aye Up Lass hails from Declan Carroll's stable. Zak Wheatley, the 5lb apprentice takes the ride. This filly is owned by The Good Bad Ugly & Deaf. At present, she is one of the outsiders priced 33/1. Generally, the stables debutantes go well when priced 10/1 and less, so you'd be looking for the money to come to give this one serious claims. 

The final runner has raced twice. Harmonia, trained by David Evans, has valuable race experience but may need further improvement to test these today. She is priced 50/1 with bookmakers. 

Conclusion: If you are interested in betting in this maiden race it is worth checking out the free bets at freebetsuk.uk. This doesn't look the easiest of races to assess and the favourite, Night In Paris will take some beating. However, the odds on her are pretty meager and there could well be some opposition. It's a shame this isn't an eight-runner race with the option of betting 3-places each-way. I would be interested in seeing whether Beaujolais Nouveau can go close at double-figure odds and give the Haslam team a rare juvenile winner. Keep an eye on the betting as it may well help. 

Saturday 11 May 2024

Saturday's Racing Tips - Inittowinit (11th May)

14.20 Nottingham 

It's pretty tough trying to find a 2-year-old winner for the blog when I don't have a clue if the market will be in favour or not come race time so I'm gonna go with a 3-year-old tracker instead that will hopefully run a race.


ARAMRAM for the Richard Hannon team was well regarded last year and ended up in my trackers. Hannon does fill me with fear as it's hard to catch him right. The Blue Point colt started off in a tough race and was put in his place by the impressive Ghostwriter, yes ARAMRAM was a country mile behind Ghostwriter but we have nothing like that here to contend with. The dam Queen’s Pearl was half decent too, winning three times in a short career. Aramrams siblings include a couple of 80 rated horses. The Blue Point colt drops in trip and has had a wind op. I'm hoping this helps and we can get a run for our money with Sam Hitchcoft on board. 


ARAMRAM 15/2 1ST


Racingtictac 


16.10 Lingfield SONMARG


A horse I am tracking and feel like he should come good at some stage granted the right conditions. He is a huge price of 14/1 in a place. 


He is a brother to Gulmarg from the same connections who went on to win twice over 7f including one on turf. I tracked him too and it's an obvious connection of bias here but still feel this one has something to recommend him here.


He has come in for support the last twice, though in a small field sprint last time proving inadequate. He could not quicken off the furious pace round Chelmsford and was left alone. He steps back up to 7f here and that is more in line with what he wants right now. Needed every yard of the 6f trip when winning as a 2yo and this should see him in a much better light now. 


He made his handicap debut on reappearance, back in March at Kempton over a mile and took a hold and restrained off a steady pace. Not how you are going to win, at least on the all weather. He kept going and came home nice enough for hands and heels riding.


So in theory, the last two runs are excusable in my opinion and he drops 5lb for his trouble, to a mark of 73. Which makes him look well weighted, given his 2yo form. The last time he appeared in a 7f turf race on good ground, he was attempting to concede 6lb to two horses now rated 88 and he made a race of it.


The step up to 7f on turf and granted goodish ground should suit and the tongue tie is reapplied and this could spark an improvement and he definitely warrants an interest here at a nice enough price for me.


SONMARG 12/1 4TH



Equinefutures 



245 HAYDOCK - Zozimus was the starting point and has no doubt been in and out of many a notebook/tracker since joining The Horse Watchers and David O’Meara (January last year). 

He has nearly been rewarded on a few occasions whilst certainly disappointing on others. 

This year, following a couple of ‘dwelt in rear….. never near to challenge’ runs at Newcastle over 7f, he ran unusually prominently at Chelmsford (1M) before taking it up after three furlong and going a few lengths clear in what proved to be an unsustainable effort before weakening.


The following runs at Southwell, behind Tropez Power (7f) and latterly behind Crack Shot (Newmarket 1M) were more like it. He’s clearly in good heart and back in what looks like an average class 4 at a track he has run well at,  it’s no surprise to see him favourite.  However, Zozimus (0/22 - 1/11 on sand), is yet to win on turf and dropping back to 7f in a race where there really isn’t much pace may not be the answer, especially if holdup tactics are employed.


