Tuesday, 25 January 2022

The Gambler's Guide to Understanding Andrew Balding's Two-year-old Race Horses

From my extensive research of two-year-old horse trainers, here is my assessment of Andrew Balding, Park House Stables, Kingsclere. 

This research covers two-year-old horses and sample of almost 700 horses covering the Flat turf season (March/April - November). 

Debutantes:

Debutantes feature a 7% win rate. 

Debut winners range in price from 5/6 to 50/1. One of few trainers who has a healthy supply of double-figure priced winners. 

Short Priced Debutantes

In general, debutantes priced 11/4 and less are disappointing and lack value. It is a fair indicator that short-priced debutantes have ability and a greater chance of winning on their second start, although they don't detail outstanding statistics. 

When Are Debutantes Most Likely To Win?

Balding isn't an early-season two-year-old trainer. In fact, you are unlikely to see any of his juveniles winning until the month of May. The latter part of the season sees most debut winners with over 50% detailed from August - November. 

Two-Year-Olds On Their Second Start 

Like most trainers, two-year-olds are most likely to win on their second start compared with their debut. Over the duration of this study (many years) horses won more times by a fair percentage. Their odds range from odds of 1/3 - 125/1. 

Interesting Facts

Although winners on their second start can win at extreme odds, in general, horses do not win at speculative odds. The vast majority win at single-figure odds. 

Good luck. 

Sunday, 23 January 2022

Frankel 2yos To Follow (2022 ) Part One

It’s that time of the year again when I look through the Frankel offspring and hope I can find a superstar for the season ahead. Here are a few that I hope will make the grade this season. It’s always easy to look for the nice pedigrees but there is no guarantee they will make the grade or even race. 

UNNAMED Frankel / Anna Salai Trainer: 

Charlie Appleby. 

Dam Anna Salai was a decent 3-year-old for trainer Andre Fabre winning the Group 3 Prix De La Grotte in 2010 and finishing second in the Irish 1000 Guineas so it was no surprise to see she has already produced a nice offspring in the Charlie Appleby 4-year-old colt Adayar also by Frankel. Adayar won his maiden second timeout as a 2-year-old and went on to win the Derby and the King George Vl and Queen Elizabeth Stakes in an unbelievable season last year. The signs are good for the Godolphin colt, one for later in the season.

UNNAMED Frankel / Chrysanthemum 

Dam Chrysanthemum was a lovely type for trainer David Wachman. The Danehill Dancer 14-year-old mare was a lovely 2-year-old winning first timeout then winning the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes on only her second ever run, went on to win the Group 3 Lodge Park Stakes in her short career. John Gosden has had a couple of her offspring including Cunco who won first timeout as a 2-year-old and went onto win the Group 3 Classic Trial at three. 

COOLER Frankel / Heat Haze Dam 

Heat Haze is sadly no longer with us but certainly enjoyed a fruitful life. I’m hoping Heat Haze has produced one final nice offspring here to add to her full-brother Mirage Dancer who was a group winner himself for Michael Stoute. Dam Heat Haze was no slouch herself winning the Prix Coronation for trainer Andre Fabre before moving to America and winning the Group 1 Beverly D Stakes in 2003. 

GENTLE LIGHT Frankel / Light Music 

I do love a full-brother or sister to wonder horse Frankel and we have another here who is owned by the Queen. Dam Light Music was also owned and bred by the Queen, the Elusive Quality mare was a decent 2-year-old winning two races including a Listed race at Newbury. Gentle Light is a full-sister to the William Haggas trained Light Refrain who took a few races to get going but added a Listed race at Nottingham and the Group 3 Summer Stakes to her name last season, enjoys a bit of cut in the ground. 

UNNAMED Frankel / Minidress 

Trainer: Charlie Appleby 

A half-brother to the Charlie Appleby Dubawi four-year-old gelding Rebel's Romance who won his first two races as a 2-year-old and picked up a nice group 2 at Meydan last year, loves the artificial surface. Dam Minidress only raced four times, came second on her final appearance in a Listed race at Goodwood in 2012. 

UNNAMED Frankel / Rumoush 

I will be surprised if trainer Owen Burrows doesn’t have this Frankel bay filly this season as he knows this family well. Dam Rumoush was another lightly raced filly who ran to a decent level for trainer Marcus Tregoning winning a Listed race and running a belter to finish third in the Oaks. Rumoush offspring include Ojooba, Talaayeb, Muntazah all decent types and full-brother Wadilsafa trained by Owen who contested decent races throughout his career. A nice type for the second half of the season. 


Thanks for reading and look out for the second part of my Frankel 2-year-olds to follow.

Monday, 17 January 2022

3yo Raced Horses for 2022

I did start off with well over a hundred three-year-old trackers but looking through them again I’ve got rid of a good few. I have noted a few here that will hopefully get a win or two this year. 

1: CHEF DE PARTIE is by Siyouni and out of Nessina, trained by Roger Charlton and bought for 95,000 gns at the October Yearling Sales out of book 2. The Siyouni colt made a pleasing debut in a class 2 race at Doncaster last september. A couple of winners have come out of the race so I can see Chef De Partie picking up a win sooner rather than later. Hollie Doyle steadied Chef De Partie at the back until making her move around the three furlong marker. I did like the way he was moving until getting squeezed up around the furlong pole before running on again. Chef De Partie is a half-brother to Extra Elusive who is a decent type also trained by Roger Charlton. A step up in trip and the winter behind him should bring out the improvement to kick start his career. 

