Saturday, 19 June 2021

Saturday 2yo Racing Tips (19th June)

Another late post. 

1:20 Redcar - 

Not that much value going on with the favourites but both respected. Mahogani looks straightforward and ran well last time out at Chepstow. Whether he can defy the penalty is open to debate. I wouldn't knock Sir Mark Prescott's charge but Flippin Eck, trained by Tim Easterby, may be a fair challenger. The form of his Thirsk run is working out well. Something of a springer in the market that day, it may be telling connections made his debut at Class 2. I really can't see much value with these two unless one drifts to the extreme. 

Benzema is a good-looking colt who may appreciate this step up in distance but a horse that needs to improve. 

That's the question. 

Watching brief. 

Source: Racing Post Full Result

1:40 Newmarket - 

This looks a competitive heat. The Yarmouth duo are at the head of the market. I can see Find and Zechariah running big races. Both look progressive types and given very easy introductions as if they would be primed for their second start. To be fair they ran similar races. Find looked to travel well and tired in the closing stages. His backers, today, will be hoping that was due to a lack of fitness. Martyn Meade's Zechariah ran on well at the seaside track and perhaps, in ways, ran a better race in that he was running on at the line. 

Lusail has the burden of a win penalty and that may be enough to slow him down. However, he has won and contested a class race at Pontefract and was far from disgraced. A drifter in the market, there may be some value at each-way odds. 

Desert Miracle is worth a mention as Darryll Holland had earmarked this colt to run at Royal Ascot. A 100/1 shot with the bookies, perhaps this is a sign of a horse with little hope. On the other side of the coin, there may be a chance this two-year-old is backed and ready to roll. 

I like the two favourites and would probably be betting on Find if available at each-way odds. However, that is very unlikely to happen and I would respect the challenge of Martyn Meade's Zechariah. In addition, Lusail has proven he can win a race, while Noble Truth cost over a million euros. 

Desert Miracle may be worth a small each-way bet simply because I'd look a bit of a nutter if it went unbacked at huge odds and won. 

Source: Racing Post Full Result

Good luck.

Author: Jason Coote

Friday, 18 June 2021

Nick Bradley Racing Syndicate: Smooth Operator

Royal Ascot 2021. 

For most owners and trainers those winners are elusive. In ways, Nick Bradley Racing exemplify the story of successful racehorse ownership. 

We've seen a host of two-year-olds make their appearance this year for horse trainers many and varied. Each syndicate as excited as the next. It's going to be a good year. By Lord, we all need it to be a good one. 

The sound of galloping horses. A cheering crowd. Let me close my eyes for a moment and dream. 

Take a deep breath...

Exhale as a nation if not a united world.

I'm sure as Nick Bradley travels to the races he listens to that 1984 classic hit by Sade - Smooth Operator

The lyrics ''Diamond Life'' shine - emboldened - in my mind. 

Royal Ascot has been a flying success for Nick and the team. 

What a start to proceedings.  

Two-year-old horse racing is our bag and it's overflowing with success. Racing silks for everyone topped with a star. What more do we need to say. Leading the way in racehorse ownership and investment. 

The latter word isn't synonymous with many chancing their luck within this racing game. 

Without question, there will be success. 

Eldrickjones nearly hit the jackpot when runner up in the Coventry Stakes Group 2 at odds of 66/1, in the capable hands of trainer Roger Fell, ridden by Daniel Tudhope. 

Don't you wish you had purchased a share in this son of Cotai Glory out of a winning mare? An inspired breeze-up purchase from Goffs for the paltry sum of £26,000. Some people wait a lifetime for a gifted horse, these lucky souls almost had a Coventry winner in under two months. 


Source Racing Post: Full result

I'm sure the blood was pumping a little faster and the drink going down the hatch like lubrication of a well-oil machine.

The Queen Mary Stakes Group 2 beckoned. Mas Poder, who made her debut in no less than the Marygated Stakes (listed race) over 5f at York for trainer Kevin Ryan, ridden by Kevin Stott, was ready to show even more power. This daughter of Mehmas finished fourth, an ''eyecatcher'' losing by two-lengths at odds of 22/1. 

A sweet bay filly, a £42,000 breeze-up purchase from Goffs purchased by Hillen & Ryan. 

Potential blue bloods at bargain basement prices.

Mas Poder didn't have her day at Royal Ascot, finishing a disappointing last in the Queen Mary Stakes. 

She will bounce back. 

Soon. 

Source Racing Post: Full Result

Wednesday 16th June. The sun was shining brightly in an Ascot sky. The pimms had extra sparkle. 

I couldn't believe what I was seeing! 

Nick Bradley must have been contemplating the Windsor Castle Stakes (listed race) with the zeal of my old gran, of Mexican descent, who loves to chew on a Chipotle pepper as she contemplates her next move when playing chess. 

What's this Mr. Bradley in a pincer movement with one of my favourite trainers Karl Burke. They stopped the clock, reminiscing over the moves of Bobby Fischer's Ruy Lopez opening like it was 1971. 

I can't, again, believe my eyes. 

There's me waiting for Kaboo to turn up at Carlisle on some heady evening and here he is starting at Royal Ascot. No wonder he is sired by More Than Ready. Not only this but he's been backed as if defeat is out of the question. 

You don't question King Midas about anything made of gold. 

Kaboo ran like a demon. I'm sure he only drifted left towards the finish because he saw my old gran throw a Chipotle pepper on the course in an attempt to trigger his turbo-charge only to see it quickly gobbled up by some beast trained by Eve Johnson Houghton. 

No wonder I love to write about the Brocklesby Stakes, waiting for the future to be unveiled. 

Kaboo finished a brilliant sixth, beaten just over three lengths. 

Not only that, Guilded, who ran a remarkable race when runner-up at Beverley's Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies' Stakes, was vying for the lead when tiring in the closing hundred yards for a creditable eighth place. 