Therein lies the angle to take a chance with the likely pacesetter EAGLE DAY who has improved a little over the winter on sand.


Whilst you have to forgive the last run, his penultimate third behind Street Kid was a bold effort and a PB for me (does have a couple of higher RPR’s). 


Racing Post comment _‘Both wins on the AW and worrying that his turf figures are inferior_’ however he has only had 5 runs on turf and weakened on soft ground on a couple of those. 


Joe Fanning is booked who is the man for the job when it comes to setting workable fractions and there does not look to be much pressure on the lead. I think he’s worth a go at what looks like a double figure price. 


Just Call Me Pete is one to keep an eye on; had a quiet run LTO at Newbury and steps up to 7f for the second time (out the rear throughout in only the previous attempt) . He’s another without a turf win to his name but is well capable in this grade and potentially easy pace could help with the extra furlong.


GL GL !! 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞


EAGLE DAY 11/2 5TH

 


Pro Horse Racing 


3.00 Lingfield: Imperial Sovereign


This looks like a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar.... at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though it's hard to fancy him on what he's done so far.


On the other hand, he'll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that. 


Camelot's son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn't find himself too far back.


The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he's a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet. 


The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you'd expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he's sown in three career runs to date. 


Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year. 


Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn't give the appearance of a Derby prospect. 


No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner.


That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.


He showed a likeable attitude, putting his head down and answering every call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.


From a pedigree perspective the trip isn't impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he's bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level. 


The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay on the trip a little bit better. 


In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel certainly overpriced in this open Derby Trial.


IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN 11/1 6TH


Advised bet: Each way Lucky 15.


FINISHING POSITIONS: 1/4/5/6


Thanks for reading.



Monday 6 May 2024

Monday's Horse Racing Info (6th May)

My selections yesterday ran pretty well so I can't even be disappointed with that even though I lost. I said Newmarket is tough and I was right. My first selection was River Seine for Karl Burke, great pedigree and I managed to get 8s, late money as I'd hoped and off we go as River Seine was out like a rocket, a touch keen but bounding along nicely, I could see she was tiring as the impressive winner Mountain Breeze loomed up with a furlong to go, game over as the Appleby filly put the race to bed, River Seine hung on for second in what was a decent effort. Mountain Breeze looks Ascot bound.

Next up was Tropical Storm for Andrew Balding, another who I took 8s early on, with a run under his belt already and support in the market I was quietly confident. Symbol Of Honour was slowly away as Tropical was tracking the pace moving nicely, go on my son as he quickened up the last furlong, I could see The Actor inching closer and closer, the line was coming, Tropical holding on, noooooo as Levey got one last push out of The Actor, great race even though Tropical was beaten a neck. 

On to today, it looks pretty tough, a couple of outside fancies and a few cliff trackers.

13.55 Beverley 

It's a class 2 race but doesn't seem to have much depth to it, doesn't make it any easier but it's trying to find some value against the Karl Burke favourite. One angle I'm looking at here is trainer owner combo, worked for me a few weeks ago with Jayvee for the Brian Ellison and Mr P Boyle combo, incidentally Jayvee finished ahead of Larchill lass and Call Me Harswell here at Beverley. Sybaris Jewel is a cheap purchase at 4,000 euros. The pedigree is not shouting at speed which is concerning but the trainer knows best. Brian Ellison has started off on fire with 2yos, actually two from two so far 22 and 16/1 winners so I'm waiting for 20 plus and play a small each way. Azuinthejungle is related to another Nigel Tinkler runner Maybe Even Never who won first timeout in 2021 at 125/1 for these owners, can lightning strike twice, I very much doubt but as Nigels debut runners usually need the run but you never know.

Sybaris Jewel 9/1 3rd

Azuinthejungle 50/1 Unp


Bath 14.50

Hot favourite here in Star Anthem, could hose up and probably will, one tracker Siegen for Richard Hannon, I imagine a nice type and if the favourite fluffs his lines could take advantage. No value so no bet.

