Even though it’s only May the trainer who’s really impressed me with his 2-year-old horses compared to recent seasons is David O Meara, yes I can talk about Archie Watson or Richard Fahey banging in the winners but looking at past seasons David’s statistics didn’t read to well, in 2017 he had only one winner out of eleven runs and 2018 was even worse with one win out of fifteen runs.2019 has seen a dramatic improvement with six wins out of fourteen runs giving him a 42.9 percent strike rate and whopping 394.6 percent win return at starting price.
Full Authority (pictured) looks a serious Kingman colt who was well-fancied on his debut at Chester and powered away to win by six-lengths, am also looking forward to seeing Great Dame, Infinite Grace and Ruby Wonder run again in the future. The future looks bright for David O’Meara and good luck to him for the rest of the season.
After a couple of winners on my trackers last week it was back down to earth with a bang this week but I still take a few positives from a couple and will keep an eye out for the next time out.
Birkenhead wasn’t a bet for me but ran his usual honest race and was placed again.
Ocasio Cortez was also a no bet after drifting to 10/1 and even though it looked a decent race she looks no world beater.
I did have a small win bet on Richard Hannon’s first time out Endowed, I took 6/1 early on and this son of Dark Angel was well-backed into 11/4 second-favourite, which was a positive move but weakened inside the final furlong. At first glance, it may seem disappointing but the fact that he was entered to run in a Class 2 also the fact he was well-supported gives me some encouragement and I will be keen to see if he’s supported again on his next run.
Ohio State was steady at 11/8 for most of the day, so was no bet for me and his run was too bad to be true and dropped away tamely, I will be interested to see the market next run.
Harpocrates drifted from 2/1 to 7/2 on the off which did worry me that he wasn't fully wound up, he did manage to finish second but was slowly away and ran green.I would imagine this son of Invincible Star will improve a lot and go onto better things down the line.
No luck with the Saturday Trixie again this week and not even a winner between us but I did manage a second with my selection Harpocrates.We need to have a good week this Saturday as it’s eating into my betting bank.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert
13 May 5.50 Windsor: Making History was a horse I marked down as S Bin Suroor’s first runner of the season even though he kept missing his engagements, made a favourite for his debut he wasn’t involved, no bet for me.
13 May 5.50 Windsor: Kemble had an early entry for a Class 2 race but never ran, fancied on debut and ran green, another no bet for me in what looks a difficult race.
14 May 3.00 Chepstow: Audio also had a Class 2 entry but never ran, looks disappointing after two starts and I will be watching to see if any improvement after an 81-day break.
14 May 1.50 Beverley: Richard R H B ran in the Brocklesby which normally shows the horse has some ability, I was worried when I didn’t back this tracker second-time out, and he put in a much-improved effort to finish third at 40/1, this looks a harder race and I will check the betting before I decide to bet or not.
14 May 2.20 Beverley: Exclusive from the all-conquering Archie Watson stable was entered in a Class 2 race at Chester last week but didn’t run, keen to see the market for this Kodiac filly before I decide to bet and as always it’s a gamble betting on debut runners but Archie seems to have them fit and ready from the start.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
When I was a given this opportunity by Jason to write a blog I was a bit worried at first on what I could write about as am not really a racing tipster, so all I do is just put my thoughts down about my bets and any interesting horses I see coming up.
When I scan through the race cards each night, mainly Novice or Maiden races, I look for any interesting horses that I could write about on my blog, they may not win the first time or ever win but then again they could be a star of the future.
The race that caught my eye was the:
6.35 Castle Beauty Maiden Stakes at Nottingham for three-year-olds only, and I was drawn to a particular colour, Black and white(halved), sleeves reversed, red cap, you probably already know are worn by the mighty Cracksman (pictured).
If First in Line is half as good as Cracksman he will be in for a great season. This New Approach colt is owned by Mr A E Oppenheimer and bred by Hascombe and Valiant Studs, It's a great set up that have produced some nice horses and is worth a second glance when John Gosden's training them. This Chestnut colt is related to several winners including Dawn Horizons and Our Obsession and has an entry for the Derby so I will be hoping this is a stepping stone to bigger and better things.
On the same card Making History finally makes his debut after being entered for plenty of races but not declared, with Hayley Turner in the hot seat I am looking forward to seeing if this Dubawi Colt has been worth waiting for.
Bets Review: With the Craven meeting this week I had a few bets, even though I was in work I managed to watch a few races on my phone. My first bet of the week was the one I wrote about on my blog, I had checked the statistics for the Nell Gwyn Stakes and seen John Gosden had a great record in the race, so I opted for a few quid on Angel’s Hideaway. I thought she ran a great race considering she dwelt in the stalls, not sure she would have beat the impressive Qabala but would have made it a lot closer.
I also had a small bet on Alandalos for the Charlie Hill stable who disappointed, to be honest.
Next one was my biggest bet which I thought would be a definite winner, I had written about Franz Kafka before in a previous blog and how he was entered in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes as a 2-year-old but never ran, so I was convinced he would win, to be honest, he ran a great race, and he was so close to getting up on the line, with Far Above just holding on for a great debut run. I wouldn’t give up just yet on Franz Kafka, I will be hoping he could go on to better things this season but time will tell.
Good luck this weekend and thanks for reading.
You know the flat season is well and truly underway when trackers start coming through for the first big meeting of the season.
Newmarket kicks off next week with some cracking racing, first off we have the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes on Tuesday, followed by the Group 3 Craven Stakes on Wednesday (Can’t believe I will be in work for both).
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves though, if we look at Friday's meeting at Newbury there is also what looks to be a few decent races and I will be taking a keen interest in what I think could be a potentially nice horse, will she win on Friday? Well, that's a different story, but I hope my trackers can at least show a bit of promise.
