Weekly 2- Old-Eye-Catchers (Monday 19th-Sunday 25th August)

17:25 Yarmouth 20 Aug 2019: 

Pocket Square was given a nice introduction at Yarmouth on Tuesday. This homebred Night Of Thunder Roger Charlton filly was well-supported on debut and despite finishing third in the six runner race I was impressed by how she handled herself. Pocket Square looked professional from the start with Jason Watson giving her a crack of the whip a couple of furlongs out, she couldn’t quite match the pace of the winner but was getting the hang of things late on. I guess after a pleasing debut she won't be much of a price next start but I will be hoping she can improve and get her first win. 

14:15 Bath 21 Aug 2019: 

Tommy Rock looks a 2-year-old to follow after a pleasing debut in the Sounds Commercial Bristol Maiden Stakes at Bath on Wednesday. The Clive Cox trained Society Rock colt is owned by Mr Peter Ridgers and was purchased for 100,000 euros as a yearling in the October sales last year. The fact that this grey colt was drawn wide on debut made life a little more difficult, having said that he will have learnt plenty from his first run. Tommy Rock was tapped for toe early on before getting the hang of things later on. The eventual winner Brad The Brief had already flown before Tommy Rock had got into top gear. We will see a much better performance next time out and Tommy Rock will benefit with a step up in distance. I would go as far as saying the 2/1 favourite was the best horse in the race and a win is just around the corner. 

14:05 Carlisle 21 Aug 2019: 

I could be barking up the wrong tree with this 2-year-old to follow but Dandy’s Angel made a pleasing debut at Carlisle this week. I know trainer John Wainwright isn't the most fashionable 2-year-old trainer, in fact, I can't find the last time he actually had a 2-year-old winner, to be honest, but this Dandy Man filly was bought for 20,000 gns this year and despite being way behind early on jockey Sean Davis got a great tune out of her and from being a country mile behind she stayed on quite nicely to finish third behind Deb’s Delight. It wasn't the best race but I am sure she can get her head in front soon and win a small race for owner Mr Anthony Ross. 

14:05 Newmarket 23 Aug 2019: 

Not sure how good the form of the C J Murfitt Ltd Fillies' Novice Stakes race is but the one I will be putting in my trackers is the David Simcock trained Broadbeach. The 60,000 gns Dandy Man filly ran a cracker on her debut. Hayley Turner gave her a peach of a ride and it was only the last furlong Broadbeach began to wander a bit. The 33/1 shot will have learned a lot from that debut and will be looking to get her first win on the board next timeout. 

15:15 Newmarket 23 Aug 2019: 

Am guessing Never Alone will be odds on next start after a promising first run. This was an impressive debut in what looked like a hot little contest. It was all about the other Charlie Appleby colt Royal Crusade here who looks top class after a tidy win but the 1,200,000 gns Dubawi colt Never Alone was staying on at the finish and will be winning races soon enough. 

16:15 York 23 Aug 2019: 

You know most of the horses entered in the Convivial Maiden Stakes race will be decent. The price that the Tom Dascome colt Pot Of Paint was huge. The 66/1 shot was kept at the back by Richard Kingscote before he weaved his way through beaten horses to finish strongly into fourth place. That was an excellent run considering he was at the back until a few furlongs out and the form of the winner looks rock solid. Definitely, one who should pick up a race in the near future. Thanks for reading and look out for my next 2-year-olds to follow

19.15 Kempton Preview (Plus Reviews) (10th July)

Before I start if you’re suffering from depression or feeling suicidal you should click on Hugh Taylor's page because this post could tip you over the edge. 

''What the bloody hell happened to my tracker Ecclesiastical?'' 

I was feeling pretty confident of a place at least given he had been well-supported into 3/1 at the off. Ecclesiastical made a better start this time and was up with the pace for most of the way before weakening the final furlong, maybe he needs to strength up or could be just average at best. Richard Hughes has banged a few 2-year-old winners in of late so the warning signs were there, first, it was Twice as Likely and then Aussie Showstopper and now Old News. 

As frustrated as I am about my last few trackers and bets the one positive I can take out of it is that they have all attracted support and hopefully I can get back to winning ways as soon as possible. 

Timeform Early Declaration Alert With Preview: 

19:15 Kempton 10 Jul 2019: 

Graceful Magic 
Airbrush 
Hot Touch 

15:10 Carlisle 11 Jul 2019: 

Alabama Whitman 

19:15 Kempton 10 Jul 2019. 

