Wednesday, 22 September 2021

Wednesday's Thoughts (22nd September)

A very quick post.

2:00 Redcar - 

Vintage Choice ran well on debut when contesting the Convivial Stakes at York, a race worth £36,078 to the winner. William Haggas' charge earned £8,463 fir finishing a respectable third. This son of Lope De Vega cost a whopping 310,000g at the yearling sales. This looks a drop in class. Out From Under looks a fair juvenile and winner until the stewards looked closer. In realistic terms a winner without a penalty. Puntastic ran well on her first start at Haydock. There doesn't look much value for the two favourites. I would have concerns that Puntastic isn't quite up to the challenge so I will take a watching brief. 

6:45 Kempton - 

Monitor is held in some regard and went well on debut when finishing fifth but losing by a short distance. A step up in class and one mile saw a disappointing effort. This drop in class and back to 6f looks a fair opportunity to taste victory. There isn't much value at odds of 3/1 (if lucky).   

Tuesday, 21 September 2021

Tuesday's Racing Tips (21st September)

1:20 Beverley - 

Interesting to see how Jame's Tate's Stylish Icon goes. This bay filly was fancied to go well at Goodwood on debut but a slow start didn't help and after showing pace dropped back to finish sixth. I'd expect this filly to show more in this banded race. Dropping back from 6f to 5f may be a positive although there is always a slight concern a horse may be outpaced. It is best to consider the trainer knows best as if they don't it doesn't give us mere mortals much hope. The major concern is a wide draw. It might not be a problem with experience on side but it is a stumbling block. From a statistical point of view, Stylish Icon has very good claims. However, these juveniles often either win or unplaced which suggests a straight win if betting. With odds about 4/1 it's a fair price if not overly generous. I'd be tempted to wait and see if this horse drifts at some point to get that little extra value. 

6:20 Newcastle - 

An interesting if not complicated race. Sea King steps up in distance. He's a battling type and ran a sterling race last time before paying the price for a 2f battle. An out and out galloper he may well appreciate this extended trip. I have an eye on Mark Johnston's Pons Aelius who did little on debut at Goodwood when making his debut at Class 2. It was a dire performance but I often say the worse a horse looks on debut the better they are. This colt is very well bred and may well bounce back. He was priced 9/2 on his debut and you can't imagine he was fancied in the betting for no reason. Added to that point, Johnston has given this horse a couple more Class 2 entries which suggests there is some ability. I think the betting will tell the score. If Pons Aelius has a real hope he is likely to be backed from bigger odds. I would say, if he is priced over 9/1 I would think it is a bad sign and leave well alone. Ideally, he will be substantially backed and fancied in the market. Time will tell. Unless you are betting on the exchanges I wouldn't take a punt. I will try to get double-figure odds (15) and hope the money comes. If not, I'd lay the bet and watch. 

Tuesday, 14 September 2021

A Quick Look At My Last Post (14th September)

Quick look at my last post. First off was SHARVARA for Richard Hannon, the Kingman colt ran a decent race to be third but couldn’t land a blow with the front two, pretty sure Sharvara will be picking up a win soon enough. WANEES looks the business for Charlie Hills after what was a decent win at Ascot. A perfect ride by Dane O'Neill saw the La Havre colt make his challenge in the last furlong staying on well to win a touch cosy. Nice to get a win on the board. My next tracker was a bit of a mystery and a disappointment to be honest. I did have a decent bet at 5/1 the night before on the Karl Burke trained HYPERSONICAL who is well thought of at Spigot Lodge. I felt confident of a top three finish at least but was soon counting my losses as the Kingman colt never got involved and finished stone last. I’m still scratching my head over this one, interesting to see how the market speaks next time out but I will be very wary betting again after that run. BOUQUET won nicely and my other tracker in the race CANTERBURY BELL is better than that display and one to keep an eye out for. 

14:25 Sandown 15 Sep 2021 

Definitely not a race to get too heavily involved in with plenty of newcomers from the top yards turning up. A couple of trackers in this so I will just mention them. CABRAKAN did me for a few quid last time out when involved in a good old ding dong finish. The Richard Hannon trained Divine Prophet colt was a 20/1 shot that day and I actually thought I had it but Cabrakan was bumped at a crucial moment and that was the end of that, at least I got my each way money after finishing third. He could have more on his plate here with some nicely bred newcomers but if they disappoint this could be the chance to break his duck, really not sure if I will bet as it’s a tough little race. Next tracker is a newcomer and likely to be an outsider here but EXECUTIVE POOL could be worth checking out further on down the line for trainer Gary Moore. 

14:55 Sandown 15 Sep 2021 

I have three trackers here which always gives me a problem. ATHEBY sets the standard here for Jane Chapple-Hyam after finishing fifth here in the Betway Solario Stakes last month. Interesting to see how he goes here. The Richard Hannon trained Time Test colt HOLIDAY was certainly thrown in at the deep end in the Denford Stakes at Newbury last month, that’s a sign that Richard does like this colt. It was a big ask and after being up with the pace Holiday soon weakened, should be more at home here. This next tracker is DAYMAN who was heavily backed for his debut at Windsor last month but was disappointing, I have watched that race a few times and as much as I want to have a speculative each way here it’s hard to make a case for the David Loughnane colt after he finished well back on debut, David does rate this colt and that’s the only reason I may have a small bet. It’s a difficult race to be positive about any with a few newcomers also added to the mix. 

