Even though it’s only May the trainer who’s really impressed me with his 2-year-old horses compared to recent seasons is David O Meara, yes I can talk about Archie Watson or Richard Fahey banging in the winners but looking at past seasons David’s statistics didn’t read to well, in 2017 he had only one winner out of eleven runs and 2018 was even worse with one win out of fifteen runs.2019 has seen a dramatic improvement with six wins out of fourteen runs giving him a 42.9 percent strike rate and whopping 394.6 percent win return at starting price.
Full Authority (pictured) looks a serious Kingman colt who was well-fancied on his debut at Chester and powered away to win by six-lengths, am also looking forward to seeing Great Dame, Infinite Grace and Ruby Wonder run again in the future. The future looks bright for David O’Meara and good luck to him for the rest of the season.
After a couple of winners on my trackers last week it was back down to earth with a bang this week but I still take a few positives from a couple and will keep an eye out for the next time out.
Birkenhead wasn’t a bet for me but ran his usual honest race and was placed again.
Ocasio Cortez was also a no bet after drifting to 10/1 and even though it looked a decent race she looks no world beater.
I did have a small win bet on Richard Hannon’s first time out Endowed, I took 6/1 early on and this son of Dark Angel was well-backed into 11/4 second-favourite, which was a positive move but weakened inside the final furlong. At first glance, it may seem disappointing but the fact that he was entered to run in a Class 2 also the fact he was well-supported gives me some encouragement and I will be keen to see if he’s supported again on his next run.
Ohio State was steady at 11/8 for most of the day, so was no bet for me and his run was too bad to be true and dropped away tamely, I will be interested to see the market next run.
Harpocrates drifted from 2/1 to 7/2 on the off which did worry me that he wasn't fully wound up, he did manage to finish second but was slowly away and ran green.I would imagine this son of Invincible Star will improve a lot and go onto better things down the line.
No luck with the Saturday Trixie again this week and not even a winner between us but I did manage a second with my selection Harpocrates.We need to have a good week this Saturday as it’s eating into my betting bank.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert
13 May 5.50 Windsor: Making History was a horse I marked down as S Bin Suroor’s first runner of the season even though he kept missing his engagements, made a favourite for his debut he wasn’t involved, no bet for me.
13 May 5.50 Windsor: Kemble had an early entry for a Class 2 race but never ran, fancied on debut and ran green, another no bet for me in what looks a difficult race.
14 May 3.00 Chepstow: Audio also had a Class 2 entry but never ran, looks disappointing after two starts and I will be watching to see if any improvement after an 81-day break.
14 May 1.50 Beverley: Richard R H B ran in the Brocklesby which normally shows the horse has some ability, I was worried when I didn’t back this tracker second-time out, and he put in a much-improved effort to finish third at 40/1, this looks a harder race and I will check the betting before I decide to bet or not.
14 May 2.20 Beverley: Exclusive from the all-conquering Archie Watson stable was entered in a Class 2 race at Chester last week but didn’t run, keen to see the market for this Kodiac filly before I decide to bet and as always it’s a gamble betting on debut runners but Archie seems to have them fit and ready from the start.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
As the saying goes you wait forever for one bus then two come along, well the same can be said about my winning trackers this week when I had an alert for both Threat (pictured) and Dylan De Vega. In my last post, I wrote how Threat was entered in a Class 2 race at Ascot last week but passed the opportunity in favour of running in the four runner Class 3 Maiden Stakes at Newmarket on Sunday.
I wasn’t going to have a bet on Sunday, to be honest, as I did a 22-mile training run in preparation for my up-and-coming marathon and couldn’t walk, but all the talk on Twitter about the 1000 Guineas gave me itchy feet and I miraculously felt good enough to walk to my local bookmakers. I had my eye on two for the Guineas, both Aidan O’Brien’s, but standing to wait for the off I still couldn’t decide and in hindsight, I should have done both but kept with my original selection Just Wonderful and, of course, the other O’Brien horse Hermosa made all and won impressively.