2.00 West Berkshire Brewery ‘ Newcomers’ EBF Maiden Stakes.
This looks a 2-year old race full of potential here but I will just mention my trackers. As you may know *Making History was entered for £3.752 race at Windsor on Monday but bypassed that to run here, I always make a note of S Bin Suroor first few runners of the season, as over the years they are normally of a high standard and Making History could be another to add to the collection, this Godolphin bred Dubawi colt will be hoping to pick up the £6.469 prize money, the negative is the trainer doesn’t have the best record here, so I will be keeping an eye on the market.
Barry Magoo is my next one for trainer Adam West, now the positive here is that this 2-year-old colt had an entry for the Brocklesby at one time, but the negative is he didn’t have a 2-year-old winner last season. Now the next one I know nothing about, only he’s trained by Clive Cox, but with a name like Klopp Of The Kopp he’s a winner already.
5.50 Coin Valley Stud Bridget Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
This looks a great race, but the horse I've been waiting for a while for is Farnham, it has seemed an age since I got an email last year off Group Horse noting this bay Filly by Farhh as a dark horse to look out for, owned by Clipper Logistics and trained by Roger Varian, she was bought at the Tattersall Sales for 110,000 gns.
Why have I been looking forward to seeing her run? Last season she was potentially one of the better 2-year-olds in the Varian yard with a host of Group entries including the Group 2 Lowther Stakes, the Fillies’ Mile Stakes(Group 1) and the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes.
I do wonder why Roger Didn’t run her in any, could be many reasons but hopefully, she has strengthened up over the winter and can fulfil her potential.
Also, looking through the stats of sire Farhh, I would think Farnham will act on the forecast soft ground.
So, two nice races coming up with some potentially good horses on show, but as always I will be checking the market before I think about having a bet.
Betting Review:
Just a quick update on my bets this week. Well, I got a tip from Sam (@sdyates85) on Sunday and while picking the kids Grand National winnings up thought I would have a bet on his tip, Oh my word Gone Platinum scooted home by 4 lengths, probably the easiest winner I have had for a while (thanks mate). Next was Lexington Quest who I had as a tracker and to be honest wasn’t going to bet but the discipline went out the window again and Lexi ran in snatches and disappointed, but I will keep him in my trackers for another day, hopefully, he can improve next time out.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week if you have a bet.
*Making History None Runner.
Photo: Deep Intrigue owned by Clipper Logistics
14.50 Windsor 08 April 2019 EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5) (2YO)
This looks a decent 2-year-old Novice event, with what looks like some nice types taking part, twelve horse go to post. I wrote this when the early entries were declared and will keep it the same so I can look back on it if I need information for future races. I will mention a few that stand out.
The first I will mention is Richard Hannon's first 2-year-old of the season Lexington Quest who’s out of first season sire Ivawood and owned by Middleham Park Racing, he cost £32.000 as a yearling and was down to run in the Brocklesby. Richard Hannon hasn’t got the best record in this race with no winners in the last four seasons, but not a bad record with 2-year-olds at Windsor, which sees him with a 29 per cent winning strike rate over the past four seasons with horses 10/1 and under.
Mark Johnston runs Gobi Sunset, with Franny Norton taking the ride on this Oasis Dream colt, I remember this race last year when he ran Blown by the Wind who reared up in the stalls and blew the start(no pun intended)before winning impressively at odds of 2/1. I will be interested to see if Gobi Sunset gets out the stalls quick, as looking back over the last four seasons Marks horses have all been slowly away, but saying that he has a great record with his 2-year-olds at Windsor, with an impressive 53 per cent win strike rate with horses 15/2 and under in non handicap races.
I always make a note of S Bin Suroor's first few runners of the season, as over the years they are normally of a high standard and *Making History could be another to add to the collection, this Godolphin bred Dubawi colt could make it another winner at a course where the trainer likes to send his better horses, bearing in mind he’s only sent six horses here over the past four seasons, he has a 50 per cent win strike rate with the three winners all being shorted priced favourites.
Royal Ambition will be Clive Cox first 2-year-old runner of the season and have noted before that his first few horses are definitely worth checking out. He has a decent strike rate at Windsor(38 per cent win strike rate), so this chestnut colt could be worth a market check.
Can Dorchester Dom give the Brocklesby another form boost? After stablemate Zulu Zander eased to victory at Leicester on Monday. This P D Evans trained Starspangledbanner colt ran a great race in the Brocklesby to finish fourth at odds of 33/1 and should be a lot wiser this time out. Evans has a terrible record at Windsor with his 2-year-olds, over the past four seasons he has an 8 per cent win strike rate but has run a few decent sorts at this meeting with Awesome Allen winning in 2016.
Conclusion:
Difficult race to access with all but one making their first trip to a racecourse, am sure Dorchester Dom will come on a ton for his Brocklesby run. I really hope Lexington Quest can give the Middleham Park Racing owners a winner, but if the money comes in for Making History I will be taking note. I will check the market before I decide to have a bet or not.
Reviews:
Just a couple of bets for me last week, in my last post I mentioned a horse called Just Brilliant, who was Peter Chappel Hyams best 2-year-old in 2017, so I had a small win bet on him, but he was well put in his place by the impressive odds on winner Canvassed, who I think will go places this season. I also had the normal bet on my dinner break in work, Queen's horse Regular was my bet but just got run down on the line, so another placed effort for me, and next up I did Canardier, my Twitter mate Sam's tip for the Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle at Aintree, which was also placed but I defo got a run for my money again. No luck for me this week, thanks for reading and if you had better luck leave me a comment I would love to hear what it's like to win these days.
* Making History (Non runner)