2: EMILY DICKINSON is by Dubawi and out of Chiquita, trained by Aidan O’Brien. The Irish trainers 2-year-olds are a bigger mystery than Lord Lucan. I mean he has that many who knows what to expect when they turn three but I have a feeling Emily Dickinson is better than her debut at Leopardstown back in October when held up at the back before making some headway to finish tenth of fifthteen, I’m pretty sure we will see a better horse than that position suggests this season. 

3: KINGDOM COME is by Kingman and out of Monami, trained by Clive Cox. The Kingman colt has raced twice already, first time out ran green so I will forget that run but second time out in a big field at Doncaster looked a bit more professional and with luck in running I think he would have been in a better place to challenge. Kingdom Come was settled at the rear by Kirby in the far group, looking back most of the action took place on the near side and Kingdom Come only got involved late on and it was too late by then. A half-brother to the 2020 German Group 1 Oaks winner Miss Yoda. I am looking forward to seeing the 580,000 euro Breeze-Up purchases next run. 

4: MAKKARI is by Galileo and out of Sobetsu, trained by Charlie Appleby. The Galileo filly has an excellent pedigree being out of Sobetsu who was an excellent type for Charlie in her two seasons racing, winning a couple of group races in France as a 3-year-old and coming third in the Fillies Mile at 2. Makkari was easy to back on debut and showed signs of greenness when slow out the stalls for her first race at Kempton last December. The 7/2 shot made up ground and stuck to her task when reaching the cut away, personally I thought she had a lot more in the locker but coasted home. One to keep on the right side of this year. 

5: OSRAIGE is by Siyouni and out of Fork Lightning, trained by Joseph O’Brien. It still gives me nightmares watching the debut of Osraige because I had a bet and was in with a decent chance until Osraige didn’t take too kindly to being whipped and veered left when in with a great chance of winning at Dundalk in November. The 250,000 euro purchase is better than that and can hopefully stay on a straight line when we see her next out.

6: PRINCESSE D'OR is by Frankel and out of Fleche D’or, trained by Charlie Appleby. I really hope this Frankel filly is better than seen on debut at Kempton in November. Costing a whopping 2 million at the October Yearling Sales. The Godolphin filly comes from an excellent family including the great Golden Horn. Princesse D’or was well-supported on debut but ran a stinker, definitely green but didn’t do much to be honest. It’s a gamble but I’m willing to take a chance on her. 

7: TUESDAY is by Galileo and out of Lillie Langtry, trained by Aidan O’Brien. One that went into many notebooks after a decent debut at Curragh back in June. The Galileo filly comes from an excellent family, offspring include Minding, Empress Josephine and Kissed By Angels. A step up in trip will see Tuesday break her maiden and hopefully go onto better things. A few that need to step up after disappointing: 

8: UMAX trained by David Loughnane. 

9: THAKRAH trained by Robert Cowell. 

10: NINJA trained by Aidan O’Brien. Any others I will mention in my blog or on social media before they run. I did mention one the other day on Twitter. I had Stormy Ocean as a 3yo to follow, even though I didn’t have a bet on the shorted priced favourite it was nice to see the Frankel colt win. 

Thanks for reading and stay safe.

Tuesday, 11 January 2022

Insightful Horse Trainer Analysis 2021 (Richard Fahey)

This time of year there may be a lack of two-year-old horse racing but that doesn't mean I put my feet up and whistle in the wind.

Out of season, I start my mammoth horse trainer analysis.

I do all this manually, which may seem a laborious way to work in these days of data retrieval and platforms which do all the calculating in a few clicks of the mouse, rather than pay for a monthly subscription. I would rather update the info and assess it from my own perspective as it helps build a better picture. 

It's a working knowledge: looking at horses rather than data alone.  

I wouldn't say it is a labour of love but more a task to complete. With each trainer reviewed I have a better understanding of how they work. It is simply a way of finding answers to questions. Without this knowledge you are searching for the unknown and that's similar to looking into the distance without a reference point. It's much quicker to find an answer to a question and appreciate what it is saying. Each to their own. It might seem too much like hard work. However, if I asked you to give me a brief understanding of let's say Richard Fahey's two-year-olds for last season, would you be able to detail anything of real note? You may rush to the Racing Post and look at his statistics there and feel you know everything you need to know. Truthfully, you know something but it's the same info which everyone can assess which doesn't help separate you from the crowd. 

My assessment of each and every trainer details information that is freely available, with a bit of work, but in all honesty, is probably understood by less than 1% of all punters. They don't know the information because they either haven't thought about finding the answers or the thought of the work is off-putting. 

It's surprising how many trainers are out there vying for trade. All hoping for the next wonder horse to come their way. 

From the one-man band to the colossus of the leading trainers. 

In fact, there are several hundred horse trainers of two-year-olds. Most lucky to train one winner, even a lowly nursery, but they all have hopes and dreams. It's what keeps them going on cold, winter mornings. 

I completed my stats for Richard Fahey's two-year-olds. The study run from the start of the 2021 Flat Turf season until its conclusion in early November. 

Fahey is a very capable trainer of juveniles. To be fair, last year wasn't one of his best although Perfect Power didn't let the side down with his Group 1 successes and total earnings of £385,943. 

However, from the 72 two-year-old debutantes just four tasted success of their racecourse bow. And even more surprising that just six two-year-olds won on their second start, the biggest odds being 4/1. 

This information details the difference between knowing the facts and simply saying: ''I think Richard Fahey had a decent year!''