Siegen 3/1 5th


15.10 Windsor

Who doesn't have a cliff horse? I probably have a few and Monkey Island is one, very well regarded last season for Brian Meehan but to be honest hasn't done anything, maybe I'm being unfair as the last race was pretty hot with the winner winning a listed race and the second fourth in the Guineas, it's Monkeys third run today so always the concern about the handicap route but with Levey in the hot seat I'm hoping they are trying, it's one of them horses that you've followed that you want to be decent but could end up a pig, had a little dabble at 20s as he's been gelded and looks a weaker race.

Monkey Island NR


14.35 Windsor

As above for Miletus another third timeout, I had a decent bet last timeout and was pretty disappointing, another well regarded last season and could be handicap route, no bet as yet as still unsure.

Miletus 16/1 1st


Good luck on a fine bank holiday Monday.

Author: Craig

Sunday 5 May 2024

Sunday's 2yo Horse Racing (5th May)

If you don't know by now how obsessed I am with 2-year-old horses you'll never know. Despite a few indifferent results with my selections for the Inittowinit weekend bets I'm doing alright so far (kiss of death).

This season is more about value and being a bit more disciplined, that's not to say I'm still not doing stupid bets because a few have slipped through the net and annoyed me.


What am I doing differently this year then? As I said it's all about value and some of these short priced favourites are worth taking on, I mean some are so short on debut you'd have to be insane to back them. We've had 38 2yo races this season so far and 9 favourites have won, yeah trying to find the winner against them is difficult I know but with 10 winners at double figure odds it's fantastic trying to find them. Javee was one for me that I backed at 22s, nice pedigree and decent owner it was well worth a go in a eight runner field with a 2/1 unraced favourite.


Older readers of the blog will know these are not tips just my personal opinion and trackers, I might get a few winners and probably get a few losers but good or bad it will be here.

First thing it's alright identifying my possible bet but the stats have to be right too so more often than not I'll try wait for a nice price and pray my bet is supported, if it drifts out I might get rid with a small loss, now that has gone against me at times when they have still won and drives me mad. A late bet is another I try when the market has settled and sorted itself out but usually the best way for me is to get on when I think it's the right price then as I say pray it's backed.


A few tough races tomorrow.


16.15 Newmarket 


I did say to myself last season no more bets at Newmarket as they are always competitive and the two today are no different, I'm sure we'll get a few winners out of these races so it's worth noting them down. The favourite could be anything for Charlie Appleby and with the pedigree I imagine a very nice horse, no value whatsoever, I was looking at Jakarta for Cole and familiar owner Mrs Fitri Hay. Dam Pink Symphony was very nice for Cole and Hay and has produced a family of winners including Highland Chief, I'm just thinking maybe needs a bit further so a slight doubt. The one I'll be hoping drifts to a bit of value is the Karl Burke trained River Seine, the 100,000 euro Soldiers Call filly has plenty of speed in her pedigree, dam Indian Ink was a class act for Richard Hannon senior back in the day, Burke's filly is related to several winners and if drifting to a price I'll get on and hope shes backed or I'll know the outcome.


River Seine 11/2 2nd



16.50 Newmarket 


Another tough one and again we all know how good Appleby is so I'm not even bothering talking about his, I'm looking to take them on hoping they have a bad day or need the run. 

Tropical Storm for Andrew Balding who has already had a run when looking a bit inexperienced and keen on debut at Newbury last month, easy to back at 17/2 that day. Tropical Storm is related to Purosangue trained by Andrew who is a very nice type winning the Rockingham last year, with the experience under his belt and Murphy on board hopefully he'll be more streetwise today. I'll hold out for a price and hopefully another who needs backing to stand a chance. 


Tropical Storm 6/1 2nd


14.40 Salisbury 


Convo and Fregola (NR) are both trackers.


Convo 5/2 3rd


14.35 Hamilton 


A 3yo tracker has popped up here and I'm not sure what to think about her. Port And Starburd was well-regarded last season by trainer Craig Lidster but has been off the tracker since a promising fourth at Beverley last season. I'll probably watch if I'm honest.