Source Racing Post: Full Result 

Thursday 18th June.

Ladies' Day - The sky is expelling water, but Hellomydarlin.

What a day. 

Oscula, trained by George Boughey and ridden by Mark Crehan, had been in fantastic form after bumping into a horse named Sandrine on debut at Kempton. Two wins later, this daughter of Galileo Gold, out of a once-raced mare, took her chance in the Albany Stakes Group 3. This 4000 guinea yearling purchase was fancied to go well at odds of 10/1 and so she did. Making her own way up the near side rail she ran on in sterling fashion to finish third behind old adversary Sandrine who won in some style. 

Hellomydarlin, who had made a winning debut at Goodwood, was disappointing after losing her position in the early stages of the race. 

Source Racing Post: Full Result 

Even in these heavy conditions it would have been great to conclude Royal Ascot's Chesham Stakes (Listed race) with another Nick Bradley Racing superstar. 

However, something tells me one, two or three of these talented two-year-olds will be winning at Group class before the season ends. 

Excellent work by all.

For more information about horse racing ownership visit Nick Bradley Racing  

Author: Jason Coote

DC’s Dark Horses: Ten To Follow For The 2021 Flat Season

1. Broadhaven
… 3yo F ( Cable Bay x Shy Appeal ) 

Trainer, Jonathan Portman.

A cheap buy as a yearling at just 10,000gns , and a half sister to three winners. Best of three runs came on her final start of 2020 when keeping on inside the final furlong without threatening the principals, to be beaten a total of four lengths behind Russian Camilla. Starts the year on a mark of 61 and can be found a small race now that she is likely to step into handicap company. 

2. Brunnera …. 3yo F ( Dubawi x Romantica ) 

Trainer, Hugo Palmer. 

A beautifully bred filly from a top Juddmonte Farms distaff line. She didn’t live up to that pedigree in three starts as a juvenile, but has shown signs of some ability – enough to suggest that she can win in the right grade. That will hopefully come over in handicaps over middle distances. It will be interesting to see her on better ground as a three year old also, as I am not convinced that the soft surface on her two starts to date proved ideal. 

3. Camelot Tales … 3yo C ( Camelot x Temptress ) 

Trainer, Simon & Ed Crisford. 

Only saw a racecourse for the first time at the start of December, but showed enough when finishing fourth of ten behind Oz Legend at Newcastle over a mile to suggest that winning opportunities can be found. Camelot Tales should stay at least ten furlongs, and should benefit from a winter behind him. I will be disappointed if he doesn’t progress as he gains experience. 

4. John Leeper … 3yo C ( Frankel x Snow Fairy ) 

Trainer, Ed Dunlop. 

Fourth of ten in a Doncaster Maiden over seven furlongs, beaten a shade over three lengths behind Tawaareq on his only start last season. John Leeper is by the great Frankel, out of the 2010 Epsom Oaks and multiple Group winner Snow Fairy, so has much to live up to. It would be unfair and unrealistic to think that he will ever be remotely as good as either of his parents, but he should prove up to winning in Maiden / Novice company over a trip in the region of ten furlongs ( he may even stay a little further ) before hopefully moving on to something better. 

5. King Of Clubs … 3yo C ( Intello x Queen Arabella ) 

Trainer, Hughie Morrison. 

Went into my notebook as a potential improver with a few more races under his belt. Fifth on his only start last year over a mile, and filled the same position when beaten four and a half lengths by Tamborrada at Newcastle over a mile and a quarter in the first week of the new year. Promises to stay 1m 4f and should be placed to the best of his ability. King Of Clubs is the third foal of a daughter of Medicean, whose first two offspring have won four races between them to date. 

6. Moment Critique … 3yo F ( Bated Breath x Tarqua ) 

Trainer, Clive Cox. 

Looked in need of the experience, and a little ill at ease on the soft going at Salisbury on her debut when beating only two horses home in a field of thirteen, around fourteen and a half lengths behind the winner Champagne Piaff. That was over seven furlongs, and Moment Critique was dropped back a furlong for her only other start of the year some nineteen days later, and put up a better effort to finish sixth of eleven behind Popmaster at Kempton beaten less than four lengths. Clearly no world beater but will hopefully be placed to win a race or two over the course of the season. 

7. Nevile Chamberlain … 3yo C ( Shalaa x Black Rodded ) 

Trainer, Martyn Meade. 

A well beaten ninth of twelve over six furlongs at Wolverhampton In the third week of December on his only outing to date. He may well have finished a little closer but for being hampered when staying on with around a furlong to run, and eventually was beaten around ten and a half lengths behind the winner Water Of Leith. It looked a fairly ordinary contest, but Nevile Chamberlain, a half brother to the Richard Spencer trained Louis Treize could be capable of better – and up to shedding his maiden tag. He is also worth a try at slightly further, and like many of last season’s juveniles will benefit from a winter behind him. 

8. Poet’s King … 3yo G ( Paco Boy x Danega ) 

Trainer, Kevin Ryan. 

Looked in need of the experience when fourth of ten over seven furlongs at Chelmsford on his only start last season. It wasn’t a run without any promise, finishing a shade under six lengths behind the winner Inveigle. Poet’s King was gelded a few weeks later, and will have time to recover from the unkindest cut over the winter. I’d imagine that he will take in a Maiden or a Novice event on his return this year, and will stay at least a mile. He should be up to winning an ordinary handicap in the North in time. 

9. Santiki … 3yo F ( Nathaniel x Behkara ) 

Trainer, Michael Bell. 

Never competitive and well beaten, when eighth of twelve behind One Journey over a mile at Newbury on her only run of 2020. I’m fairly confident that can be safely ignored, and put down to inexperience and the difficulty to cope with testing conditions on her first outing. I’ll be disappointed if Santiki cannot put that effort well and truly behind her. She comes from a nice family of the Aga Khan’s band of broodmares, and is a half sister to the Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris winner of 2010 – namely Behkabad. Santiki will stay 1m 4f and should be found winning opportunities over the course of the season. 