When you consider from 72 two-year-olds he had just 10 winners for both first and second starts, it just shows how difficult it is even for the most successful stables to win a race. 

In truth, this is just the tip of the iceberg of information you can glean from any horse trainer. Never forget the strength of data and what it tells you. It helps predict the future. A couple of hours work can help you appreciate the strength and weakness of stables. This tells you where the winners start and the losers end. True, data can only tell you so much. It simply helps you look in the right direction. Any horse can defy the odds. That's why 100/1 shots sometimes win. 

Wouldn't you rather bet with understanding or is finding answers to questions too much like hard work?

By all accounts, it's time well spent. 

Author: Jason Coote

Friday, 7 January 2022

Independent Bloodstock Agent Armando Duarte & MM Stables Racing Manager Talks Horses 2022

Hi Craig there is a few words like you asked. 

2021 was a good year on the track for MMSTABLES, with ALENQUER winning at sandown derby trial G3 , then winning at royal ascot G2 then a gallant 2nd in G1 Judmonte International behind the highest rated racehorse in the world. 
Also we had a 2 year old I bought at the breeze ups for quite a bit of money named Maglev rated 102 before we sold him well at the horses in training October sales in Newmarket to America, and he since finished a great 2nd in a stakes race on his first start for his new connections and we wish them the best of luck with him.
Last year sales once again hard to buy but we manage to buy 2 yearlings even with a huge budget I had I only bought those 2. I could bought a lot more for the sake of it but I want to look after my clients and spend their money like was my own. Not a bad statistic having 2 horses in training and both being rated above 100 and stakes horses. 

At the sales last year, I bought a Fast Company colt at Doncaster premier sales for £80.000 and a Saxon warrior colt for £120.000 at Book 1 Tattersalls in Newmarket. 

I really like the Fast Company colt at the moment, he is doing everything very well and easy. Great mover and great head too. Hopefully he can make Royal Ascot. 

The Saxon Warrior first season runners but I like him too , easy mover but he will more backend season and 3 year old campaign in mind but he is doing everything we ask him. 

Both will go to William Haggas

We will keep you updated with the names of these two horses. 

Regarding plans for ALENQUER we haven’t made any plans for him, he's cantering steady at the moment. We hope he got stronger through the winter and improved too. He is already a good horse but if he could improve 2 lengths from 3 to 4 he could be very competitive at the highest level. There is some valuable races abroad so we have that in mind but also we would like him to win a G1 in UK then hopefully make him a stallion. 

Great times ahead . 

Regards, 
Armando

Unraced Three-year-olds To Follow 2022 (Part 2)

1: SAMUEL PEPYS is by Galileo and out of Tiggy Wiggy, trained by Aidan O’Brien. I always remember dam Tiggy Wiggy as being an absolute speed machine who made all and just bombed out the stalls, add Galileo to the mix and we could have a nice type here. Samuel Pepys is a full-brother to a couple of nice O’Brien horses, Southern Cape and Year Of The Tiger. 

2: KING OF TIME is by Kingman and out of Lombatina, trained by Charlie Appleby. The boys in blue could have a nice one here. Dam Lombatina only raced twice, winning first time out. Her offspring include Agrotera for Ed Walker who ran to a decent level winning a Listed race back in 2019, hopefully this Kingman colt can put in a few decent performances this season. 

3: PEROTAN is by Churchill and out of Tanaghum, trained by Aidan O’Brien. Dam Tanaghum has been busy over the years and produced a few nice types, trained by John Dunlop Tanaghum ran to a decent level herself winning a Listed race. One offspring to note is Matterhorn who was a class horse for Mark Johnston. Perotan could be a name to look out for. 

4: DAIQUIRI DREAM is by Dubawi and out of Cocktail Queen, trained by Ralph Beckett and owned by familiar owner Mr J. C. Smith. Dam Cocktail Queen was a decent type back in her day for David Elsworth and produced a nice type trained now by William Haggas called Tom Collins who has performed with credit. Ralph gave Daiquiri a decent entry last season so lets hope he was right. 

5: GALLERIA BORGHESE is by Caravaggio and out of On Ice, trained by Aidan O’Brien. Not much information here but well-thought of by Aidan so that will do for me. 

6: GRACELAND'S GIRL is by Iffraaj and out of Stella Point, trained by Tim Easterby and owned by The Wolf Pack 2 and Partner. Long shot this one. A full-sister to Storting who is a decent sort for Mick Channon. 

7: INSTRUMENTAL is by No Nay Never and out of Strut, trained by Aidan O’Brien and owned by Derrick Smith. I have a few Irish 3yos in the list so I will just throw them in. Dam Strut was a nice type for Roger Charlton and he certainly loves this dam, training four of her offspring including Mince who was a class act back in her day. Plenty of speed in Instrumentals pedigree and another to look out for this season. 

8: IVY LEAGUE is by Galileo and out of Timbuktu, another trained by the all conquering Aidan O’Brien. Dam Timbuktu was average to say the least but has produced one nice offspring named Ontario who came third in a Listed race last year, disappointed after that so will be wary with this Galileo colt. 

9: ZERO CARBON is by Acclamation and out of Clotilde, trained by Richard Hughes. Another one that you may not find in other 3yos to follow this season but it's nice to be different. It took a while for dam Clotilde to come into her own but had a decent season as a 4yo winning a few races over a mile. I will be keeping that in mind when this bay colt makes his debut. 

