What a funny old weekend that was, first was 2/13 shot Calyx getting well and truly turned over by the progressive Kevin Ryan trained Hello Youmzain, who does look a nice horse, to be honest. I did hear the Haydock crowd booing Calyx which is totally unacceptable in my eyes if you're backing a 2/13 shot you have to be out of your mind.
The Irish 2,000 Guineas was won by the Charlie Hills-trained colt Phoenix of Spain, he lowered the colours of the two fancied runners Too Darn Hot and Magna Grecia. The 16/1 shot ran a superb race with Jamie Spencer giving a masterclass of a ride. People are talking like Too Darn Hot is passed it or hasn't trained on but come on two seconds in Group races this season is still pretty impressive to me.
Reviews:
I mentioned three trackers on Saturday and first up was the Charlie Appleby trained Silent Wave, this War Front filly was backed into 10/11 favourite after opening up evens favourite, it was a no bet for me at that price but was very impressive from the start and looked very professional in her work winning by just under 3-lengths. Betfair has quoted her 14/1 for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Endowed was my next tracker at Chester, I did have a small win bet on this Richard Hannon trained colt but the writing was on the wall a few furlongs out when Rossie Ryan was struggling to keep him straight, he looks a very awkward ride and that loser brought an end to my good run betting on 2-year-old horses.
I didn't have to wait too long till I was back in the game when my next bet War Storm (pictured) won well at York. I was in two minds whether to back this Archie Watson trained colt by Due Diligence because he was on the drift in the morning, but I bit the bullet and had an each way bet at 4/1, he was well-supported into 5/2 favourite on the off. War Storm broke well and was prominent throughout the race, I was a bit worried about the well-backed Johnston horse Makyon who wouldn't go away but War Storm ran on well to win by 2-lengths and could be another horse going to Royal Ascot.
The Saturday Trixie Review:
First up was Aarons bet, who to be honest has been in great form but I think he got a bit too big for his boots when he tried to pick the winner of 19 horse sprint Handicap(only messing mate haha) anyway El Astronaute finished midfield. Sams selection Canyon City tailed off but at least stayed on its feet. War Storm was my first win and hopefully, I can pull the gap back a bit more this weekend, so keep a look out on Saturday.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert:
14:40 Leicester 28 May 2019: Lincoln Blue had an entry for the Class 2 Newbury Conditions Stakes race but didn't run.
16:40 Leicester 28 May 2019: Javea Magic had an entry for a Class 2 race at the beginning of the month but didn't run.
14:20 Redcar 28 May 2019: Amnaa had an entry for Marygate Fillies Stakes(Listed) but didn’t run.
As always I would like to see some market support for trackers.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
Watching the racing the last few weeks and seeing Magna Grecia winning the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and then Sir Dragonet win the Group 3 Chester Vase for Aidan O’Brien with his second or third string, it got me thinking what type of record he has with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle and if I could make a profit backing them this season. Having a good look through the stats it seems 2-year-old horses in Group races are the best bet to follow and I will be keeping a close eye on jockey bookings this season.
In 2017 Donnacha rode in fourteen Group races for Aidan O’Brien, winning five with an impressive 35.7 per cent win strike rate and 269.6 per cent win return at starting price.
First was the third string Magical who won a Group 2 race at Curragh at 11/1 with Ryan Moore on second-placed Happily. Nelson was next and the second string, who won a Group 3 Stakes at Leopardstown at 11/2 with Ryan Moore on the third-placed favourite Delano Roosevelt. Happily won the next day for Donnacha at odds of 13/2 in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at Curragh with Ryan Moore choosing second placed Magical this time.
Another Group 2 win followed in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, this time Donnacha was on Seahenge the 8/1 shot and Ryan finishing last on 9/1 Mendelssohn, for his last Group win of the year Donnacha was actually on the first string, 7/4 favourite Kenya at Leopardstown and won the Group 3 Stakes race with Ryan not riding.
2018 was another impressive year for Donnacha O’Brien with twenty rides this time, winning eight with a 40 per cent win strike rate and a 208.5 per cent win return at starting price. The first two wins came at Curragh when he was on the favourite Just Wonderful and later on Ten Sovereigns and both won easy but then back to a Group 2 Stakes race at Doncaster and Ryan Moore is on the first string again and finished second to last but Donnacha rides 12/1 shot Fleeting and wins easy.