10. Torrkee … 3yo C ( Myboycharlie x Fontaine Margot ) 

Trainer, Simon & Ed Crisford. 

A 50k euro purchase at the Arqana yearling sales of 2019, Torrkee looked clearly in need of the experience when third behind Potapova & Natural Value over seven furlongs at Chelmsford in the final week of November. Torrkee dwelt as the stalls opened but was soon in touch chasing the leaders, but was being asked to quicken before they turned for home. The winner quickened away smartly, while Torrkee was outpaced – but to his credit stayed battling for the place all the way to the line. Victory in Maiden company should prove a formality, before hopefully something better, and Torrkee should have no trouble staying at least a mile.

Author: Doug Campbell

Wednesday, 16 June 2021

Ed Dunlop's 2yos to Follow in 2021

Jack Morland, Assistant Trainer to Ed Dunlop, has kindly forwarded a list of their two-year-olds for the 2021 season.

Take a look at Ed's two-year-olds from the 2020 season.  

Taking a closer look at the best of last year's crop three horses caught the eye. 

Lenny's Spirit who raced three times and won at the odds of 22/1 on his second start at York. Loyal owner Paul Turner had another fair juvenile in Arthur's Realm

One horse who looks a potential star of the future is John Leeper

Named after John Leeper Dunlop, this son of Frankel is out of the exceptional mare Snow Fairy. You wouldn't find a better bred horse and he made a lovely introduction when finishing fourth at odds of 8/1. I expect this colt to follow in the same direction as Virgin Snow, who is similarly owner [Anamoine] and trained and now races off on OR of 100. 

Looking forward to this new crop of two-year-olds. Names will be updated as and when the information is available.

Unnamed: Camelot X Capriole 

This colt is by Guineas and Derby hero Camelot. He is a well put-together, scopey individual with a good shoulder and hind end matched by an athletic walk. He is the half-brother to Group 3 winner Arnold Laneand is from the family of the great Oh So Sharp. He looks an athletic individual and is progressing well. 

Unnamed: Churchill X Indigo 

Lady This strong, compact filly with a good hind end was purchased at Tattersalls Book 1. Churchill is a first season sire and was an exceptional racehorse himself, winning both the Gr.1 Dewhurst Stakes and the Gr.1 2,000 Guineas. She is the half-sister to the Listed winning Indie Angel who looks a very progressive type. She has a brilliant attitude and I am looking forward to training her. 

Unnamed: Camelot X Sterling Sound 

This Camelot colt out of Sterling Sound was purchased at Tattersalls Book 2. He is a racy looking horse for a Camelot and is very well-built and strong. Camelot has had another exceptional year at stud and I’m looking forward to seeing how he progresses. He has been doing everything that has been asked of him so far and looks a type for the middle of the season. 

Unnamed: Siyouni x Twitch 

This strong, well-built filly was purchased at Tattersalls Book. Her sire Siyouni has had a smashing year with Gr.1 Arc d’Triomphe winner Sottsass and Gr.1 Dewhurst Stakes winner St Mark’s Basilica. Out of the Listed winning mare Twitch, she looks an exciting prospect. 

Unnamed: The Gurkha X Saga Celebre 

This colt by French Guineas and Sussex Stakes winner The Gurkha was purchased at Tattersalls. Saga Celebre is a mare whose talented progeny I have been fortunate enough to train in the past, including the stakes performing Sagaciously. This colt is a rangy, good-looking horse with a great head and a super attitude - I am looking forward to training him.

Visit Ed Dunlop's 

Saturday, 12 June 2021

Saturday's 2yo Thougths (12th June)

Another late post. 

Hopefully, as they say, better late than never. 

1:55 Bath - 

Doesn't look the most competitive race. Symphony Perfect is held in some regard by Hannon and a progressive type. No price but should take some beating. Lucky Shake was in a significant betting guide on her last start. Crisford's charge had a wide draw and suffered by doing a little too much to get to the lead. To be fair it was a dismal effort and although interested in seeing how this daughter of Zelzal goes I'll be watching this race with my hand in my pocket. 

3:55 Chester - 

A competitive-looking race. Robjon is a decent horse who ran well under a penalty. He has that burden today but a sturdy type who runs to the line. You always worry a horse will be unsuited by this turning course so that's something to consider. War Brave run much better over course and distance after disappointing on debut at Leicester. David Loughnane's two-year-olds are in form and this compact gelding has claims. He has proven he handles this course which is a positive. Whether he is quite as good as Robjon only time will tell. Roman Dragon is a speedster and may fair better on this faster ground. A watching brief. 

4:15 York - 

This Class 3 race should have some strength and depth. Worth keeping an eye on these on future starts. I like Bosh, trained by Richard Hannon, who ran well on debut and should be suited by this step up in distance. The bookies aren't giving much away. Claim The Stars ran well on debut when looking inexperienced but running well. That was a gritty race and this horse has ability. Likely to lead, this colt will lead and could hold on. There doesn't look much value going on here. I would fancy Bosh each-way if odds allow but I doubt that will happen. 

Author: Jason Coote

Thursday, 10 June 2021

Thursday's 2yo Thougths (10th June)

I will try to keep this as brief as possible.

Four two-year-olds races:

1:00 Nottingham - 

Looks a battle of the favourite with Love De Vega well expereinced against the Godolphin colt King's Guard. I can't see much value going on with both of these. Canmore would have claims if well backed and may be a horse with a touch of value at 8 on the exchanges. However, this horse would need to be a rare talent to beat Love De Vega on debut and although possible probably unlikely.