10: PEARL BORDER is by Ribchester and out of Firth Of Lorne, trained by Charlie Appleby. Pearl Border comes from a class family being a half-sister to Master Of The Seas and Latharnach both trained by Charlie. Another exciting Godolphin 3yo to look out for. 

Times getting on I will note below a few more I will be keeping an eye out for. 

11: CHERUB trained by Aidan O’Brien. 
12: COMET LINE trained by Joseph O’Brien. 
13: COMPERE trained by Dermot Weld. 
14: ELMAFTUN trained by Kevin Prendergast. 
15. SONG OF WAR trained by Aidan O’Brien 

Thanks for reading and look out for my 3yos to follow coming soon.

Thursday, 6 January 2022

Unraced Three-year-olds To Follow (2022)

First of all I hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas and New Year. Personally it's been quiet and that is just how I like it, spending time with the family, drinking beer and trying to sort my trackers out. In total I have over one hundred and sixty three-year-olds to follow for this season which is a ridiculous amount, obviously I will narrow them down. Let’s take a quick look back at some of the highlights of last years three-year-olds to follow: 

EMPRESS JOSEPHINE was one of my unraced 3yos to follow and didn’t disappoint when winning first time out way back in March for Aidan O’Brien and then running at a decent level in pattern races for the the rest of the season. I would love to say I backed her for the 1000 Guineas but I never and the rest is history as the Galileo filly won by a short head at 16/1. Total earnings: £268,841

THIRD REALM went in the notebook as a 2yo with after a nice debut back in 2020. The Roger Varian colt got off the mark on his reappearance then went onto win the Listed Derby Trial at Lingfield at 14/1. Third Realm ran a great race in the Derby finishing fifth and another who ran to a decent level the rest of the season. Total earnings:£98,943

GEORGE PEABODY was a nice winner for the George Scott team when winning first time up as a 3yo last March at 11/1. It was nice to see him follow up with another win before finishing down the field in a nice race at Ascot. Total earnings:£5,724

SNOW LANTERN was in everybody's 3yos to follow and the Frankel filly didn’t disappoint when winning her maiden and going on to run some brilliant races last season in all the top races. I was pleased to see her win the Group one Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket when quickening up nicely to beat Mother Earth under a brilliant ride by Sean Levey. Hopefully Snow Lantern can bounce back as a 4yo after a lacklustre run in her final race of the season. Total Earnings:£356,236

Time to look at this season's 3yos to follow, I will start off with a few unraced 3yos who will hopefully make their mark in some of the top races. As always, the first time out you just never know so personally I will be taking a watching brief. 

1: EXPRESS WAY is by Dark Angel and out of Alluring Park, trained by Paddy Twomey. Dam Alluring Park has produced some great offspring, five out of the eight are all rated above 100 so the signs are good for the Dark Angel filly. Express Way is a half-sister to a few nice types including Aidan O'Brien's Was who won the Oaks in 2012. Well regarded by Paddy so hopefully Express can get a win on the board this season. 

2: FIORELLINA is by Galileo and out of Sapphire, trained by Dermot Weld who has had success with dam Sapphire before. Dam Sapphire was top class herself for Dermot winning plenty of nice races in a decent career including finishing her career in style winning the Group 2 Champion Fillies and Mares Stakes race at Ascot in 2012, offspring include full-sister Federica Sophia who ran some decent races for Dermot. 

3: WHISPERING ROMANCE is by Kingman out of Sante, trained by Charlie Appleby. Dam Sante wasn’t anything special winning once in her career but Appleby does rate this filly so I'm pretty sure she will get a win this season. 

4: NEWFOUNDLAND is by Deep Impact out of Best In The World, trained by Aidan O’Brien. Wow a full-brother to the brilliant Snowfall and one I will be really looking forward to seeing on the racetrack, I Imagine a few of these will be short prices but sometimes it's not all about betting for me. Interestingly Snowfall didn’t come into her own until tackling longer trips as a 3yo so I will be keeping that in mind. Another one is well regarded by the trainer. 

5: TASHKENT is by Acclamation out of Colour Blue, trained by Richard Hannon. Dam Colour Blue ran to a decent level in her three year career, her other offspring is the Simon and Ed Crisford trained Melancholy who came third on her debut at Lingfield in November and looks sure to improve. Tashkent is another who I will be looking out for this season. I have plenty more 3-year-olds to follow and will write another post soon. Hopefully these posts will keep a few people from going mad while the National Hunt season is in full swing. Thanks for reading and stay safe.

Monday, 3 January 2022

Revisiting the 2021 Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (30th November)

Let's go back to the beginning. 

Revisiting the 2021 Brocklesby Stakes. The first race of the turf season, for two-year-olds colts and fillies. 

This race has seen some exceptional winners over the years including Hearts Of Fire, Mind Games, The Last Lion. It's a very special race for me as it is like the first piece of the jigsaw puzzle. To be fair, the Brocklesby has had its highs and lows. Many runnings have come and gone without any start turn. However, when the horses are lined up I'm always hopeful there will be a sparkling winner or juveniles which progress to show they are exceptions to the rule. 

The 2021 Brocklesby Stakes didn't disappoint. 

That made my year. 


Source: Racing Post

What a brilliant winner we had in Eve Johnson-Houghton's Chipotle. A decisive winner taking the Brocklesby in style and so much more. 

Chipotle form: 

Total earnings: £139,714 

Vintage Clarets Form: 

Total earnings: £26,868 

Other winners include:

Total earnings: £14,198

Total earnings: £7,488

Total earnings: £14,381

Source: Racing Post 

Tuesday, 21 December 2021

4:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (21st December)

Quite an intriguing stakes race. 