I don’t normally back 2-year-olds in a four-runner race especially a 14/1 shot, but after missing out on a 2-year-old last week that I fancied I wasn’t letting it happen again, so I had a win bet on the Richard Hannon trained Threat, and it was back home to watch the race. My wife must have a sixth sense because she’s in and out all day, upstairs, downstairs but of course that exact minute the race is off she decides to come in and want a full-blown conversation with me, am well on to this by now and it’s yes and a shake of the head while one eye on the television, sorted.
It’s been a quiet start for the Richard Hannon 2-year-olds this season with Temple Of Heaven the only one winning out of 14 runners at 11/4, so to expect a 14/1 debut winner against the experienced Electrical Storm and the Charlie Appleby newcomer Path of Thunder and to add to the mix the Balding outsider Spanish Angel. I wasn’t that confident, but a bit of market support for the Footstepinthesands colt give me some hope.
Threat broke smartly and looked professional from the off with Tom Marquand settling him in before taking it up two furlongs out and staying on to win by just over 2-lengths.
Get in!
Threat you little beauty.
Owners Cheveley Park Stud has a very nice colt on their hands here and looks like he could be heading to Royal Ascot, the Coventry Stakes could be the target and according to trainer Richard Hannon he will appreciate the step up to six furlongs.
It goes to show sometimes you have to take a punt whatever the price.
Other trackers Dylan De Vega was entered to run in a Class 2 at Chester this week but took what looked an easier option, a Class 5 Novice Median Auction Stakes race at Beverley. The Richard Fahey trained Poet’s Voice Colt won by 3-lengths and also looks a nice prospect. No bet for me at the price but nice to see another tracker win.
I did have another tracker Summer's Way but was a non-runner.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert. Not sure I can be as lucky as last week but I will be taking a closer look at these on Friday 10th May.
6.00 Ripon: Birkenhead has had a busy start to the season and finished sixth In the Brocklesby first time out, I doubt I will be back this Mick Channon-trained Colt.
10th May
6.40 Wolverhampton: Ocasio Cortez, entered in a Class 2 earlier in the season but didn’t run, I imagine will have to improve a bit to win in what looks a good field.
10th May
2.00 Ascot: Aroha For the Brian Meehan yard who was also entered for a Class 2 race but didn't run, actually ran a good race to finish fourth on debut despite running loose and also slowly away.
I will check the market before I decide if I am betting.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
18.45 Kempton Novice Stakes Class 5 (4 YO Plus)
Each night I look through the race meetings to see if anything catches my eye, and if nothing does, well I check the next few days meetings, normally the Novice or Maiden races are the ones I check, looking through the Kempton card I noticed what looks to be a nice 4 YO plus Novice Stakes race.
The betting suggests it’s a three horse race, with the Roger Varian trained Canvassed a warm favourite at the time of writing this, and rightly so after an easy victory on his debut at odds of 11/4, but he does have to shoulder a winning penalty for that victory which makes life a little more difficult. Ocala is another short price runner for the Andrew Balding yard who also looks to have a good chance.
The next horse is the one that caught my eye, Just Brilliant (pictured)was potentially Peter Chappel-Hyams best 2-year-old back in 2017, who has an excellent pedigree being a half brother to Group 1 Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel and was bought by owner Peter Makin for 150,000 guineas.
Just Brilliant was entered in the National Stakes(Group 1), Royal Lodge Stakes(Group 2), Dewhurst Stakes(Group 1) and the Vertem Futurity Stakes(Group 1), but for whatever reason he didn’t make the track until October 2017 at Newmarket, making a winning debut under a strong ride from Ryan Moore.
After a 194-day break he was pitched in at the deep end, the Newmarket Craven Stakes(Group3), a 25/1 shot and ridden by Jamie Spencer he was never involved against some serious rivals and for whatever reason that was his last race, and his promising future career seemed to have come to an abrupt end.