Port And Starburd 33/1 6th


Thanks for reading and always think value, we don't have to bet if the price isn't right.


Author: Craig




Saturday 4 May 2024

Saturday's Racing Tips: Inittowinit (4th May)

With the 2yo season a month in it's still early days for me but I've had a few first timeout winners for a change this season, Jayvee being the highlight when winning at Beverley last month. I've got a couple of races to choose from this week with Yarmouth and Thirsk, both look tricky if I'm honest but I'll give the Thirsk race a go.


CraigNewton 


13.40 Thirsk -


I have a shortlist of three here. 


First is the once raced Al Hussar for the Grant Tuer stable who finished seventh on debut at Wolverhampton last month, a 17/2 shot that day when missing the break but staying on at the finish, related to a couple of winners and not one to write off.


End Of Story is another only because trainer Kevin Ryan does like a winner here.

The one I'm taking a chance on is the 32,000 euro purchase JM Jhingree for John & Sean Quinn. The dam La Pergola ran in France and won over five furlongs also with a bit of cut in the ground. Owners MPs Racing & The Ayrshire Tradesmen 1 had a winner at this course last year with Love Wars for same trainer, sometimes I like to look at little things like that when not much to go on, I think the betting should be the key here, the more support the better but over tens I'd be giving it up. The Dandy Man gelding is bred for speed and is around 14s as I write this, the one that the bookies have shortened is the Middleham Park Loughnane runner Lexington Jet, it's all about value with these early 2yos, if you have seen the results so far this season it's definitely worth taking the favourites on.


JM Jhingree 18/1 (taken) 5th



Equinefutures


4:20 THIRSK -


John Butler is a tricky trainer to call but there’s a good chance this race is seen as a good opportunity for KAARANAH who’s last two runs have caught the eye.

Equally effective on sand and turf, he has good form at this level and better on ground conditions ranging from Good through Soft.


FlatStats show Butler is 0-20 at Thirsk but it’s a small sample and the booking of Oisin Orr is interesting and has a good record here.


Of the others, Golden Melody is consistent and likely thereabouts but seems a little hard to win with. 


I’ll likely save on Kynsa who ran well on first run for K P De Foy at Southwell (another eye-catching jockey booking with Callum Rodriguez piloting).

Beylerbeyi ran well stepping up to a mile LTO and a repeat puts him in the mix.

Young Fire has tumbled down the weights but hasn’t shown anything to hint at a return to form as yet. 

GL GL !! 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞


Kaaranah NR




Prohorseracing 


1.45 Newmarket: Mum's Tipple


Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races shows that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding. 


He's not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.


He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won't be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark - but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.


In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.


He travelled in rear and wasn't advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eye catching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest, only to be denied by a head in the end.


He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.


Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating at Ascot. 


Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be run at a furious pace, it's likely a game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I'm hopeful he'll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.


Mum's Tipple 9/1 4th


Racingtictac


16.45 Newmarket EYE OF DUBAI 


First past the post and demoted to 2nd last time in a 7f handicap at this course. 


He has to take a 4lb rise on the chin but he did an awful lot wrong there from leaving the paddock to the start and in the race itself. He was highly exuberant and very keen so the drop down to 6f looks like a good move. 


This is no doubt a much tougher race, up two grades and into a C2 0-100 from that C4 0-80 but he looks like has scope for much more improvement given racing far too keenly LTO, it is testament to him that he clung on and that is also despite the jockey largely riding hands and heels up to the last 100 yards or so. He pulled clear with the runner up who was awarded the race and that one is a highly progressive individual who was more amenable and ridden with cover.


William Buick is a very interesting booking albeit he has only ever had one ride for the yard. 


I would definitely say this one is one to follow and because he is still seemingly learning the job, i would suggest he still has easily something left up his sleeve and now he has that all important course experience, he is well worth his place in this line up and it is interesting to me that he takes his chance considering he is still eligible for easier races.


Eye Of Dubai 5/2 UNP


Advised bet Each way lucky 15. FINISHED 5/NR/4/UNP


Thanks for reading and good luck.