13:40 Yarmouth 15 Sep 2021 

Doesn’t get any easier here, seems to be one of those days when all races look tough. A couple of trackers again with plenty of newcomers with nice pedigrees. I will concentrate on my trackers only. ALVEDISTON wears a first time hood here for trainer William Haggas. The New Bay colt was well-supported on debut at Newbury last month. The colt was up with the pace but faded the final furlong, I say faded but looked eased down to me. I would expect him to come on for that run but this could be a strong race. If I can get an each way price I’m going to give Alvediston another chance. VINTAGE FASHION is my other tracker who I imagine will be a big price for Mark Johnston. Thanks for reading and good luck on a tough day.

Friday, 10 September 2021

Friday's Horse Racing Tips (10th September)

I'll start by saying I don't have any strong fancies today. 

A busy Friday. They seem to save all the two-year-olds for the loving and giving day (Friday's child, if that seems out of context).

Let's have a quick look. 

1:00 Sandown - 

Desert Team, trained by Simon Crisford, is all the rage in the betting. In fact, looking on Betfair, almost 80% of all the money has been bet on this son of Invincible Spirit. If priced 6/4 and less, I really wouldn't oppose this colt. Poet, Level Up and Reversion have all shown glimmers of ability. I am always careful when horses drop down from 6f to 5f because there is a marked difference in pace to the point I would have concerns some may be outpaced. Not a betting race for me although if ultra strong in the betting the favourite will be hard to stop (but holds little value becuase you can never quite tell what a debutante will do). 

1:10 Doncaster - 

A competitive Class 3 race. A few of these are well respected by their stables: Bay Of Honour, Leuven Power & Kingdom Come. Unilaterism is a decent-looking colt, while Galiac, ran well second start for William Muir. 

As you can tell, this looks a right old mix of hopes and dreams. The only thing that would tempt me to bet here would be a speculative price and value. 

I can't see much of that going on. 

I will give you a brief thought about a few:

Leuven Power will improve a good deal for this step up in distance. 

Kingdom Come is held in some regard and showed good pace before tiring on debut. Will strip fitter today and I'd expect a bold show. 

Galiac may have each-way claims at double-figure odds but I don't feel motivated to bet. 

A fascinating race but I'll be watching. 

1:50 Chester - 

A competitive heat. A tricky-looking race with a trio of winners. Artaois may have claims for Simon Crisford. This son of Kodiac showed good pace on debut before dropping back. I'd keep an eye on the betting. If priced 13/2 and less SP holds claims but it wouldn't be a surprise to see this horse drift in the betting which could be a negative. I have Adjourn on my list of 10 Dark Horses and pretty sure this son of Postponed has a level of ability but trying to beat proven horses on debut, especially on a turning course really is a tough ask. I'd be looking at this horse on its second start. I wouldn't feel comfortable betting in this race because it looks tough. 

2:00 Sandown - 

Natasha carries a win penalty but a talented filly. Making Music was a long way behind Gosden's charge at Kempton after a slow start and gradually gathering pace. She is well respected by Muir and I'm sure this daughter of Mastercraftsman will improve quite markedly. However, whether she will improve past Natasha is another thing. If Making Music drifted to the extreme (betting) there might be some hope for a small each-way bet but being two places really knocks that thought on the head. From my perspective, this horse's strength is the place and you'd be hoping for the win, which might need the favourite to blow a gasket. Unlikely a race to make much use. 

4:00 Chester - 

This race was my major hope. However, things change. Betting is all about circumstance and timing. Aegis Power is interesting and looked a fair chance until substantially backed. Definitely a live chance but I can't see much value. Hapap is held in some regard by Richard Hannon. He was very keen on debut and if doing the same here would struggle to win over this extended trip of 1m 2f. A race I would rather watch unless Balding's horse drifts markedly in the betting. Even then, I would rather bet each-way three places, which isn't possible with just seven runners. 

 4:13 Salisbury - 

Wind Your Neck In ran on well on debut and will improve a lot. Island Bandit was a giant-priced winner second time out for Heather Main. A good-looking colt who was simply written-off for a poor debut and being trained by a lesser fashionable yard. You give a decent horse to most trainers and they will do well. Even with a penalty, a horse to be respected. User Kindly pulled fiercely on debut at Yarmouth and has claims if fancied in the betting. There's been money for Paul Cole's Jack D'Arcy who, again, would have claims if priced in single-figure odds. Internal Conflict has recieved a Class 2 entry for Richard Hannon which suggests some hope. While Snapcracklepop is a good looker and could improve on his second start. I'd have to let the betting settle to appreciate what is going on here. Not a race I would be betting. 

All in all, a muddling day. 

Author: Jason Coote 

Tuesday, 7 September 2021

Wednesday's Racing Tips (8th September)

Another day, another dollar.  

That's the kind of thing a Space Cowboy would say. 

Four two-year-old races. I don't consider nursery races in my workload as they are not my cup of tea (although that race type can make for very good bets). 