1:15 Newbury - 

A competitive race. It wouldn't surprise me to see Sovereign Prince run well today after disappointing on debut behind Bethersden Boy who has a penalty after a nice victory at Newmarket. A good looking colt. Harrow may have each-way claims if priced in single figures. Single Minded could have a fighting chance at giant odds. American Star cost a lot of money at the breeze-up sales and is well owned and trained. Ed Walker has been in flying form with his two-year-olds and although they don't usually win on debut this colt may have something in its favour. All in all a tricky looking race. 

6:00 Haydock - 

Tardis has very good claims here but will be price to chance unless drifting markedly in the betting. 

7:00 Haydock - 

A couple of well respected two-year-olds here with King Of Gold and I'm A Gambler who clashed at Great Yarmouth. You would imagine Tate's would win but it could be sod's law something else pops up to ruin such thoughts. Definitely no value to me win or lose. It will be interesting to see if Mr Professor runs better today at big odds. A good looking horse who is well owned and trained and probably disappointed when favourite at Catterick due to testing going. A tricky looking race where the favourite are priced to chance and taking a punt on others is chancing your arm. 

Author: Jason Coote

Monday, 7 June 2021

Monday's 2yo Racing Tips (7th June)

Starting the week with a post. 

1:00 Leicester - 

Not the easiest race to assess. I would let the betting settle for this 6f race on good to firm going. I have half an eye on Tom Dascombe's Rickenbacker. This son of Requinto was a giant price on debut at Chester when, seemingly, second string. He was slow away and a touch outpaced. This is a drop in class and this bay colt should be wiser for that introduction. Not the strongest of selections but has each-way claims. 

5:45 Pontefract - 

Karl Burke does well with his two-year-olds on their second start and Pontefract is a course he has seen success. True Jem wasn't overly fancied on debut but showed good pace until tiring in the closing stages in testing conditions. This faster surface should help her see out the race. It's worth noting that this daughter of Dabirsim was earmarked for the Woodcote Stakes which may add a little bit to hopes of a juvenile with potential. Interesting to see how the betting goes. May have each-way claims although if very weak in the betting it may be a negative. 

6:00 Windsor - 

Once again, a half confusing race and a few of these are hard to assess. Russelinthebushes sets the standard and the type of horse to lead on this dog-leg course and could take some catching. A couple of gritty head-bob loses saw connections step up in class to contest the Marygate Listed Stakes at York. After leading, she dropped back and it was a disappointing effort. There is always a chance she could be regressing and one reason why I wouldn't be tempted to bet at short odds. She may well win but that's the gamble of a horse whose had a couple of hard races. Clive Cox has been in flying form and most of his winners have come on debut. If You Can Dream is well drawn. This daughter of Showcasing could go well. I would take a look at the betting just before the off. If strongly fancied, I would fear this horse. Definitely of of the most likely to shine. Robert Cowell has been doing well with his juveniles this year and Turna was well backed on debut and led for a long way before tiring in the closing stages. This faster surface should be to the liking of this daughter of Kodi Bear. In addition, this course suits horses who race prominently. I can see Turna running well although the form is difficult to assess. Also, there is a worry a battle between the Russelinthebushes may see this set up for someone sitting in behind. A watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote

Friday, 4 June 2021

1:20 Catterick Racing Analysis (4th June)

1:20 Catterick  - 

I must apologise for posting this late. Been out and about on my bike and just got back and decided to write a quick post. 

Instinction, trained by Bryan Smart, has proven a fair level of ability and it's only burden here is a four-pound win penalty. In truth, this weight will probably not make a big difference to a bold show although the price is  pretty short and there doesn't look much value. 

Karl Burke has a few talented juveniles in his ranks and Illustrating is in the ownership of Clipper Logistics who are no stranger to talented two-year-olds. This bay daughter of Showcasing was withdrawn from the sales so most likely a private sale. The mare was a very talented horse in training with Charles Hills. She won four times from eleven starts including a Group 1, 2 & 3. There's been money for this March foal who could go well. The stable can be a little hit and miss with their fancied debutantes but I'd expect a decent run from her today. Whether she will be experienced enough to beat Instinction is up for debate. A relatively wide draw may be a negative and she wouldn't want to be tardy from the stalls because Smart's winner is likely to make all. 

Another daughter of Showcasing is Archie Watson's Red Showgirl racing in the familiar silks of The Hon R J Arculli. The winning mare was similarly owned, a winner and Listed placed. With the two favourites being so strong in the market, she is priced at 12/1 which may indicate the competitive nature of this race or a slight concern she isn't quite up to the standard of those mentioned. A prime draw may be a blessing. Most of Watson's horses lead so it will be interesting if this filly follows suit. I'd expect to see some money for this horse if fancied to win and there may be an option of a preemptive gamble. In general, winners from this stable are shorter odds. 

Jedd O'Keeffe is an under rated trainer and his two-year-old can go well on their second start. Mystic Moonshadow showed good pace on debut before tiring in the closing stages. Another daughter of Showcasing she cost 27,000 guineas when purchase at the yearling sales by her trainer. A wide draw is a slight concern but she looks the type to lead or sit in behind. She would definitely need to improve on her debut effort and be fitter today. There is a chance she could touch shorter odds in running and may have each-way claims. If seriously weak in the betting I would watch. 

Conclusion

It looks a race which revolves around the favourite. Instinction sets the standard and her ony burden is a four-pound penalty and a couple of races. She is likely to put down a professional effort and experience may be the key to winning. I couldn't bet at such short odds as there is little meat left on the bone. If you fancy an opponent you could well have a price on side if you hope to back a talented horse or hope the favourite regresses or disappoints. I have little doubt Illustration should be respected but the price on offer seems on the short side and a wide draw could be a stumbling block. You wouldn't want to give the favourite an easy lead as that could spell disaster. You may well get bigger odds in running. Mystic Moonshadow has experience on side and could well lead. Whether she is good enough to win is another matter. Improvement is needed and a wide draw could see those early exertions to gain a position take their toll in the closing stages. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote

Wednesday, 2 June 2021

Wednesday's Thoughts (2nd June)

A very quick post with a few horses of interest. 