 

Saturday 13 April 2024

Saturday's Tips: Inittowinit (13th April)

You can't say we aren't consistent anyway as Equinefutures gave us another winner when Auric’s done the business for him at 7/2, hopefully we can get a winner or two again this week.

CraigNewton 


No 2-year-olds again for me this week but the trackers are building up and I'm confident I can get a few winners this season.


16.25 Yarmouth 13 April 2024


Fighter Command looks pretty decent for Gosden after finishing second on his debut at Kempton in December. Related to Gosdens Bouquet who won on her 3-year-old seasonal debut and rated 94, be no surprise to see the Dubawi colt go one better here but I don't do things easy, I'll throw what could be a bigger priced dark horse in, I do say could just remember that. EBEN ZAABEEL who made his debut at Newmarket last September, not fancied that day at 18s, the Sea The Stars colt wasn't given a hard time, he was drawn low that day which looked to be a disadvantage with three of the first four all high numbers. This is a step up in trip here and looking at his dam Yazzy who raced middle distance in France at a decent level I don't see why it should be a problem for Eben Zaabeel, I just hope he does himself justice. Trainer Hills thought well of this colt last season and I hope Even kickstarts his 3yo career. I imagine a big price so it will be each way for me personally. I think the betting will be the key here, if well backed I would be more positive but if drifting obviously it's a big negative, you never know but the stats don't speak well if Eben drifts, as I write this Eben Zaabeel is 14s.


EBEN ZAABEEL 16/1 5TH



Equinefutures 


710 WOLV - RADIO GOO GOO


A big field but I am not sure there’s much any of them can do if RADIO GOO GOO does what comes naturally here.

It was a terrific effort LTO at Kempton where she did a little too much too soon and the form is strong (Al Barez winning having run better than finishing position previously versus Ferrous, Knebworth & Bosh).

There’s definite potential in some unexposed 3yo’s but they will have to be well forward to beat their senior this time of year.

From the inside trap and likely not much pressure on the lead, Rossa Ryan can pop her out from stall one and control things from the front. 

She’ll be hard to pass and may yet to have her finest hour! ….. GL GL!! 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞


RADIO GOO GOO 2/1 5TH


Prohorseracing 


6.00 Yarmouth: BERRY CLEVER


This looks like an ideal opportunity for Berry Clever to get off the mark after a highly promising seasonal reappearance at Southwell recently. 


He was significantly hampered soon after the start and couldn’t move closer to the pace as a result, which wasn't ideal in that race. Nonetheless he travelled well into the straight and made initially quite strong progress against the dreaded inside rail.


One can forgive him for getting tired in the closing stages and you would hope he can improve from having this run under his belt, in any case.


Still winless, but the gelding was somewhat ‘unfortunate' in a couple of his runs as a juvenile last season. There is enough in his profile to believe he's capable of winning a race off his current mark. 63 could prove a little bit lenient, now that he also moves up in trip. 


On turf, only his second run on grass, and over a mile, which often brings out improvement for Expert Eye offspring, and  dropping slightly in grade too, with De Sousa once again on board, he looks an intriguing horse in an open contest. 


The rain is the one question mark I have, if it turns the ground properly soft. It's that lingering doubt I have whether he'll get home in that case. But the pace may not be overly hot, so it's worth the risk.


BERRY CLEVER 7/2 2ND



Racingtictac 


17.30 Yarmouth 


STONE CIRCLE 


Not much to choose from, if I am strict in my discipline and not straying from my set criteria. Anyway, onto this one. He won this race last year on his reappearance and is only 1lb higher this time round. He followed up later on last year over this course and distance, taking his record here to three wins from six starts. It came in a fairly hot C3 handicap and the two behind him are now rated 91 and 94. I don’t think a mark of 75 should really be hindering this guy if he again is ready to rumble straight up. Also intrigued me Michael Bell sends this one to the course and also Hector Crouch ( combo won last year and 21% SR since 2023 ) comes for the one ride. It will be an expensive day out to go home with nothing and suggest they are again going for the prize. Not too fussed about tactics here, he seems versatile enough to race as they see fit on the day. Over the minimum trip, you either go with or go home and with a few question marks hanging over some of these, I do not see why he can’t be getting competitive in this off what again is a handy enough looking mark.