A very quick look at the quartet of money races. 

That's what you've got to be thinking with each and every race. Where is the money? Meaning how can I make the most of this race and put the cash in my wallet and walk off into the sunset. 

I had intended to write a line or two about each race but the Carlisle doesn't motivate me at all and the Doncaster race is Class 2 and I'm not keen on these competitive heats. The only exception is if I can get a giant price on something. 

So we are left with two races at Wolverhampton. 

5:15 Wolverhampton

I have my eye on Richard Spencer's Space Cowboy. Whether this turns out to be a good idea or not we will see. 

This son of Kodi Bear races in the familiar silks of Rebel Racing Premier IV. I actually sat and chatted with Phil Cunningham while on the train to Great Yarmouth, departing from Norwich, obviously, as the Bittern Line has one route in and out. A lovely man. My brother and I had a pleasant chat with him. Funnily enough Eddie ''The Shoe'' Fremantle is often on that very train too. I haven't got to chat with him yet. 

Anyway, getting sidetracked by the glitterati of horse racing. 

I have little doubt Space Cowboy is one of the best if not the best two-year-old in the Spencer stable at Sefton Lodge. 

A good-looking colt. 

He was well backed for his debut at Newbury over 7f. 

He pulled like crazy. 

Any hope of winning disappeared as quick as you could say ''Jamiroquai'' who I'm pretty sure the horse is named after. Well, the song more than the artist who always seemed a bit of an acquired taste. However, the lyrics: ''With a sunshine smile on my face...'' might be apt if this bay colt flies home. 

Out of an unraced mare, this March foal cost £110,000 so connections will be expecting more than that disappointing debut. I often say: ''The worse a horse looks on debut the better it is.'' Yes, I know it sounds illogical but it is often a very good pointer to a talented juvenile as they often have their quirks. 

Dropping back to 6f and a low(ish) draw may see a bold front-running display. I find that a lot of the stable's two-year-olds like to lead on their second start. I'm also hoping that after nearly a month on the sidelines this youngster is a reformed character. His hay has been scented with lavender and he is calmness itself. 

I will say a little prayer if it helps. 

There has been money for Space Cowboy so I imagine connections are hoping for a big run. I think 14/1 was available early and it's now more like 8/1. Trying to preempt gambles is never an easy task unless you know someone wants to lighten a suitcase full of money. Perhaps that's happening. 

I wouldn't like to suggest Space Cowboy is temperamental as any debutante can have a bad day at the office. However, it is probably a wise thing to consider he might be headstrong. Dropping back in distance is no doubt used to temper that enthusiasm and pace. You don't want to be betting on a keen horse over 7f as that is hard work. 

I have little doubt this drop in distance will be seen as some kind of antidote to the ''pulling like crazy fear''. 

At big odds, I would be tempted to have a bet and hope for the best. I wouldn't, personally, bet each-way just in case he is keen as that would point to winning or being unplaced. But each to their own. 

I'm looking forward to seeing how Space Cowboy goes today and hope he runs a big race and enjoys the experience because this horse has a level of ability. 

Note: And that's what it's all about making the most from each and every race. 

5:50 Wolverhampton -

I don't like betting short odds, and won't be, but this looks an ideal race for Serenity to get off the mark. 

Author: Jason Coote

Friday, 3 September 2021

Saturday's Horse Racing News (4th September)

Today was an improvement from Thursday when all of the trackers ran well. First was the Michael Bell trained IMPROVISE who opened up at 6/1 on Thursday night, I was on the Iffraaj filly like a shot, actually touched around 15/8 before drifting back out. I was a bit worried when the O’Meara filly Smiling Jayne started to shorten in the betting and even more worried as she came with a late rattle to nearly chin Improvise on the line. That was a decent performance from Smiling Jayne and one to look out for. A great start to the day for me with Improvise winning. Next up was Leuven Power who was also well-supported for trainer Roger Varian. I took 5s each way and watching the race I thought my money was well down the pan as he was ridden for most of the race but managed to stay on to grab third. My other tracker Designer ran a cracker to finish second. Last but not least was the odds on favourite SNAFFLES who ran out an impressive winner in Ireland. 

14:15 Thirsk 04 Sep 2021 

The Richard Hannon trained Kingman colt SHARVARA ran in the Convivial Stakes class 2 race at York last month which is always a good indicator. Owned by Middleham Park and bought for 116,000 euros at the Arqana Breeze Up Sale. Sharvara was easy to back for his debut race when sent off a 20/1 shot. I personally thought this was a cracking debut and Sharvara knew his job when looking professional, it was only the final half furlong when the front three had flown he was eased by Ryan Moore, I’m pretty sure Sharvara has more to give but the only negative here is Charlie Appleby turns up with newcomer Mythical Dancer. Sharvara is around 4s at the time of writing. 

14:50 Thirsk 04 Sep 2021 

I don’t need to tell anyone how I love a Karl Burke second timeout 2yo and he turns up with one here. I have already taken the plunge at 5s each way which hopefully is the right decision, if HYPERSONICAL drifts then I will be in the shit. The Kingman bay colt was purchased at the Craven Breeze Up Sales for 335,000 gns and owned by John and Jess Dance. I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen the best of the Kingman colt after being bumped at the start on his debut at Haydock and losing plenty of ground. Hypersonical was eased into the race but couldn’t make up the ground he lost at the start. That was a pretty hot race and he should be more at home here. Hypersonical is 4s at the time of writing. 