1:00 Nottingham - 

Lady Fantasia has been well supported. Would have strong claims if starting a short priced favourite, if weak in the betting may give hope to others at a price. 

Catatumbo didn't achieve too much in a hot race on debut but would have fair each way claims if fancied in the betting. 

Sows isn't without a chance and may go well at a price. It wouldn't be a surprise to see money come for this filly trained by Richard Hannon. 

1:15 Ayr - 

Manaccan is quite interesting for John Ryan. Has been given a Class 2 stakes entry which suggests this son of Exceed And Excel has something going for him. A well bred colt that cost 100,000 guineas at the breeze up sales. Could give Dascombe's favourite something to think about. 

5:10 Kempton - 

A few non runners changing the shape of this race. Still, thankfully, enough for those who like an each-way punt and three places. Before Dawn ran a sound race on debut. Statistically a tough horse to beat. I was hoping to bet on Sunstrike each-way but the price is a little on the short side after being backed and I will have to wait and see if Gosden's daughter of Dark Angel drifts in the betting. Golden Romance is seemingly second string for Saeed bin Suroor and would have to be seriously backed to figure although they are often a touch shorter by the off. 

5:50 Ripon - 

An interesting race. This could well be a decent battle between the two favourites. I like Tim Easterby's Atomic Lady. She is well respected in the stable and didn't do much wrong last time out when bumping into a decent horse who had the run of the race over 6f. Atomic Lady should finish this race well. A shame there's only seven in this race, especially if daughter of Kodiac drifts to 4/1 or so (unlikely). Phinow is interesting. Charlie Hills could have a fair challenger in this bay colt especially if strong in the market. 

Author: Jason Coote

Saturday, 29 May 2021

5:40 Salisbury Racing Tips (29th May)

An interesting race over 5f on good to soft going.

Second Wind ran out a fair winner at Yarmouth on debut, taking advantage of Robasta who was 4/7f and struggled to play catch-up after a slow start. William Haggas [Second Wind] hasn't seen many two-year-olds on course this early season but this son of Kodiac was earmarked for a York Class 2 race but heads to Wiltshire with a win penalty. In my opinion it is always difficult to assess a winner. How do you limit a winner? That was a small field and the runner up [Robasta] has been placed twice since. It will be interesting to see if Second Wind can defy the burden. 

This looks a competitive race.

Rod Millman sends many of his better juveniles to race at Salisbury and Amazonian Dream is probably one of their better two-year-olds. In fact, I would go so far to say that the form of his first two starts is easily good enough to win an average maiden and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this son of Bungle Inthejungle contest pattern class. A good-looking colt with size and strength, he ran a sterling race on debut at Newbury. That was a decent race. He was very unlucky to bump into Tom Dasacombe's Flaming Rib when seemingly dropped in class at Haydock. The way the winners cruised past the opposition, I can only image he is group class. Amazonian Dream is a straightforward horse who has a level of ability. That is usually enough to win a race. Without doubt, he will run a race but will he win is another question. As always, it's about price to chance and value. I would rather bet on this horse each-way (if prices allow) but it's unlikely to get to that price. 

To add to the mix we have another trainer who I associate sending talented two-year-olds to Salisbury. Ralph Beckett unleashed Hello You who won impressively at Wolverhampton. Owner, Amo Racing Ltd have been splashing the cash like no ones business and Lovely Mana is worthy of respect. Beckett can win on debut, especially when his juveniles are strongly fancied in the betting (to be fair he is one trainer who can go well at a price). This daughter of Dabirsim out of a winning mare cost 115,000 guineas at the yearling sales. A horse I would fear. 

We don't stop at these three juveniles. There could be a dark horse hiding in the mist. Bosh, trained by Richard Hannon, may be a talented two-year-old. In fact I would go as far to say this bay colt has a level of ability. This son of Profitable out of a winning mare wasn't the most expensive yearling purchase at 62,000 guineas but money isn't always the answer to a talented two-year-old. Hannon has been in good form with his two-year-olds this season with five debut winners and plenty of others on their second start. If priced 10/1 and less sp has a fighting chance although I am always a little apprehensive about betting on horses on their first time outing. It's never an easy feat to beat an experienced horse. 

Saeed bin Suroor has been quiet this early season. He had his first two-year-old runner at Pontefract (28th May) and that colt disappointed. Home City doesn't look to be fancied in the betting but may have a hope if backed. The mare enjoyed a trip so whether this start over the minimum trip is up for question. However, the sire was a sprinter through and through. Home City has been earmarked for three decent races. A couple of Class 2 stakes races and even thoughts of going to Beverley for the Continental Two-Year-Old Trophy (Beverley 3:10). Those entries could well detail a talented horse. I think the betting will tell the story. If fancied to go well, I would consider this colt has to be priced 7/1 and less sp. 

Conclusion: Even a mundane looking race can hide potential stars of racing. Whether that will be the case here only time will tell. However, make no mistake this is a decent race with strength and depth. Form horses always have a distinct advantage and that's why Amazonian Dream and Second Wind (even with a win penalty) should be respected. It could be the case there are three debutantes heading here with hopes of a perfect start to their racing career. Lovely Mana, Bosh and Home City all catch the eye. The betting will seal the deal for Home City. If weak in the betting I would suspect he needs the run or a step up in distance. I would give Beckett's Lovely Mana a big shout if starting favourite and would be a live chance if not. I'm half interested in Bosh if available on the exchanges at a price. However, there is money for this colt and I would just fear betting at shorter odds because this race won't be a walk in the park. I would have to take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote 

Thursday, 27 May 2021

Friday's Thoughts (28th May)

It’s been a while since I have posted but my good friend Jason Coote has been writing a few posts to keep the blog ticking over. It was nice to see one of my three-year-olds to follow Empress Josephine come with a late rattle to get up and win the 1000 Guineas on Sunday. I mentioned this horse in December when unraced after being given a few significant entries as a 2-year-old last season. A few trackers have come through so I will give my thoughts quickly.