STONE CIRCLE 7/1 3RD



ADVISED BET: LUCKY 15 WIN - 5TH, 5TH, 2ND, 3RD


Good luck and thanks for reading.



Friday 5 April 2024

Saturday Selections From Team Inittowinit (6th April)

Racingtictac at least gave us a nice winner last week with Bosh over at Lingfield, we didn't want to peak too early so that will do for week one)

My 2yo selection Additive actually ran a nice debut to finish second staying on nicely at the business end. Nothing for me this week as it's quiet


Equinefutures



1:30 KEMP - AURIC 1ST 7/2


There was a lot to like about AURIC’s debut run a few weeks ago at Wolver where he broke well and was dropped in. He wasn’t asked for anything until the home straight when the race was already over but finished the race as well as the winner and should improve for that experience.


There was also a lot to like about Ethandun’s come back run who was slightly cut off by the winner when starting a move forward at the 3 pole; worth a watch as it is  subtle but perhaps shows what can make a difference (happenstance or race winning move by George Rooke 🤔). Ethandun’s momentum is interrupted enough to delay his run and he can’t get competitive however, it does show some promise. 


The literal form line (No Half Measures) ties in with the selection however, AURIC gets the nod having what looked like an educational introduction. 


Oisin Murphy taking over indicates they mean business today!!!  


GL GL 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞!!



Prohorseracing


2.50 Chelmsford - REVERBERATION 4/1 5TH


Veteran Reverberation should have a pretty good chance in this race to land a seventh career victory. Consistent and uncomplicated, he is rather likely to enjoy the run of the race from the front in this field.


Not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uncomplicated way toward the front of the pack. 


Off his current mark he's handicapped to go really well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggest he's got another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances. 


The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, giving his credentials here real substance. 


The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well. 


The main danger I see most likely in top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance.  


However, she was held up in her runs as well, and many in this field seem to prefer a good bit of cover and seeing the back of rivals for most of the race. 


The scenario should seriously benefit a consistent in-form horse like Reverberation, who will have no excuses with the run of the race guaranteed, as long as he has a decent start. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade is another positive.



Racingtictac 


16.55 Kempton KNEBWORTH 3/1 4TH


Here I am continuing my love affair with this horse, there are plenty of reasons to be positive about his chances once again. He is out again fairly quick, only two weeks ago, he won at Doncaster on soft ground. He did have to battle there to get back up but came out last season and won off a seven day break, so proved he can back up a performance. Perhaps also hugely in his favour here is his yards hot streak of form, 9/21 in the last fortnight.

Knebworth bumped into Ferrous on penultimate run ( Wolves ) who opposes again here but does have a 9lb swing in the weights, due to the claimer Ethan Jones again in the saddle this time ( was not on when these two clashed ) so he is weighted to reverse those placings and Ferrous is drawn in eleven which could hinder. Again pointed last time out, he was keen early on in the race and restrained before getting outpaced turning in, second wind kicked in and he came home well there to finish on Ferrous’ quarters. I can see this course ( Kempton ) suiting this one better, with a longer straight to play with, particularly the way again he showed his determination last time at Doncaster where it does take some getting on the straight course, the others to race up on the pace with him dropped away so his performance can be marked up and it was a fairly quick time considering the conditions.


Knebworth should really be getting competitive for me here, carrying only 8st9lb effectively off a mark of 81, yard is in terrific form and drawn in two, ideal for a prominent runner, riding will hopefully be no worry with him getting the trip very well. Drawn next to the obvious pace angle in stall one and that could even be an aid, track him and keep some cover before kicking on ( that guy only 1-25 on AW and appearing to be aiming high here off the mark )

Cheekpieces obviously gave him a lift LTO and he could still have something up his sleeve and there are questions surrounding the others ( decided against including another 100 words on them ) . Hopefully I will get a decent price on the day of the race,  value would of course be key.


Advised bet: Win Trixie: 1ST (7/2), 5TH, 4TH


Good luck.