Not the type of race to go crazy over, although from a speed angle I'm very interested in seeing how Bryan Smart's Instinction goes. This daughter of Brazen Beau is very fast if not a little headstrong. However, she fairly flew home last time out over course and distance. A double penalty isn't easy to shrug off. Gianluca Sanna takes off a handy 7lb (as he did last time) and will be looking forward to this return. Instinction has been consistent in her five races to date and ran well when competing at Listed class at York in the Marygate Stakes. She looks the type to live on her nerves but could well cruise along at the front and it will be a matter of whether she stops rather than the others catch her. The type of horse to win well or finish unplaced. I am excited to see a bold show and hope Crossfields Racing have another winner. 

Kaboo is a short price. This son of More Than Ready has always been held in high regard at Spigot Lodge, and I'm sure on the gallops one of the better two-year-olds for Karl Burke, racing in the familiar silks of Nick Bradley Racing 49 & Mrs Burke. Very few juveniles make their debut at Listed class, and he showed up well. However, this strong colt, was a little too keen to do himself justice when contesting pattern class at Sandown and Goodwood. Then he had a massive drop in class and won nicely at Wolverhampton. He's run over five furlongs on all four starts to date. Kaboo is one of those horses who could flourish and go back into a higher grade or one who slightly struggles with exuberance (rather than temperament). I think connections would have been at pains to get him to settle and be more professional since his last victory. To be fair, I think today will be a good measure of future goals. I must admit, I wouldn't be betting at odds of 5/4. This race sets a pretty stiff task and he wouldn't want to be keen as it will be a strength to finish with vigour if Instinction leads (as I'm sure she will) and folds (only time will tell).

Alicia Choice is a very well bred daughter of Dark Angel out of Queen Kindly who won at Group 2 and an exceptional talent. She has the advantage of less weight, but the disadvantage of inexperience, which makes life difficult over this flying five furlongs. Kevin Ryan is no stranger to debut winners and he may well fancy the chances of this March foal. However, she will need to have plenty of ability and more importantly professionalism. A slow start could be a disaster, unless the speedsters really blow a gasket. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at relatively short odds (9/2). 

Sassy Rascal is a small filly who has won and shown a fair level of ability. She has been known to get a slow start which isn't a positive against this type of field. She is very small and I just think others make more appeal. 

Similarly, Lucy Lulu has proven herself to be a gutsy filly who made a winning debut and consistent even in defeat. She was put in her place behind Instinction last time when beaten by six lengths. She looks the type to hit the frame but may struggle to win. 

I think Top Notch Tommy with be outpaced. 

Richard Fahey fields two horses from his racing club. He is a handler who can win at big odds on debut so cannot be written off. However, Olivia's Choice and Hello Power would need to be fighting fit and talents to win on debut. 

Waverley Star and Mad Artymaise are best watched. 

Conclusion: A trappy looking race. Instinction will make this something of a spectacle, especially if she is allowed to shoot clear of the field. She has much more pace than these and it is a matter of whether she can defy the double penalty. The classic easy winner or disappointment. If you bet each-way you are looking for trouble. I hope she goes well and hangs on for a win. Kaboo could be a real powerhouse if connections have him at best. That's something of an unknown and reason why I wouldn't bet at short odds. If he's keen it could be a difficult race to win. If these two talents disappoint, then we may have a bit of a surprise winner. I'd have to take a watching brief but will be cheering home Instinction, especially if she holds a six-length advantage at halfway. 

Good luck to all. 

Author: Jason Coote

Sunday, 12 December 2021

Winners, Winners,Winners for Trainer Quotes 2021

It’s been another great flat season and I for one won’t be resting on my laurels after another exciting season for craigsbettingblog. I will be hoping I can put more effort in next season and make it even better. I always love getting in touch with trainers and finding out about their new crop of 2-year-olds for the season ahead. Taking a look back at what horses they mentioned before they even set foot on the race course is always interesting. 

Eve Johnson-Houghton kindly forwarded information about her 2021 crop as early as February and one stand out horse was the Havana Gold colt CHIPOTLE who gave owners the Woodway 20 an unbelievable season winning £139.000 in prize money. As mentioned in one of my recent posts the Brocklesby is normally a good indicator that the horse has some level of ability and it proved the case for Chipotle who made light work of the other eight runners and went on to win the Windsor Castle and finished the season in style winning the Listed William Hill Trophy at Redcar. NUVOLARI, another mentioned by Eve as one for the future, won first timeout at Epsom in September and could be worth following as a 3-year-old.

New trainer Edward Bethell, another who forward some invaluable information on his first crop of 2-year olds. Edward mentioned that FEARBY was an early straightforward type and he wasn’t wrong when an eye-catching fourth on debut in May before going on to win the Dragon Stakes and finishing an excellent second in the Molecomb Group 3 Stakes Goodwood bringing in a total of £93.000 in prize money. Young Winston, Reel Rosie and Exminister, another three who got wins on the board in what was an excellent first season for Edward.

Charlie Fellowes chipped in with ATRIUM who grabbed a couple of wins who Charlie described as a strong, nice well made colt. 

George Scott, a trainer who always has time for the blog, gave MISTRIX as a horse to follow and the Vadamos filly won a nice class 3 Stakes race at York in September and might have more to come. 