14:00 Ascot 04 Sep 2021 

The odds on favourite Alotaibi will obviously take all the beating here for John Gosden but I will take him on with the Charlie Hills trained WANEES who cost 325,000 gns. Alotaibi beat Wanees by a good few lengths at Newbury when they met last month. The Le Havre colt travelled smoothly but jockey Jim Crowley seemed to give him an educational ride and Wanees wasn’t given a hard time, I’m hoping with the weight he gets plus a stronger ride will see Wanees can come home in front and go on to better things. 

14:35 Ascot 04 Sep 2021 

Two trackers. 

BOUQUET trained by John Gosden. 
CANTERBURY BELL Trained by William Haggas. Thanks for reading and good luck.

Author: Craig Newton

Thursday, 2 September 2021

Friday's Horse Racing Info (3rd September)

I had high hopes for a decent day Thursday but it turned out to be a disappointing after a few of my trackers disappointed. 

First off was the James Ferguson trained Viadelamore who I thought was a cert for a place at least at Salisbury. I was excited to see some early support when backed into 8s from 20s but the money faded a bit like Viadelamore’s effort who could only manage fourth. 

My other tracker Outbreak did win nicely in the end and the Dark Angel looks a nice one for Qatar Racing who gave him as a 2-year-old to follow in my blog at the start of the season. 

Persist ran well enough in the next at Salisbury but looked a bit disorganized towards the end of the race when struggling to find a gap, pretty sure Persist will win soon. Kinrarra was disappointing after drifting before the off. 

I expected a bit more from Bantry in Ireland who only managed fourth and New York City will have learned a lot after finishing third. 

16:20 Newcastle 03 Sep 2021 

The Marco Botti trained Tatsumaki looks a nice type after winning first time out at Newmarket last month but has a win penalty here to make life a bit more difficult. I will be taking him on with the Roger Varian trained LEUVEN POWER. The Cotai Glory colt was purchased from Book 1 at the October Yearling Sales for 180,000 gns. He made his debut at Salisbury just over a week ago when easy in the market. Leuven was slowly into stride that day and rode along until staying on again the last furlong. Roger does have a decent record at Newcastle especially when under 15/2 so as long as Leuven doesn’t drift it’s an each way all the way for me, 5/1 at the time of writing. Designer is another tracker here for John Butler after running better than her odds on debut when finishing fourth at 125/1, not one to be taken lightly here. 

15:30 Haydock 03 Sep 2021 

IMPROVISE is another who will hopefully improve after running green on debut at Newmarket. The Michael Bell trained Iffraaj filly was slowly away that day before making ground but couldn’t quite find the gap and then coasted home. I’m pretty sure Improvise is better than that. A full-sister to Eightsome Reel who finished third in a Listed race in 2019 for the same combination Michael Bell and The Queen. The betting should give us some clues, if over 9/2 it would be a negative. 

16:50 Down Royal (NI) 03 Sep 2021 

Yes I know SNAFFLES Is odds on but this Joseph O’Brien colt let me down for a few quid when finishing fifth on debut at Leopardstown last month. I took a good price that day before Snaffles was well-supported. The Churchill colt was outpaced before finishing with plenty left in the tank. Joseph does think a bit of Snaffles and connections will be disappointed if he can’t get involved here. 

Hoping for better luck and thanks for reading as always.

Wednesday, 1 September 2021

Thursday's Horse Racing Info (2nd September)

As far as results go it was another disappointing post last week but again a few of my trackers ran with promise and I won’t be giving up just yet. Awesome Wonder was done by a couple of things at Tipperary, first drawn out wide and then when making her run kept hanging her head to one side giving the jockey no chance. Pretty sure a win will come if she learns to settle better. History put in an improved performance finishing second. Emperor Caradoc kept on without threatening at Carlisle and another that will improve second timeout for trainer Bryan Smart. Ring Of Beara won like an odds on favourite should and my other tracker Bazalgette could have a race in him further down the line, hopefully at a big price. 

16:30 Dundalk (IRE) 02 Sep 2021 

Only seven runners but a race I’m looking forward to. I actually have three trackers here who all make their debut. New York City comes with a big reputation for the all conquering Aidan O’Brien team. The 600,000 gns colt is a full-brother to Invincible Army who was trained by James Tate and had a impressive 2yo season before going onto have an outstanding career winning plenty of big races along the way. Interesting to see how the betting is and if he is fully tuned up for this debut run. Bantry is another well-thought of colt, I have in fact put this Lope De Vega colt up before and was being well-supported until withdrawn. A 42,000 gns purchase and a half-brother to several winners. Trainer John Murphy does rate this colt and I expect whatever he does here he will improve again. Last one is Anatoli who is a well-thought of Acclaim colt. It’s a difficult race for a bet with only two places and the fact my trackers are debutantes. Bantry is interesting and I may have a couple of quid win for interest but not a race to go mad on. 