Mohawk wins the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket at odds of 8/1 and Donnacha makes the right choice again. Fairyland was his next winner and again Donnacha makes the right call again where he held on to win by a neck in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes and makes it a treble on the day with Ten Sovereigns winning the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Sergei Prokofiev wins the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket and Magna Grecia finishes of the Aidan O’Brien and Donnacha O’Brien partnership in style with another Group win at Doncaster.
One To Watch
The Oaks trial at Lingfield looks a great race and am interested to see how the William Haggas trained Frankellina runs. This Frankel filly had an early entry in the Group 1 Fillies Mile race as a 2-year-old and the step up in trip should be right down her street.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert
11 May 4.35 Ascot: Endowed was entered in a Class 2 race at Ascot but never ran, currently 9/1 I will keep an eye on the market before I decide if I bet.
11 May 1.35 Naas: Ohio State was also entered in the Class 2 race at Ascot.
11 May 2.45 Nass: Harpocrates another entered in the Class 2 race at Ascot.
The Saturday Trixie: Week 3
Craig: 2.45 Nass - Harpocrates.Looking forward to seeing this Aidan O’Brien colt, by Invincible Spirit and has a similar profile to the 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia. Hopefully, he is fully wound up for his debut and with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle, I will be hoping he could go on to have a great career. Not much juice in the price(2/1) but hopefully gets me on the board.
Aaron: 3:10 Haydock - Christopher Wood. 2 from 3 over hurdles for the champion trainer, his only defeat coming in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree where he finished 3rd, was decent on the flat for Michael Bell, should be there or thereabouts and 8/1 is good e/w price
Sam: Haydock 2:00 - Serosevsky - The form of his last win has been franked and he could still well weighted even with a 10lb rise, which might not be enough to stop him. Adv 7/2
Good luck and thanks for reading.
Reviews:
What a race, what a horse, what a trainer. As much as all of the social media chat crap about the draw bias at the end of the day the best horse won, but first I will make it short and sweet about my selection Al Hilalee. I thought I was in with a chance when I see he had been backed in from the early morning 16s to 8s at the off, but as the race unfolded William Buick was pushing away on him from the halfway stage and finished nearer last than first.
The winner Magna Grecia (Pictured) from the all-conquering A O’Brien stable looks a class act and am sure we haven't heard the last of this son of Invincible. Just a quick mention for the one and only Aidan O’Brien who has managed to win this race for an unbelievable tenth time, but overall I only had a small each way so not much damage was done.
I noted a couple of horses in the 4.20 at Goodwood and Qutob again failed to get his neck in front(actually got beat by a neck), the other was City Wanderer for the Mick Channon yard, I didn’t bet on him because when I looked early at the betting he was a 33/1 shot, so to my surprise when I looked at the results he ended up 8/1, even though he finished 5-lengths behind I will keep an eye out for his next run after that market move.
The One That Got Away
I do love 2-year-old racing and even though I have rarely bet so far this season I always check the races to see if any movers. Karl Burke is worth looking out for when his horses are gambled on the second timeout so I was keeping a close eye on Insania in Thirsk's opener and I watched as she was backed in from 5s to 3/1 second favourite, did I back her?
No, I decided to leave her alone and watch her win by just over 2-lengths. It summed up my day really.
The Saturday Trixie review: Week 2
Move over Hugh Taylor we have a new kid in town, well I wouldn’t go that far like but Aaron did the business again this week when Fusil Raffles won by nearly 3-lengths to give Aaron his second winner in a row, this was after both mine and Sam's selections disappointed again, we definitely need to raise our game next week.
Timeform Early Declaration Alert
As I only do a couple of posts a week I will put forward some of my early trackers, not saying I will back them this time or not but it’s worth checking them out at least.
5th May 4.10 Newmarket: Threat was entered in a Class 2 at Ascot but never ran, worth a market check.
6th May 1.55 Beverley: Dylan De Vega wasn’t fancied on debut but ran a good race to finish second, also had a Class 2 entry but never ran.
6th May 2.50 Bath: Summer's Way Class 2 entry.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