Karl Burke, one of my favourite 2-year-old trainers never disappoints and had good things to say about the Dandy Man gelding KORKER and described him as a sharp 2-year-old who moves very well. Korker finished second on debut then added three wins in a great season for owners Fine Claret and More Turf Racing. GIFTED GOLD another winner for Karl who won first timeout in September. 

Marco Botti only mentioned a few but ODISSEO found his way the second part of the season. The £26.000 Ulysses colt took time to warm up and find his grade before winning two on the bounce and running his best race when stepping up a level last timeout. 

James Tate always gives a winner or two with his horses to follow and this season it was the same again as HIGH VELOCITY followed his promising debut at Yarmouth with a cosy win at Chelmsford last timeout and definitely has more to come. EL HADEEYAH took a few attempts to break her duck but got off the mark at Lingfield in July. 

AMAZONIAN DREAM had a great season for Rod Millman who finished second on his debut way back in April then went on to run with credit in a few tough races before finishing the season instyle winning back to back races at Newbury and Sandown and looks like a nice horse for the future. 

I managed to get a few owners on board this season and I love the way owners Quantum Leap don’t rush horses. It was nice to see the Ralph Beckett trained SPEYCASTER win on his third start after being given a nice write-up here back in February by Niall O'Connor and another to look out for next season. 

It was to get Qatar racing on board and they came up trumps with SUNSTRIKE who won second timeout for John Gosden then went on to run at group level and recent Hugo Palmer winner CUBAN BEAT another second timeout winner who looks a nice type going forward. 

The 2022 season is still a good few months away but next year I will be working harder to bring the best 2-year-old information to my readers. 

I would like to thank all my readers for making craigsbettingblog the place to go to for top 2-year-old information, without you my motivation would soon go.

Saturday, 4 December 2021

4:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (4th December)

A quick post. 

Like most of these races, the majority of two-year-olds are priced with little chance of winning. The chance of most horses winning when priced 25/1+ is slim. In general, debutantes have an equal chance of winning at big odds as those with race experience. However, it is surprising how this success varies markedly from trainer to trainer. In that I mean, certain horse trainers simply do not win when priced at big odds. You may think the smaller trainers have more opportunity to slip past the bookmakers but it is very individual and the only real understanding is by observing the data from one trainer to another. 

This is a lengthy introduction to detail that this is likely to be a four-horse race. 

The four favourites. 

Last Ammo is a rare candidate for Charlie Appleby being in the ownership of Sultan Ali, rather than in the Godolphin silks. To be honest, I'm not sure what connection he may be to Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum. This son of Teofilo wasn't too fancied on debut when priced 10/1, finishing fourth at Kempton racing over 1m. This colt was second string that day but ran well and this step up to 1m 1 1/2f should see a bold show. From a statistical point of view, this chestnut colt has very good claims, although probably no better than price to chance.  

Charlie Appleby has Wild Crusade making his debut. This son of Dubawi is out of a Listed winner and she has been the mare to a couple of exceptional talents in Yabir and Wild Illusion, both won over a million. This colt could hold claims, especially if priced 11/4 and less sp. Few win when priced over 8/1+. 

Yummylicious has raced twice for John & Thady Gosden although has a wide draw, which may not be a problem over this trip but never ideal on a turning track. In addition, is one of three fillies against a field of colts. Even with a sex allowance, it is always a slight negative for a filly to race against bigger, stronger foe. This daughter of Dubawi steps up in distance after a debut of 7f and a bigger second start when stepping up to 1m 1/2f. A fair hope although the draw and a filly against the colts is a negative. 

John Gosden fields two debutantes in the Cheveley Park Stud owned Homeric and Mariinsky in the Godolphin silks. He is a trainer who can win with debutantes at bigger odds.

Simon Crisford's Benzine can go well on debut at a price although they are more likely to be placed than win.   

Other horses to consider are Rendition & Maytree Respite

Summary: An interesting race. Last Ammo deserves respect but no price, although the stats suggests a leading chance. Wild Crusade may have claims, especially if strongly backed. Yummylicious has hopes although a filly against the colts is a concern for me. John Gosden is no stranger to a second or third string winning so Homeric and Mariinsky hold some interest. Could an outsider win? Rendition & Maytree Respite are worth a closer look. As is Benzine who has each way claims. Last Ammo has the best chance but no price and I wouldn't be betting. 

A watching brief. 

Note: At the time of writing Last Ammo was 1/1. At biggest, touched 4/1 on the exchanges. The reason why trying to write a post is so difficult considering this was post late in the day, which just proves the point.

Result: 


Source: Racing Post

Thursday, 25 November 2021

Soft Going: Should I Bet or Not?

Each to their own.

I don't know about you, but I always feel a touch uneasy about betting on horses on testing ground. 

Perhaps a touch of soft in good ground isn't too much of a problem but when it's soft or heavy what do you think?

Betting on the two-year-olds, you can be at the mercy of the ground because even if your horse has breeding to cope it doesn't mean that will be the case. 

I noticed a couple of two-year-old horse races at Newmarket and the field was strung out like it was a two-mile chase. 

Winners pulling clear by five or six lengths, while those at the back of the field were in a different county. 

I had a distinctly uneasy feeling and it wasn't just from the sodden ground under my size nines.

Perhaps you don't think about the ground or just chance your luck the horse you backed will be favoured rather than literally stuck in the mud. 

With limited form to know for sure whether your horse will be at home on testing ground you have to take a double gambler. Not only does it have enough ability to win but it will enjoy the ground. Or, at least, it won't be falling out the back of the telly. 