13:30 Salisbury 02 Sep 2021 

You know you need your head tested when you get involved in a race like this but hey that’s what gambling is all about. Plenty of newcomers from top yards here that could be anything really so It wouldn’t surprise me if we have a few nice ones. I have two trackers here, the first being the likely favourite Outbreak who ran a decent debut at Chelmsford a couple of weeks ago when finishing second, could be any amount of improvement here and if the newcomers are not up to much will take all the beating. My second tracker is interesting so I will be having a small speculative each way on the James Ferguson trained VIADELAMORE who ran a pretty hot race at Newmarket last month. The Invincible Spirit colt will definitely have to improve to beat Outbreak but sometimes as we know the experience of the first run will bring 2yo’s on plenty. Viadelmore was easy to back on debut and up with the pace but couldn’t get involved and faded to eighth that day after running green. Yes it’s a gamble but James does rate Viadelamore so I will take a chance and hope for a place at least. 

Times getting on but two more well-thought of trackers in the 2.00 Salisbury. 

Kinrarra trained by Mick Channon. 
Persist trained by William Haggas. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Author: Craig Newton 

Tuesday, 31 August 2021

2:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (1st September)

A Novice Stakes over 5f (5f6y) on Standard going. 

Eight two-year-olds take part: all raced including a winning debutante. 

An intriguing race. 

Live In The Dream did just that for connections when tasting victory at Wolverhampton (5f) just three days ago. It wouldn't be a surprise if this colt is a non runner, although Georgia Dobie being booked for the ride (claiming 3lb) gives the impression they mean business. 

Adam West has trained a number of two-year-olds over the last few seasons with mixed results. 

Probably the best juvenile being Bambino Lola (2017) who won well on debut at 25/1. She was a capable filly who achieved three wins from nine starts, far from disgraced in her sole attempt at Group 3, when finishing eighth in the Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes, beaten less than four lengths. 

It's interesting to note the owners of Live In The Dream [Steve & Jolene De'Lemos] have another very talented horse in training with West, in the shape of Live In The Moment who is pretty much a Listed-class horse. 

It's always great to see the smaller trainers win, especially on debut. Live In The Dream was fancied to go well and won well at odds of 20/1. He was given a lovely ride from his plum draw (1) by Robert Havlin. I know my brother was cheering because he had a nice win of this son of Prince Of Lir out of an unraced mare. 

(Sadly, I didn't bet) 

Under the welterweight of 9-12 (minus the 3lb from the apprentice) it will be interesting to see if this May foal can make it two wins from two. 

It's always difficult to limit a winner because you never quite know what they have left in the tank. However, this looks a stiffer task and the win penalty will not be an easy burden to shoulder. 

The favourite is likely to be Richard Hughes' Kimngrace who is definitely one of the better two-year-olds in the stable. 

Making her debut at Class 2 tells the story. A well-built daughter of Profitable cost £55,000 at the breeze-up sales. She ran a sterling race on debut at Newmarket over 6f especially given how keen she was in the early furlongs. In fact, she fairly cruised to the lead when hitting the two-furlong pole only tiring in the closing half furlong when finishing fourth behind Frankella. By all accounts that was a very good performance. She dropped back a furlong when contesting the St Hughes Stakes (Listed race) where she was a 14/1 shot. Things didn't really go to plan that day with a slightly awkward start and losing her position mainly due to being keen as Jack Mitchell tried to keep her restrained but in the process she had lengths to make up. Kimngrace ran on without troubling the leaders but gave the impression she could have done better if not so keen. 

She is likely to appreciate this drop in class and could well take a lot of beating if not slightly concerned by her temperament. She may have the class to pull herself to the front and win but a horse that doesn't settle is one that will often disappoint. This March foal is the class act here but I would be careful betting at too short odds just in case she pulls her chance away. 

George Boughey has hit the ground running this season with his two-year-olds and they haven't stopped to take a breath. Sassy Rascal is a small daughter of Mehmas. Fillies come in all shapes and sizes and it doesn't mean to say a little one can't be as good as a big one. However, Sassy Rascal is a shadow of the impressive Kimngrace who would dwarf her. She has an official rating of 79 after a few fair efforts. Last time out proved a disappointment and I would have concerns she has regressed. Definitely not a horse I would be betting at relatively short odds. 

Andrew Balding is always a consistent trainer who fields not only a sizable string of juveniles but always has a number which achieve success at pattern class. Build Me Up was fancied to go well on debut at Sandown but had little hope when running to her left when leaving the stalls. It was a race to forget. Much better was seen when making her return at Bath. This time the hood was applied and even from a wide draw, still running into space, this daughter of Speightstown showed improvement to chase home Tyson who finally got off the mark. I would say that Build Me Up has ability but she doesn't look the most straightforward of horses and a wide draw may not be the best starting point or this turning course. She should be learning with experience but she doesn't look the most tractable horse and if running wide to challenge it would be a concern. 

Quel Kaima hasn't been disgraced on her two starts to date. This daughter of Exceed And Excel is a fair-looking filly who ran well for a long way at Newmarket over 6f before giving way to a couple of talents. Whether this drop in distance will see her slightly outpaced I'm not so sure. From stall one her jockey [Shane Kelly] will be wanting to be competitive and it would be a problem if she loses that plum position on the rail. I'd have slight concerns that one or two of these will be too speedy over this five furlongs. 

