Even though it’s only May the trainer who’s really impressed me with his 2-year-old horses compared to recent seasons is David O Meara, yes I can talk about Archie Watson or Richard Fahey banging in the winners but looking at past seasons David’s statistics didn’t read to well, in 2017 he had only one winner out of eleven runs and 2018 was even worse with one win out of fifteen runs.2019 has seen a dramatic improvement with six wins out of fourteen runs giving him a 42.9 percent strike rate and whopping 394.6 percent win return at starting price.
Full Authority (pictured) looks a serious Kingman colt who was well-fancied on his debut at Chester and powered away to win by six-lengths, am also looking forward to seeing Great Dame, Infinite Grace and Ruby Wonder run again in the future. The future looks bright for David O’Meara and good luck to him for the rest of the season.
After a couple of winners on my trackers last week it was back down to earth with a bang this week but I still take a few positives from a couple and will keep an eye out for the next time out.
Birkenhead wasn’t a bet for me but ran his usual honest race and was placed again.
Ocasio Cortez was also a no bet after drifting to 10/1 and even though it looked a decent race she looks no world beater.
I did have a small win bet on Richard Hannon’s first time out Endowed, I took 6/1 early on and this son of Dark Angel was well-backed into 11/4 second-favourite, which was a positive move but weakened inside the final furlong. At first glance, it may seem disappointing but the fact that he was entered to run in a Class 2 also the fact he was well-supported gives me some encouragement and I will be keen to see if he’s supported again on his next run.
Ohio State was steady at 11/8 for most of the day, so was no bet for me and his run was too bad to be true and dropped away tamely, I will be interested to see the market next run.
Harpocrates drifted from 2/1 to 7/2 on the off which did worry me that he wasn't fully wound up, he did manage to finish second but was slowly away and ran green.I would imagine this son of Invincible Star will improve a lot and go onto better things down the line.
No luck with the Saturday Trixie again this week and not even a winner between us but I did manage a second with my selection Harpocrates.We need to have a good week this Saturday as it’s eating into my betting bank.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert
13 May 5.50 Windsor: Making History was a horse I marked down as S Bin Suroor’s first runner of the season even though he kept missing his engagements, made a favourite for his debut he wasn’t involved, no bet for me.
13 May 5.50 Windsor: Kemble had an early entry for a Class 2 race but never ran, fancied on debut and ran green, another no bet for me in what looks a difficult race.
14 May 3.00 Chepstow: Audio also had a Class 2 entry but never ran, looks disappointing after two starts and I will be watching to see if any improvement after an 81-day break.
14 May 1.50 Beverley: Richard R H B ran in the Brocklesby which normally shows the horse has some ability, I was worried when I didn’t back this tracker second-time out, and he put in a much-improved effort to finish third at 40/1, this looks a harder race and I will check the betting before I decide to bet or not.
14 May 2.20 Beverley: Exclusive from the all-conquering Archie Watson stable was entered in a Class 2 race at Chester last week but didn’t run, keen to see the market for this Kodiac filly before I decide to bet and as always it’s a gamble betting on debut runners but Archie seems to have them fit and ready from the start.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
Watching the racing the last few weeks and seeing Magna Grecia winning the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and then Sir Dragonet win the Group 3 Chester Vase for Aidan O’Brien with his second or third string, it got me thinking what type of record he has with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle and if I could make a profit backing them this season. Having a good look through the stats it seems 2-year-old horses in Group races are the best bet to follow and I will be keeping a close eye on jockey bookings this season.
In 2017 Donnacha rode in fourteen Group races for Aidan O’Brien, winning five with an impressive 35.7 per cent win strike rate and 269.6 per cent win return at starting price.
First was the third string Magical who won a Group 2 race at Curragh at 11/1 with Ryan Moore on second-placed Happily. Nelson was next and the second string, who won a Group 3 Stakes at Leopardstown at 11/2 with Ryan Moore on the third-placed favourite Delano Roosevelt. Happily won the next day for Donnacha at odds of 13/2 in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at Curragh with Ryan Moore choosing second placed Magical this time.
Another Group 2 win followed in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, this time Donnacha was on Seahenge the 8/1 shot and Ryan finishing last on 9/1 Mendelssohn, for his last Group win of the year Donnacha was actually on the first string, 7/4 favourite Kenya at Leopardstown and won the Group 3 Stakes race with Ryan not riding.
2018 was another impressive year for Donnacha O’Brien with twenty rides this time, winning eight with a 40 per cent win strike rate and a 208.5 per cent win return at starting price. The first two wins came at Curragh when he was on the favourite Just Wonderful and later on Ten Sovereigns and both won easy but then back to a Group 2 Stakes race at Doncaster and Ryan Moore is on the first string again and finished second to last but Donnacha rides 12/1 shot Fleeting and wins easy.
Mohawk wins the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket at odds of 8/1 and Donnacha makes the right choice again. Fairyland was his next winner and again Donnacha makes the right call again where he held on to win by a neck in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes and makes it a treble on the day with Ten Sovereigns winning the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Sergei Prokofiev wins the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket and Magna Grecia finishes of the Aidan O’Brien and Donnacha O’Brien partnership in style with another Group win at Doncaster.
One To Watch
The Oaks trial at Lingfield looks a great race and am interested to see how the William Haggas trained Frankellina runs. This Frankel filly had an early entry in the Group 1 Fillies Mile race as a 2-year-old and the step up in trip should be right down her street.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert
11 May 4.35 Ascot: Endowed was entered in a Class 2 race at Ascot but never ran, currently 9/1 I will keep an eye on the market before I decide if I bet.
11 May 1.35 Naas: Ohio State was also entered in the Class 2 race at Ascot.
11 May 2.45 Nass: Harpocrates another entered in the Class 2 race at Ascot.
The Saturday Trixie: Week 3
Craig: 2.45 Nass - Harpocrates.Looking forward to seeing this Aidan O’Brien colt, by Invincible Spirit and has a similar profile to the 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia. Hopefully, he is fully wound up for his debut and with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle, I will be hoping he could go on to have a great career. Not much juice in the price(2/1) but hopefully gets me on the board.
Aaron: 3:10 Haydock - Christopher Wood. 2 from 3 over hurdles for the champion trainer, his only defeat coming in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree where he finished 3rd, was decent on the flat for Michael Bell, should be there or thereabouts and 8/1 is good e/w price
Sam: Haydock 2:00 - Serosevsky - The form of his last win has been franked and he could still well weighted even with a 10lb rise, which might not be enough to stop him. Adv 7/2
Good luck and thanks for reading.