So what do we do?

I must admit, I am very careful. It is one of those things that makes you feel you can only lose. You don't bet and the horse wins. You do bet, and it comes home last eating a potato it found in the mud. 

Sometime, if you get a price, you just have to go with the flow and hope it is your lucky day. 

It doesn't inspire confidence. 

What do you think?

Guest post: Jason Coote 

Sunday, 14 November 2021

Trainers Who Have Impressed this 2021 Turf Season - Kevin Philippart de Foy

It's only when you look at old horse racing annuals you realise how many trainers come and go. 

Very few exceed their wildest ambitions. So often those early days of excitement turn to dust. 

I always remember a few years back one trainer saying they had the investment for a couple of years. Basically, if they didn't hit the ground running it would be a short-lived experience. The said trainer had a very good first season, sadly the next was pretty much winless and the hammer came down on all those hopes and ambitions. 

It's the world we live. 

However, I can't see that happening to rookie trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy.

What a first season.

That's why it's always good to give those new trainers some promotion and appreciate their success. 

Two-year-old horse racing is the natural starting place for many rookie trainers. Think back to Archie Watson showing the best how it was done. 

I guess we all have our favourites. 

For me, one trainer made an impressive start to training: 

Kevin Philippart de Foy

The latest edition to Newmarket: Machell Place Stables, Old Station Road. 

It's hardly surprising this young trainer has a touch of class considering his mother was a jockey and trainer in France. To gain further experience, he has worked with John Oxx, Criquette Head & Christopher Clement. Geographically, that's Ireland, France and the United States. 

However, reputation means little if it isn't backed up. In the world of horse racing, that currency is measured in winners. 

To be fair, most of the time, I don't hear about the new kids on the blog until I see them pop up on the race card. 

20th April, Great Yarmouth

A rather inauspicious start to proceedings, Pokhara. 

''Who is this Philippart de Foy?''

However, it was only at matter of time before the winners started to flow. 

We saw 18 two-year-olds this Flat turf season. 

They made their debuts, Chronologically: 

Pokhara 

Smooth Talking

Rock Melody 

Giawont

Mehmentum 

Baileysgutfeeling 

New Pursuit 

Unexpected Arrival 

Torvi 

Scot's Grace 

Pearl Glory 

Rose Burton 

Chiqueador 

Kerensa 

Brown Mouse 

Without Delay 

Edward Jenner 

Nicholas George 

Debut winners highlighted in yellow. 

Read more...



Review: As I said, I really didn't pay much attention to Kevin Philippart de Foy until Rock Melody hit the ground running. An impressive victory at Redcar, winning by three-and-three-quarter lengths. An easy 16/1 poke. 



July saw New Pursuit make a superb effort at Epsom, winning by over two-and-a-half lengths at odds of 11/2.    

Later that month, two fillies made their mark showing Philippart de Foy was no one-trick pony. 



Scot's Grace, a daughter of Mehmas, strode clear of the field at Kempton over 6f.  An inspired breeze-up purchase by Universal Stud at £15,000, later in the ownership of Bernard Havern. She would dip her toe into pattern class on the next two starts when a luckless fifth in the Sirenia Stakes (Group 3), and sixth in the Firth of Clyde Fillies' Stakes (Group 3). Both defeats no more than four-lengths behind. 


Pearl Glory, a daughter of Cotai Glory out of the dam Oatmeal, another excellent purchase at £12,000 (breeze-up) by Philippart de Foy.  A very good, battling, victory when beating another classy type in Outside World, trained by Mark Johnston. A similarly gutsy display when beating The Organiser, by a head, under a penalty. Sold by The Three Wise Men Syndicate to Team Valor Llc & Gary Barber. A return to Salisbury saw a strong performance when runner-up to Romantic Times in the Dick Poole Fillies' (Group 3), losing by a length. 

Summary: Kevin Philippart de Foy has been a surprise package and went from a trainer most punters knew little about to someone who is respected with his juveniles, a man who can win on debut, which is no easy feat. These four two-year-olds proved the point with victories and gallant efforts at pattern class, if not a touch unlucky not to have achieved such ambitions. I for one will be looking at Philippart de Foy in a different light this new season. In fact, he has achieved success most established trainers could only dream. 

Well done to the team. 

Visit Kevin Philippart de Foy's Website

Graphics: Racing Post 

Credit: Photo Kevin Philippart de Foy 

Author: Jason Coote 

Sunday, 7 November 2021

2yo Unraced Hidden Gems for the Future

As the 2-year-old season draws ever closer to the end I still have a few unraced gems who could be potentially nice types for the backend of the season or with the winter behind them could be worth keeping and eye out for next season. I will mention a few in no particular order.

1: Ralph Beckett has had a few nice 2-year-olds this season including Prosperous Voyage, Angel Bleu and not forgetting Hello You now trained by David Loughnane who is owned by Amo Racing. Ralph Beckett and owners Amo Racing still have a Kodiac colt called MALEX who has yet to set foot on the racecourse but is well-regarded at Kimpton Down Stables. Dam Trois Lunes was a nice type for trainer Francois Rohaut winning a Group 3 at Longchamp back in 2012. 

2: Another trained by Ralph Beckett is DAIQUIRI DREAM and runs in the familiar colours of owner Mr J.C.Smith, I’m pretty certain this Dubawi filly has ability and hopefully will set foot on the racecourse soon. Dam Cocktail Queen was owned by Smith and another who won group races as a 3-year-old in France. Another well-regarded at Kimpton Down Stables. 