Majesty's Pleasure, Above It All & Musical Mystery are best watched. 

Conclusion: I'm looking forward to this race. A bit of a mix here with a few horses displaying some temperament which is a bit of a red flag for me. Live In The Dream looks straightforward and the type to run from the front. It wouldn't be a surprise to see he is a non runner. If not, I think the burden of the win penalty may be too much. I'm not keen on Sassy Rascal because she looks to be regressing and slight physique may be suggestive of why she is on the back foot. Build Me Up isn't without ability but, again, she looks a bit clumbsy and not the most easy to maneuver which is not what you need on this turning course. Additionally, a wide draw may initiate problems. Kimngrace is lovely-looking filly who has a level of ability. If she was guaranteed to settle I'd have high hopes but she seemed a touch too keen even dropping back to five furlongs. She may be able to misbehave and still win but at relatively short odds you need every positive and one negative brings questions. With consideration, I'd have to take a watching brief.

Author: Jason Coote

Photo: Source Racing Post

Betting: Looking for Angles (31st August)

Not only do we want to be a good gambler, but an efficient one.  

Neither is an easy task. 

1:00 Ripon

A seven-horse race. 

How would you make money on this race? You could do any number of bets. 

A straight win. An each-way punt on an outsider (a place paying more than the favourite to win). 

I guess, if you know enough, there is always the best bet in any race. So you make the most of your knowledge, time and money. 

An efficient way of betting. The only answer being the race result (''weighed in''). 

But back to this race at 1:00 at Ripon. 

The greatest aspect of betting on the exchanges is that you have versatility. You can try to correct a mistake (in a rush I've bet on the wrong horse). Lay a bet off if for whatever reason you wish to cash out or even take a loss (rather than fear losing your full stake). Not forgetting that exchange prices, especially when betting on outsiders, are often double or triple the price. Put it this way, I've never seen an outsider shorter than the bookmakers at the off (it's probably happened, but you get the idea). 

I often fear trying to be too clever for my own good. 

It's a weakness. 

At such times the gambling Gods or Devils are looking down and decide they are going to teach anyone who thinks gambling is a walk in the park, that they are really climbing Mount Everest, if not falling from the top, bouncing from rock to rock until a mangled carcass lays in a heap and your only friends are the vultures that pick your bones.

We've all been there. 

Anyway, here's my thought for this race. Ideally, get 11/4 on Lucy Lulu (exchange price, if possible, but looking unlikely, touched 3.55) and because I think she will lead and touch shorter odds in running, lay at even money for a free bet and hope, beyond hope, that Lucy Lulu wins. 

If I'm being far too clever for my own good, we'll soon find out. 

Oh the pain of broken bones. 

Touched odds on in running, but no cigar, finished second. 

Photo: Pixabay free for commercial use and no attribution + Betfair Graph 

Saturday, 28 August 2021

4:55 Windsor Racing Tips (28th August)

A fascinating race. 

Thirteen two-year-olds take part over 6f (6f 12y) on good to firm going. 

Kimngrace is a non runner, which marginally helps with easing the competitive nature of this race. 

But not much. 

To be fair this looks a very competitive heat and I would need a price to even tempt to bet. 

An interesting mix of form horses and debutantes. I can imagine most of the trainers hoped to turn up here with a win in their sights. I doubt they will be so confident now. 

Dayman has been very well backed. I made a balls up not getting in early as this horse trained by David Loughnane in the ownership of Amo Racing limited was double-figure odds on the exchanges. It's a fraction of those odds. I have little doubt this son of Oasis Dream has ability but betting on debutantes can be a very tricky business. The stable can go well with their newcomers and I wouldn't be surprised to see a big effort. 

Karl Burke's Sherdil has run well on both starts to date when losing narrowly. He is held in some regard by the stable and I thought he would take some stopping last time at Thirsk. I can imagine Shane Kelly pressing on and from this low draw may well take some pegging back.

Another horse with a very good draw (1) is William Haggas' Scattering. This son of Showcasing is a good-looking colt who made a nice debut over 5f and looked to have strong claims when stepping up to 6f when fancied to go well at Goodwood in a Class 2 race with a big purse [£13,085]. However, he was much too keen and ruined any chance of winning, especially in the testing conditions. He's been off a month most probably working on that problem. A horse with ability but you wouldn't want to be pulling hard against this level of opposition. That factor is off putting. 

Clive Cox often goes well at this course and Codify looks a little disappointing but may return here with a live hope. This son of Lawman is a very good-looking colt who was fancied in the betting on his second start and was flying for the first 6f and tired in the closing stages. This drop back in distance will help. A wide draw is a slight negative but a horse I would respect and if drifting to double-figure odds may have a fighting chance. 