14:00 Yarmouth 28 May 2021 

A few nice looking 2-year-olds here but I will be keeping an eye on NEW SCIENCE for the Charlie Appleby team. I think with a few trainers Charlie's 2-year-olds have looked in need of the experience so far this season looking at his handful of runners, it’s not surprising with everything that has happened lately. Dam Alta Lilea was a decent type for Mark Johnston back in 2012. Alta Lilea won first timeout over seven furlongs at Leicester on good to soft going, her best performance was the following season when finishing third in the Park Hill at Donny. Bred to want further in time this looks a good starting point for the Lope De Vega colt. Trainer Charlie thinks a fair bit of New Science and has a decent strike rate at Yarmouth so I’m expecting a bold show here if under 15/2. 

17:05 Fairyhouse (IRE) 28 May 2021 

The lucky last at Fairyhouse here, well I will be hoping it is anyway. Back to my 3-year-old trackers from last season, they have been a bit hit and miss to be honest and that’s something I will look at after this season ends. ULSTER BLACKWATER made a promising debut for Joseph O’Brien at Leopardstown three weeks ago. Easy to back that day and looked to be given a nice ride without getting too serious. Joseph thought a bit of this Camelot filly as a 2-year-old plus has group entries this year, I will be seriously disappointed if Ulster Blackwater can’t make the frame at least here. We do have a few unexposed horses so I won’t be going mad and hopefully I can get an each price but that could be wishful thinking on my behalf. 

18:45 Haydock 28 May 2021 

Richard Fahey’s horses have looked in need of the run too this season and he’s a trainer I can’t seem to catch but it has to happen one day, it’s a shame only seven run here. NEAT AND DANDY was slowly away at Ripon a fortnight ago in heavy ground. Looking back at the race It looks like the Dandy Man colt definitely had more to give but wasn’t given a hard time. The price could be the key and if under 9/2 I will expect a decent run here. The Haydock King Tom Dascombe also brings one here and another who will be expecting a bold show from Lordman if supported in the betting. Not the easiest race to read. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Thursday's Thoughts (27th May)

I will keep this short and sweet. 

1:55 Ripon - 

Atomic Lady is well regarded and should be fitter, wiser and appreciate this step up to 6f. 

2:50 Haydock - 

Kingmax is well bred, owned and trained. Should go well but not much of a price. There may be option for those who are looking for an each-way alternative. Sharpe Riposte, Mot And The Messer & Tacaric Bay may hold value for a place and hope the favourite disappoints. 

3:25 Haydock - 

Jadhlaan will take a lot of beating. A horse highly rated by Johnston and I would be very surprised if not an easy winner.   

5:30 Carlisle -

Not the easiest race to assess. I wouldn't look beyond the top four in the market. Qwicken has good statistics, Wee Loch Lass is a consistent horse who should go well. Province ran much better last time out and the form of that race may be very good. Karl Burke has the Midas Touch when it comes to Carlisle, often popping up with a debut win, and Frisky could go well. 

6:05 Carlisle - 

Aleezdancer destroys the opposition last time out but carries a penalty here. I think he will need to be top class to beat Mattice who showed good pace and ability last time at York. 

Author: Jason Coote

Monday, 24 May 2021

7:05 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th May)

A fascinating race.

6f (6f1y) British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 5) (2yo)

As always, you may wish to let the betting settle before getting stuck in. Unless, you have an inkling your selection is going to be backed. 

That's the gamble. 

Horse racing is so much more than just knowing the horses, it's all about using your knowledge and skills to find value. Without value you may as well forget about betting. And so often, the best bets are as much about circumstance as being the best tipster since sliced bread. 

All these aspects are so simple to understand but so often ignored because punters don't think or too naive. 

I say these things to help rather than criticise. 

This race looks out of five horses. However, keep an eye on the betting as it might detail strength or a weak link. 

I will take a look at the main contenders, which, unsurprisingly, deals with those horses at the top of the market. 

It's worth noting on this turning course that a wide draw can be a problem. It isn't a fact but you need to take these things into consideration. For example, Jamie Osborne's Wrought Iron is drawn in stall nine (9). This son of Dark Angle is a very good-looking colt who is a capable two-year-old. He ran in a competitive on debut as Ascot but was outclassed but mostly paid the price for his inexperience. He showed good pace second time out at Newmarket when ridden by Saffie Osborne who took off a valuable 7lb. He showed good speed before tiring in the closing stages. That was pretty hot race and this race could be a little less competitive. In addition, this slightly less demanding course should be a positive. I suspect this race will take four or five seconds less time to run than Newmarket. 

With the two favourites being so strong in the market there is a chance this horse may drift in the betting on the exchanges (if not with bookmakers). However, the draw is a concern. This is where betting is like a double gamble and why you often need a big price to offer some protection to the situation. Because Nicola Curry can take one of two choices: either sit in behind or fly out of the stalls and try to get to the rail or as near to it as possible. If she takes the latter choice (it will be Osborne's decision) and fails, and pushed wide, running three or four deep, it's almost mission impossible. That's a worry. However, I do like the chances of Wrought Iron who could well hold each-way claims. Clearly, the bigger the price the better. Value is the key to any good bet. 

Not to say Wrought Iron is the best bet here but we are looking for a price (value) and assessing the opposition for pros and cons. 

That's the thing about gambling. 