3: Been on the radar for a while this one, in fact DENIM SHORTS had an early entry for the Brocklesby way back in March but didn’t run. Trainer George Boughey has been in fine form this season banging in plenty of winners and I’m sure this Ontoawinner Galileo Gold filly was a nice filly who was showing some early speed for George and the team. Not too sure what’s happened to the 11,000 gns purchase so a word of caution when we see her on the track. 

4: Richard Hughes and owners Clarke and Waters have had a few winners in the past including Glendevon, Lady Madison, two I can think of off the top of my head. They have another potentially nice type in the name of ZERO CARBON who is another one I will be keeping an eye out for. Dam Clotilde seemed to improve with age so hopefully with the winter behind the Acclamation colt we will see a nice sort for Richard Hughes. 

5: It wouldn’t be a list without Charlie Appleby 2-year-olds and the next one that could be nice is the Kingman colt KING OF TIME who is a half-brother to the Ed Walker trained Agrotera who won a few nice races including the Snowdrop Listed race back in 2019 at Kempton. 

6: Next Charlie Appleby 2-year-old to look out for is the Ribchester filly PEARL BORDER who is well-thought of by the boys in Blue. Dam Firth Of Lorne has certainly been busy and produced a couple of nice types for Charlie already including Master Of The Seas who won his first two races as a 2-year-old and withdrawn in the Breeders Cup Mile on Saturday. Pearl Border is a half-sister to Latharnach who also ran to a decent level for Appleby. Nice pedigree this one and one I’m keen on seeing when making her racecourse debut. 

7: Next one for Charlie Appleby has an early entry for Kempton on Wednesday. MAKKARI I imagine will be all the rage for this so it could be time to just watch and see if the hype is right. Dam Sobetsu was a high class filly for Charlie winning a couple of group races in Deauville back in 2017. Makkari has been giving the right signals at home but the Galileo filly needs to produce it on the track to show how good she is. 

8: PURE DIGNITY could be special for the Roger Varian team and another who can’t wait to see it hit the racecourse. A half-sister to multiple group winner Sottsass who has gone from strength to strength and won the L’arc De Triomphe in October. I really hope Pure Dignity is an exciting prospect for the Varian team. 

Time is getting on so I will add a few more below with no write-ups. 

PRINCESS OLLY, Richard Hannon and Amo Racing. 

TASHKENT, Richard Hannon and Al Shaqab Racing. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Monday, 1 November 2021

Do Two-Year-Old (2yo) Debutantes win at Odds-On?

''Without objective testing theories are only guesses however good.'' 

Those words stuck in my brain. 

They were considered years ago when I studied Psychology for an Hons Degree BSc. In fact, I uttered those words in a lesson at Anglia Polytechnic University. 

Now Anglia Cambridge Ruskin University. 

We're talking East Anglia. The driest and flattest part of the United Kingdom. 

Home.  

My adventure to university was short lived - just over two weeks. After deferring for a year,  time moved too fast. I turned up to academia with little enthusiasm. 

I pretty much decided it was time to leave before I arrived. A halfhearted conversation with a laid back gentleman couldn't convince me to stay. To be honest, I don't think it was a loss on either side. 

It felt good to escape. 

Far from being a disappointment to myself (although perhaps to others) I new exactly what I would do...

I enrolled with The Open University. 

My studying started when I picked up the books and stopped when I put them down. Much more efficient. I saw a lecturer on one solitary day. I went as it was mandatory. It wasn't a bad day.

However, I decided to do it myself. A whole degree without any real interaction beyond the odd email, tutor-marked assignments and annual exam.  

Why? 

Because I wanted to prove that I didn't need anyone to get a degree. 

After failing miserably at school, qualifications not worth the paper they were written and teachers assessing my academic potential as zero I was pleased, if not proud, to stick two fingers up to those who I left behind. To be fair, I should have been looking back at my old self with similar contempt. 

A good few years later I had done it. 

That's a long introduction to learn something about two-year-old horse racing. To be fair, it may seem off topic. 

Everything is related in ways. 

What does a table and tiger have in common? 

They both have four legs.  

My deviation to education is that so few gamblers educate themselves.

This is a mistake. 

I applaud your behaviour because it keeps me ahead of the game. 

Every Flat turf season, I research lots of information. At times it seems a chore. At the end of each sitting, the data reveals something which makes me appreciate why I took the time to explore. 

A FEW GEMS OF WISDOM.

If I told you many basic facts about two-year-old horse racing you would be surprised. I have a lot of information that would amaze you. Here's the interesting point, everything I know, you could know too. In fact, you could know more...

It's waiting to be found. 

Scratch the surface, ask the right questions, do your homework, find the answers. 

For instance, how many two-year-olds start odds on for their debut and win?

Think of a number.

Unless you know the facts it's pointless imagining. 

What would that little piece of data tell you? 

Would it affect how you think or how you bet?

Would it make a difference to your profit or loss?

You never realised that one question could lead to so many questions and their respective answers.

Knowledge is power. 

You see, I know the exact number. In truth, whether it is few or many makes little difference. 

But it should make a difference to you. It should hold significance because it is one of a thousand things most gamblers don't know. 

You really should be concerned. 

Separate yourself from the crowd. Think. 

Do Two-Year-Old Debutantes win at Odds-On? 

Now, there's a question. 

Author: Jason Coote

Photo: Pixabay free for commercial use and no attribution but given