Am not sure how he will run today, and will also be hindered by top weight but the positive is the great man himself James Doyle hops on board. I will check the market myself to see if he's fancied but even if I don’t bet, I would love to see this one time potentially smart 2-year-old come back to life with a win against a couple of decent rivals.
Midweek review and preview:
I mentioned in my Brocklesby review the Mick Channon trained Birkenhead as one to look out for, and he was back out yesterday, just 3 days after finishing a creditable sixth in the Brocklesby, backed into favourite he could never strike a blow against the impressive Archie Watson winner Electric Ladyland.
I also mentioned on my twitter feed yesterday the Ralph Beckett trained Fragrant Belle who had a Class 2 entry last season, and although she finished 5/8 after being tapped for toe two furlongs out, she stayed on really strong and will appreciate a longer trip next time out.
If you looked at my recent trainer profile series on John Gosden you will have seen I mentioned his profitable record with 3-year-old horses running in maiden races in April, his first runner El Misk obliged at unbackable odds of 8/11 on Monday night.
Looking at the next few days he has Kosciuszko entered to run on Friday or Saturday and could be worth checking out. Thanks for reading and if you want to follow me on twitter just search for @craignewton175.
If you follow me on Twitter, you will know I have been waffling on about the Flat racing for a while now. Also, I have mentioned my love of 2-year-old racing. Hopefully, this year, working with my friend Jason Coote (jason@grouphorse.co.uk), we'll be giving the bookies a run for their money.
As it's still early season, and it takes a while to get going with the information we need, I will be writing about subjects that take my interest.
The Week Ahead:
The early declarations are out for the first Flat turf meeting of the 2019 season: the Unibet Lincoln Race Day taking place at Doncaster.
The Unibet Lincoln is the highlight of the day (but not for me as I will be taking a keen interest in the Brocklesby) but more on that later.
Looking back at the past running of the Doncaster Mile Stakes shows Roger Varian likes to target this race with some nice types, including 2018 winner Zabeel Prince and 2016 winner Belardo. This year Sharja Bridge has been given an early entry, so depending on price, could be a possible bet for me, especially as he likes the soft going which he proved by winning his last race at Ascot.
The Unibet Lincoln is a race that D O’Meara has done well. In the past two seasons, Lord Glitters finish second in 2018, and Bravery outrunning his odds to win the 2017 renewal at 20/1.
Humbert, who has changed stables from the Hugo Palmer yard, has seen some early support backed from 25/1 to 10/1. Waarif, who is owned by Middleham Park Racing who also run Ventura Knight, have a chance of winning the £62,250 prize.
Next race on the card (I have been waiting for what seems an age) is the Unibet Brocklesby Conditions Stakes for 2-year-olds. With no form guide, it’s a bit of a minefield. As with all unraced 2-year-old horses, it’s worth keeping an eye out on market movers. Even if they get beat this time, that bit of information could be gold dust worth noting when the horse makes its next start.
I have already written an article about past winners (detailing a few stats), but now the early declarations are in I see the same old trainers are ready to unleash a ''superstar''. I will mention a few horses entered for the Brocklesby Stakes.
Mick Channon won this race last year with Izzer, who was backed into 4/1. He fields Birkenhead and Sir Gordon.
Bill Turner normally runs his best two-year-old here. However, the last two years have proven disappointing. Both horses started at odds of 10/1. I will be checking the betting to see if Hell of a Joker is fancied or not.
Lexington Quest is another interesting runner for the Middleham Park Racing Syndicate, trained by R Hannon. If he runs, I imagine he will be fit and ready to go as most Hannon 2-year-olds are primed, especially if strong in the market.
Conclusion: This looks a decent Brocklesby with a few top trainers looking to win the £7,116 prize. I have only mentioned a select few. It’s always good to keep an eye on the market, especially as the winner of this race has been 4/1 and under the past four years.
Good luck with whoever you back, I might just watch and enjoy this one.