Twelve declared for this Novice Fillies Stakes race with £5,822 for the winner. 

Three Horses of note here in what looks a nice race at Kempton. 

Graceful Magic was a 33/1 surprise winner for Eve Johnson Houghton on her debut at Sandown in May. She was then given her chance in the Group 1 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and sent off a 100/1 shot. Graceful Magic was never in with a shout that day and will be more at home in this company but has to shoulder a win penalty against a few unexposed fillies and potentially nice newcomers. 0/9 with 2-year-olds in the past four years at Kempton. 

Airbrush wouldn't be one of Richard Hannon's best 2-year-olds but made a bold show to make all in a Newmarket maiden last month until tiring the last furlong. The impressive winner that day Ultra Violet has an early entry in a Group 2 at Newmarket this week. Airbrush was entered in a Class 2 race at Newmarket this week but takes her chance in this lower grade. 

Allez Sophia is another filly for Eve Johnson Houghton. This Kingman homebred filly has run well-enough on her two starts to date and should put up another bold show. 

Breath of Joy is a newcomer for the Amy Murphy stable. Quite an expensive purchase and with De Sousa on board I will be watching the market with interest. 

Clegane is a newcomer for Ed Walker. Market check needed on debut. 0/2 with 2-year-olds this season. 

Havana Princess is a 10,000 gns purchase for Dr J D Scargill. 

Hot Touch looks a nice type for Hugo Palmer. Made a promising start to her career when beaten by Havana Dawn at Thirsk. This 100,000 euro purchase was entered to run in a Class 2 race at Newmarket but takes her opportunity here instead. Form of debut race doesn't look strong but remains with potential. 

Miarka for Harry Dunlop and owner Susan Roy who has some nice horses in training most notably Charlie Hills trained Garrus. Would have to be a nice filly to be involved here and market check needed. 

Oribi ran in the same race as Airbrush at Newmarket. Would need a significant improvement for this W J Haggas filly to be involved here. 

Predictable Tully for Clive Cox. As always Clive has great record with 2-year-olds and this season hasn't been any different. Seven winners out of eighteen runners with four winning on debut in 2019 is a great stat for any trainer. Having said that Predictable Tully would have to be well-supported to stand any chance here also Clive Cox’s 2-year-old win record in Maiden and Novice races at Kempton the past four seasons reads 0/28. 

Silent Agenda Is a 175,000 gns purchase for owners Clipper Logistics and trained by the unstoppable Archie Watson. After a promising debut she disappointed on her second start at Brighton. If, supported in the betting may stand a chance but I would take a watching brief with her. 

Tambourine Girl is last but not least for Roger Charlton. Pleasing enough debut when a 7/1 chance at Windsor to Knight Shield. 

Looks to have a decent chance after a nice debut run.

Conclusion: A tough race to be confident. Tambourine Girl and Hot Touch are strong in the market at the time of writing, I will wait for the betting to settle and if Airbrush doesn't drift I might have a small each way. Good luck and thanks for reading.

Brilliant Rayong Keeps the Purple Patch Going

It doesn't happen very often but when it does you have to enjoy the moment. It’s a great feeling getting a few winners under your belt and your confidence is high, I know it probably won't last long and I have probably put the kiss of death on my good run but this season I had a few nice doubled priced winners and to be honest, I don’t feel like I'm doing anything different from last year. A few of my trackers have come up trumps with a couple of 14/1 winners and an 11/1 winner already. I guess this season I have tried to be a bit more patient and few times trust my instinct which leads me on nicely to my betting reviews. 

Bet Reviews:

In Saturday's post I mentioned a few trackers I had running, well, in fact, three in the same race which is always a dilemma, so the one that stood out was Misty Grey who Mark Johnston had given an early entry in the Class 2 Lily Agnes race at Chester but didn't run him. I looked back at his last race, he was up with the pace until tiring and eased down. An early morning price of 14/1 did not fill me with confidence and also no sign of a market move, so I just trusted my instinct and put my each way bet on. I also done a win bet on Oso Rapido for the O’Meara yard who’s juveniles have been running well this season. 

To be honest, Misty Grey had the race won two furlongs out when leading from start to finish to win by an impressive 7-lengths. I will also be looking out for Oso Rapido who was well-backed and ran a race full of promise. 