Conclusion: This looks a competitive heat and it really is difficult to pick between the lines. I can see all the four horses noted making a bold show. The only thing that would tempt me to bet would be a half speculative price but that looks unlikely. It may have helped if Kimngrace had remained. Scattering may pull which is a potential problem. Dayman is held in some regard but it's no easy feat to win on debut especially against experienced horses. To beat these form horses at the first time of asking would need a pretty smart horse. That may be the case but betting at shortish odds (after missing the price) doesn't offer much value. You wouldn't want a slow start on this speed course. Sherdil is a fair horse and looks straightforward. I think he will lead and try to hold that advantage. I would be surprised if he doesn't hit the frame. Codify is a lovely-looking colt and I think he will run well. He has been made to look worse by taking his chance over 7f. That was a step too far and if touching double-figure odds may be an each-way hope.

Author: Jason Coote

Wednesday, 25 August 2021

Thursday's Two-Year-Old (2yo) Racing Update (26th August)

At first glance, my trackers in my last post, looked pretty disappointing. However, I’m hoping a few who finished down the field will improve for their second start and even better price. 

The first tracker was Sense Of Duty who obliged at odds of 2/9. 

Let’s move on. 

I had two trackers in the first at Salisbury. Firstly, Dark Swansong who opened up around 7/2 the night before. It left me with a dilemma as I wanted an each way price. Before I made my mind up he'd been supported into 11/4. In the end, the Clive Cox colt went off at 15/8. No bet for me. Dark Swansong ran a decent race finishing second to Hierarchy, who made it tow out of two wins and looks a nice type. 

My second tracker in this race was the Roger Varian trained Leuven Power who took a walk in the market. I was pretty sure today wouldn’t be the day. I will watch the betting next start. Leuven Power was slowly away and never involved. Perhaps one not to give up on just yet. 

Another worth remembering is the John Gosden trained Delphinus who looked to be finding her feet late on. 

16:50 Tipperary (IRE) 26 Aug 2021 

A couple of interesting trackers in this one as the O’Brien’s take each other on with potentially two nice fillies. Aidan runs the Galileo filly History who cost a cool 2,800,000 gns at the October Sales. History made her debut at the beginning of the month and made a good impression finishing second to Cairde Go Deo who looks a nice type herself. History is sure to come on plenty here but I will take a shot at the Joseph O’Brien filly Awesome Wonder if I can get an each way price, been supported from 13/2 into 5s at the time of writing. Awesome Wonder cost 140,000 euros at the Orby Sales and also made a nice debut when staying on fifth at Naas at the start of the month. It’s definitely not just between these two with other smart newcomers entering the mix. 

14:40 Carlisle 26 Aug 2021 

A Bryan Smart newcomer to note is Emperor Caradoc. Often, newcomers are sometimes worth watching on debut. 

14:00 Ffos Las 26 Aug 2021 

Two trackers again here and one is the odds on favourite for trainer Richard Hughes. Ring Of Beara ran a cracker at Goodwood last month when finishing second to Imperial Fighter at Goodwood, that looks decent form so any improvement should see the Wootton Bassett colt involved at the finish. My next tracker actually ran in the same race and will have to take a giant step forward here. The Mick Channon trained Bazalgette needs to improve but I will chance a very small speculative each way at 25s and hope he can sneak a place. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Author: Craig Newton 

Monday, 23 August 2021

Loves Me Likearock Wins Nicely (24th August)

I thought I was onto a winner with my selection on Saturday Invigilate at Chester and was pretty pleased with the start the Acclamation filly made, that was as exciting as it got I’m afraid as she faded the final furlong and finished third. I had a pretty decent bet so it wasn’t the best start to the Saturday and it didn’t get much better as HMS Endeavour was pulled out before his run at Curragh. My last tracker was the Charlie Hills trained LOVES ME LIKEAROCK who won nicely at Lingfield at short odds. I did mention a couple of trackers on Sunday on twitter that won too. KIng Of Conquest and Ernest Rutherford. Let’s hope for a better day on Tuesday when a few trackers I have been waiting for run. 

16:40 Newbury 24 Aug 2021 

It looks like shortie to hopefully get the ball rolling when the William Haggas trained Sense Of Duty makes her second start. The Showcasing filly had certainly been showing something at home as backed into second favourite at Newmarket on her debut at the beginning of the month. Sense Of Duty didn’t get going until getting a clear passage a furlong out and despite still looking green made up ground right to the line to finish second, not sure how strong the race was but William does rate Sense Of Duty and hopefully she can do the business second time out here. 

17:05 Salisbury 24 Aug 2021 

This looks like a tasty race to be honest, should I keep my money in my pocket? Yes but will I? No, probably not. I have two trackers in this but first I do like to follow Martyn Meade and his 2yos as he seems to bang winner after winner and runs Account here. We already have two debut winners in the field who will have extra weight to make life more difficult here but still can’t be ruled out. First tracker is the unraced Roger Varian Leuven Power for the King Power team of course. Roger does rate the Cotai Glory colt and if strong in the market could well be in the mix here. I really am trying to stay away from debutantes so at the minute it looks like It will be my next tracker Dark Swansong who will carry my hard earned cash if the price allows. The Dark Angel colt is trained by Clive Cox and bought for 100,000 gns at the October yearling Sales. Dark Swansong was unfancied when making his debut at Newbury in July when going off 10/1 and was certainly too green to challenge the leaders when finishing fourth but staying on at the finish. I can see an improved effort here and will need to be with a few nice types entered. An each price and I will be on. Clive doesn’t have the best record here which is a worry. A couple more trackers worth looking out for: 

17:35 Salisbury 24 Aug 2021 

This is another tough one but I will have a speculative bet on the Gary Moore trained Breezy Storm who out ran her odds at Goodwood last month when finishing sixth at 80/1, tough one so will keep it small. 