A bet can be good and bad depending on all manner of variables. That's why, so often, to give a tip in advance of the start time is not the best idea. I know so many people do so but I'm telling you things can change quickly. I've bet on horses a minute before the start of the race which five minutes before hadn't even registered. 

Richard Hannon's Night Arc is one of those horses which I'm struggling to assess. It seemed a half decent debut at Leicester, although a small field which can be misleading. Then a dismal performance next time out at Ascot on testing going. That was a competitive Class 3 race and the form will hold up. Not that Night Arc ran his race. It was too bad to be true and I would draw a line through that disappointment. He steps up to 6f after taking a good couple of weeks off course. A nice looking horse. Pat Dobbs is likely to make the most of the low draw and sit handy. Hannon has been giving many and varied two-year-olds significant entries but this colt hasn't seen any yet which may be a slight negative. From my information, much better was expected at Ascot and that disappointment is sure to result in a much bigger price here. The low draw is a positive a luxury Wrought Iron doesn't have which should be factored into the betting. 

At the top of the market we have a couple of horses which re-oppose after showing some ability at Bath when racing over 5f. 

That was a hot race with Clive Cox's Instinctive Move running out a decent winner and all the rage in the betting. There is little doubt they went there expecting a big run and I'm sure that son of Showcasing is one of the best juvenile in the stable. 

However, we are interested in Poderoso and Dayem, respectively. 

Both two-year-olds have things going for them. I'm pretty sure connections will be heading here with hopes of tasting victory. 

Poderoso is a decent horse for Charles Hills and Amo Racing Ltd. This owner has been splashing the cash this season with a host of talented two-year-olds with umpteen trainers. This son of Kodiac out of a listed placed mare cost 225,000 guineas at the yearling sales. He was fancied to go well on debut at Newbury and did little wrong that day when finishing third and losing by just under one length. The form of that race has worked out well. 

To be fair, Poderoso was allowed to drift markedly in the betting at Bath and at one point was about 5/1 on the betting exchanges. That was a fantastic price. If he hadn't bumped into such a smart horse as Cox's Instinctive Movement it would have been a facile victory. He did little wrong, was given a lovely ride, and went from the front, gained a good lead and simply overhauled in the closing stages. Make no mistake, this horse has a fair level of ability and from a low draw is likely to lead. He could well hold a decent advantage coming into the final furlong. It could be a slight concern he's stepping up to six furlongs. It may be no problem at all but any changes bring uncertainty. We have to make an assessment and assumption. I think Poderoso will run a big race and if a drifter in the betting could be a hard nut to crack. I can't imagine him drifting to each-way prices, but if he did it would be a good bet. 

In truth, many punters will be looking at Eve Johnson-Houghton's Dayem to reverse the form, stepping up a furlong and returning with valuable experience. KHK Racing Ltd have some nice horses in their ownership and this son of Acclamation ran a fine race on debut. He was fancied in the betting but inexperience proved costly against the likes of Poderoso, Raging & Fair And Square. This attractive colt was given time to find his feet and given a considerate ride. I expected a bold show and he didn't disappoint when closing on the two leaders in the final furlong. He was just getting going and reason why many punters are likely to fancy Dayem to reserve the form with Poderoso over this extra furlong. He may well do just that. There's always a chance he will be similarly slow to gather pace and a turning track can be quite hard work for a horse in ways. I would expect him to run on well in the closing stages but could well be much bigger odds in running if trailing the likes of Poderoso at the halfway mark. This is what I mean about using your knowledge and insight to bet wisely. If you fancy him to win but fear he could be outpaced in the early stages or a bigger price in running then this may be the best bet. I expect Dayem to run well here but whether I would want to jump in at short odds is another thing. However, I do think connections rate this horse and like most juveniles they are often primed to go well on their second start. 

I would give Archie Watson's Bicep some hope if fancied in the betting as they are usually sharp and often lead. The stable haven't been in such sparkling form as previous years.

Conclusion: This is an in depth assessment, which some readers will enjoy while others will most likely hate. This race looks out of these horses. The betting will tell the story for most and help with assessment. It's a competitive race. I wouldn't be taking short odds and thinking it will be easy. I can see Poderoso leading and giving it a good go from the front. If touching each-way prices would be a good bet but very unlikley. I would have slight concerns about him getting the six furlongs as well as five. I like a horse to finish a race although he may well hold a big advantage and be able to coast to the line. I would be looking to bet on Dayem in running as I think that's where you will get the best odds. Definitely a horse with a chance. It's a race where you can go with the two favourotes, or, perhaps, have an each-way punt on something with a touch of value. Night Arc may be the dark horse here and that last disappointment may hide a decent juvenile. From stall one you can't ask for a better draw and I wouldn't knock anyone having an each-way punt at double-figure odds. It would be a positive if backed. I think Wrought Iron could go well. However, much is dependent on his start and whether he can get to the rail or sit in behind. Both are satisfactory options. If attempting to get to the rail and failing, running three or four wide, it would be a disaster. That is the gamble. In many ways it is a double gamble. I can see Wrought Iron getting to the front, most likely behind Poderoso, and running a decent race at big odds. 

Author: Jason Coote 

Thursday, 20 May 2021

Friday's Thoughts (21st May)

A few two-year-old races today. 

Let's have a quick look at these five juvenile events. Please bear in mind this post has been written on Thursday evening and I often use the betting to help in my assessment. I may well give an update but that might not happen as I'm busy. 

1:10 Goodwood - 

Fall Of Rome is likely to go well here. No surprise considering this son of Frankel is priced 4/9 (at the time of writing). Charlie Appleby has sent out four two-year-olds this season and they haven't visited the winner's enclosure yet. However, Fall Of Rome may well have proved positive on debut at Ascot if a little less inexperienced when racing over 5f. In truth, I didn't think James Doyle was at his best that day. What I did like was the way this colt finished his race and will be a tough nut to crack. I can imagine you saying he should be at prohibitive odds. True. I think this is the best of the Appleby two-year-olds we have seen so far and it would be no surprise to see this April foal win and be targeted for Royal Ascot. 