On to Monday and I mentioned three horses on my Twitter feed that I liked the look of, first up was a horse called Rayong for one of my favourite trainers and jockey combinations, this is what I wrote on one of my profitable courses for flat jockeys post way back in March (When I think of Ben Curtis I always think of Carlisle racecourse so it’s no surprise to see it’s a profitable racecourse for him, so over the past three years in maiden and novice races only, see him have 31 rides and winning 14 with an impressive 45.2 percent win strike rate and an even more impressive 341.6 per cent win return at starting price, look out for Ben Curtis riding for trainer Karl Burke). 

I put my bet on Rayong the night before and took 7/2 which he actually ended up after opening up at 9/2. This Mayson colt is owned by the powerful King Power Racing team who have transformed racing of late by buying lots of quality horses. Watching the race, Rayong looked professional from the off, broke well and tanked along before Ben Curtis took it up a furlong out before staying on well, he looks a nice recruit to the Karl Burke yard and should come on a lot after a great debut. 

Next up was Mark Johnston trained Rose of Kildare at Redcar who ran in a Class 2 race at Chester and brought some good form to the table, she won easy enough at 6/5 and another winner in the bag. Last up was a tracker from last year, the Clive Cox-trained Eligible who had a Group 2 Champagne Stakes entry as a 2-year-old but never ran. I noticed he had been gelded and took a gamble and done a each way bet at 20/1 and was pleasantly surprised to see him backed into 8/1. I think he ran a great race to finish a close third and looking like he could win at one stage, I will keep an eye on him for next time. 

The One That Got Away 

I caused a bit of a stir on social media a couple of weeks back when my post about the brilliant Aidan O’Brien stringing us along, and to be honest, I had a good chat with a few people who thought the headline was unfair, and I was told he doesn't have second or third strings, I take that on board but looking at the stats I said I would follow his less-fancied 2-year-old horses in Group races, well I bloody missed one as I didn’t even check the Irish racing on Sunday and surprise surprise Etoile the less fancied of the O’Brien pair won at 12/1, gutted as it would have been a great start. 

Timeform Early Declaration Alert

2.00 Ayr 22 May 2019: Fred had an early entry for a Class 2 race at York but never ran. 

2.00 Ayr 22 May 2019: Lord Of The Lodge had two early Class 2 entries, one at York and one at Chester. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

If you ever have any questions email me at craignewton175@gmail.com.

Profitable Courses for Flat Jockeys (Part 1)

Before the 2019 flat season gets going it's worth getting your ammunition ready, so after finishing my trainer profile series, it’s time to find some profitable jockeys. Italian jockey Andrea Atzeni in my view is one of the best jockeys around, who has won many big races and is currently stable jockey for Roger Varian. Salisbury is a course with a nice profit, so over the past three years with three-year-old horses and over, he had 15 rides with 7 winning, giving a 46.7 per cent win strike rate and 282.7 per cent win return at starting price.

Am not really one for betting on handicap races as it just baffles me but if I can find a statistic with profit that will do for me, so the next jockey on the list is Charles Bishop. I would say he’s improved so much in recent years and by following him over the past three years in handicap races at Epsom it would give you a tidy profit. The statistics back this up, 15 rides with 9 wins, giving a 60.0 per cent win strike rate and 212.6 per cent win return at starting price on three-year-old and over horses.

2016 champion jockey Jim Crowley is another great jockey who has popped up on my radar, he loves nothing more than a few winners at Nottingham. Taking a quick look at the statistics he seems pretty consistent each year, so let's have a look at the profit over the past three years. I have narrowed it down. handicap and novice races only, any age or distance would have seen him have 59 rides with 22 winners giving a 37.3 per cent win strike rate and a nice 239.3 per cent win return at starting price.

I had a feeling this jockey and course would be on my list even before I looked at the statistics. When I think of Ben Curtis (pictured) I always think of Carlisle racecourse so it’s no surprise to see it’s a profitable racecourse for him, so over the past three years in maiden and novice races only, see him have 31 rides and winning 14 with an impressive 45.2 per cent win strike rate and an even more impressive 341.6 per cent win return at starting price, look out for Ben Curtis riding for trainer Karl Burke. 

James Doyle is a jockey that oozes class and when you back one of his horses you know he will give his best shot, last seasons strike rate at Wolverhampton was unbelievable with 14 wins out of 20 rides over all distances, race types and age of horses with a 70.0 per cent win strike rate and a 241.3 per cent win return at starting price. It will be interesting to see if he can do it again this season but I will be checking the results. As always, there are no guaranteed winners but a few pointers in the right direction.

Good luck and look out for my next Profitable courses for flat jockeys
(part 2).