13:30 Yarmouth 24 Aug 2021 

Delphinus could be a nice one for John Gosden but I Imagine short for her debut here. 

Good luck and thanks for reading.

Friday, 20 August 2021

Saturday's Racing Info (21st August)

In my last post I mentioned quite a few trackers so I would have been pretty disappointed if I didn’t get one winner. 

The first horse I mentioned was the Joseph O’Brien trained Snaffles. If I’m honest, it was a bitter pill to swallow. If you are a regular reader of the posts, you know I am not to keen betting on debutantes. However, this Churchill colt is held in high regard by Joseph and the 5/1 the night before was tempting. Anyway, I had an each-way bet. I thought Snaffles was going nowhere until sprouting wings and finishing with plenty left in the tank - but could only manage fifth. 

One to get on early I think next timeout. 

Kindness ran a better race but outside the places too, a few of the others stayed in the trackers and hopefully will get a win next timeout. 

Last but not least was the Karl Burke trained SNOOZE N YOU LOSE who was a 20/1 shot the night before, I took the 20s and the rest is history as the Ribchester filly held on to beat the favourite Serenity by a length. 

I was well pleased with that and even went in again at 12s when I saw the money coming, you have to love a Karl Burke second time out runner when seriously backed. 

13:10 Chester 21 Aug 2021 

This looks a tricky little race especially at Chester. I can never seem to get a winner here. I have two trackers, Shouldavbeenmore who will be popular in the betting and the other tracker is INVIGILATE for Sir Michael Stoute. The Acclamation filly comes from a nice family including her full brother Expert Eye, also trained by Sir Michael. Expert Eye won the Vintage Stakes as a 2-year-old and went onto bigger and better things including the Breeders Cup Mile in his final race of his career. 

How far Invigilate will go is anyone's guess but hopefully this will be the start of her successful career. She made her debut in a hot race at Newmarket, back in July when not fancied in the betting and going off a 10/1 shot that day. I think it was a nice introduction and she should come on for the run. Plenty of winners have come out of that race so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Invigilate win. Karl Burke does send one here and the second timeout runner Giria should be watched in the market for support. 

16:55 Curragh (IRE) 21 Aug 2021 

Two trackers here. It looks hard to separate the two well regarded colts - who both ran with promise on their debuts. CRAIC AT DAWN is a Dawn Approach colt owned by Mrs J S Bolger and trained by Jim. Craic At Dawn was sent off a 20/1 shot on debut and out ran those odds when finishing third over seven furlongs here two weeks ago. The winner that day was Cowboy Justice who is another who is well-thought of. 

Aidan O’Brien seems to have had a fair bit of stick on social media about his 2-year-olds this season. 

One who I hope will be a future star is the War Front colt HMS ENDEAVOUR who took a bit of a drift on his debut from 5/2 out to 9/2 and ran if in need of the experience when third to Recurrent Dream who was soundly beaten in a hot contest next time out. I hope we see an improved performance today and HMS ENDEAVOUR can go onto better things. The market should be a clue to his chances. Any drift would be a negative. Incidentally, the top class St Mark’s Basilica won here last season. Hard to choose but if I can get each-way on HMS ENDEAVOURS I will take my chance. 

19:20 Lingfield 21 Aug 2021

LOVES ME LIKEAROCK is a well-thought of filly trained by Charlie Hills and takes on a few colts here. Should come on for debut but probably a short price here. 

Good luck and thanks for reading.

1:30 Kempton Racing Tips (20th August)

Fillies' Novice Stakes over 1m on standard to slow going. 

John Gosden's Frankel filly, Natasha, will be all the rage here. This home bred in the familiar silks of George Strawbridge ran well on debut, recovering after a slow start, only to be beaten by Speak, trained by Andrew Balding, in the same ownership of Strawbridge. With valuable form, over course and distance, this chestnut filly has leading claims although no price. 

Moon Island has a win penalty, negated, perhaps, by Saffie Osborne's 5lb claim. That didn't look the strongest of races so it will be interesting to see how she goes today. 

Charlie Appleby's National Dance has shown an element of ability and not without some hope although looked a little awkward in the closing stages. 

I've got my eye on William Muir's Making Music. The trainer can go well on debut although very hit and miss. August is a better month for the stable debutantes and the Fillies' Mile Group entry gives some hope of ability. If this filly is priced 14/1 - 16/1 SP, I would consider this an indicator to a live chance. 

Conclusion: A hurried post and not a great deal of info. I would be looking at Natasha and Making Music. The favourite is respected but too short price for my liking. Making Music is there with a hope at a price. However, from my experience, Muir's debutantes either win or unplaced. That details they are either classy horses that win or the average which don't. I don't think I'd be rushing out to bet on this filly but would be intrigued to see if she starts the race in the best betting guide as that would add to expectations.

Author: Jason Coote