I must admit, I'm not interested in betting at short odds because you need about an 80% strike rate to make a few quid. Each to their own. 

I see Andrew Balding's Masekela is fancied to go well. Mick And Janice Mariscotti have some nice horses. Balding has seen two juvenile debut winners so far this season. I must admit, he can win on debut but I often find his shorter priced debutantes poor value. Sure, we can only take each horse as an individual. 

Can anything beat the favourite? There are always surprises. One horse that may have half a hope at big odds is Paul Cole's Wild Mountain who was fancied to go well on debut at Kempton when priced 5/2. Racing over 5f in the familiar silks of Mrs Fitri Hay, this son of Aclaim couldn't go the pace and was completely outpaced. Bad news for backers who must have been questioning whether this was one of the worst 5/2 shots they had ever had the misfortune of betting. With the favourite and Balding's horse half fancied in the betting, it's possible this colt will be pushed out in the betting, perhaps to the extreme on the exchanges. Time will tell. So, there may be an opportunity to get a few quid on this horse at big odds. I must say, if this horse is fancied to win, I'd expect it to be backed. Also, it is worth remembering that Paul Cole has very few unfancied horses win on their second start. 

Update: Backed from as big as 55 to 21 on Betfair. I, personally, laid my bet to a no lose bet of 20pts. 

To be fair, I can't see the favourite being beaten. But who wants to bet odds on? (Plenty of people, hey). 

I'm interested to see if Wild Mountain is backed from huge odds which may see an instant profit using the exchanges. 

It's a strange race that I would rather watch than bet. 

I'll have to keep the rest of this post short and sweet as it's taking too much time. 

1:30 Haydock

Wild Beauty looks to have a very good chance. Probably priced to chance so not much meat on the bone. I like an odd speculative bet as you don't need many winners to fill your pockets with loot. 

Friendly Vegan didn't do too much on debut at Hamilton when getting a slow start. However, this filly is a decent looker and I have a hunch she is better than seen. I think Keith Dalgleish's runner is priced about 12/1 (at the time of writing) and she may have half a hope. What would really catch my eye is if this daughter of El Kabeir is backed. I would prefer to wait and see if the gamble ensues. 

1:50 Bath - 

Clive Cox has the Midas Touch with his two-year-olds at Bath. He's already seen two or three juveniles scoot up this season. Caturra was fancied to go well on debut but seemed too inexperience and ill suited by Newmarket. I'm pretty sure this colt is held in some regard and could well breeze along here. The downside, it's very unlikely there is much value betting on this horse. The key to a good bet is value and that often comes about through circumstance. Strange but true. Once again, I'd let the betting settle just to get a feel for this race. If by some strange happening Phinow started favourite I'd be fearful of this horse. 

Update: Caturra well backed. 

2:40 Haydock - 

Interesting to see how Pink Storm goes for this 7f race after disappointing a touch last time out. No great thoughts about this race other than interested to see how Burke's goes. 

5:45 Catterick - 

Two winners head the field. Potentially a nice race although on soft going. I find Catterick a strange course. It's not one of my favourite tracks for finding winners. Will Ellade and Lucy Lulu defy the win penalties? Considering the latter was ridden by an apprentice last time out she may well feel the weight today. I quite like Poppy Petal who doesn't have such a burden. Not the easiest race to assess and in general fancied horses carrying penalties go well. 

Conclusion: Mainly writing this post to fill a space and I can't say I have too many strong opinions. Most that have a hope aren't going to be much of a price. 

Most interesting:

1:10 Goodwood - Fall Of Rome (no price but looks hard to beat)  

1:30 Haydock - Friendly Vegan (ideally if backed)

1:50 Bath - Cattura (not much of a price but should go well)

Author: Jason Coote

Monday, 17 May 2021

Monday's Thoughts (17th May)

A few two-year-old races today. 

1:00 Carlisle - 

Karl Burke is always flying high at this course with his juveniles and El Caballo looks to have a fine chance here. 

3:05 Redcar - 

The betting is taking time to settle for this and the second division which makes assessing this race problematic. The betting should help detail a few weak links. This looks a potentially tougher race than the 3:40. Archie Watson's Chief's Will has been supported and a stable that does well with their debutantes although they haven't been in such flying form as previous seasons. Stardust Gambler ran well on debut when 50/1. Ollie Pears is an underrated trainer and he places his horses well on their second start and they often go very well when fancied in the betting. A couple more horses may be of interest depending on betting. The very well bred Ruby Red was fancied to go well on debut but ran poorly. Always difficult to know whether a horse disappoints or is simply limited. The hood has been applied today which suggests they want to liven her up. May be some value at double-figure odds although to be a serious threat I would expect to see this filly backed if holding claims. A similar story for Karl Burke's Favourite Child who didn't achieve a great deal on debut. Would have serious claims if backed.

3:40 Redcar - 

A couple of interesting horses. Ollie Pears' Do It Today looks the type to improve for a step up to six furlongs. She didn't have much luck in running on debut at Beverley and would have gone closer if things had gone right. The form of that race is working out well and she could have fair each-way chances. Rhinoplasty ran in the same race on debut and finished behind Do It Today after showing good speed. Another horse that would register if backed.

5:05 Leicester -

A large field. Not the easiest race to assess. Eve Johnson Houghton's Hattie C ran in a tough race on debut at Salisbury and wasn't hard pressed and is sure to come on for the run. Georgia Dobie takes off a handy 5lb. Looks the type to hold fair each-way claims if prices allow. 

5:50 Windsor - 

A small field after four non runners. Cashew ran well last time out and has valuable experience. Looks a tricky race in ways with Blaast and Prism feared opponents. I would take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote