Saturday 11 May 2019

How Aidan O'Brien Has Been Stringing Us Along For Years (Plus Previews & Tips)

Watching the racing the last few weeks and seeing Magna Grecia winning the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and then Sir Dragonet win the Group 3 Chester Vase for Aidan O’Brien with his second or third string, it got me thinking what type of record he has with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle and if I could make a profit backing them this season. Having a good look through the stats it seems 2-year-old horses in Group races are the best bet to follow and I will be keeping a close eye on jockey bookings this season.

In 2017 Donnacha rode in fourteen Group races for Aidan O’Brien, winning five with an impressive 35.7 per cent win strike rate and 269.6 per cent win return at starting price. First was the third string Magical who won a Group 2 race at Curragh at 11/1 with Ryan Moore on second-placed Happily. Nelson was next and the second string, who won a Group 3 Stakes at Leopardstown at 11/2 with Ryan Moore on the third-placed favourite Delano Roosevelt. Happily won the next day for Donnacha at odds of 13/2 in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes at Curragh with Ryan Moore choosing second placed Magical this time.

Another Group 2 win followed in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster, this time Donnacha was on Seahenge the 8/1 shot and Ryan finishing last on 9/1 Mendelssohn, for his last Group win of the year Donnacha was actually on the first string, 7/4 favourite Kenya at Leopardstown and won the Group 3 Stakes race with Ryan not riding.

2018 was another impressive year for Donnacha O’Brien with twenty rides this time, winning eight with a 40 per cent win strike rate and a 208.5 per cent win return at starting price. The first two wins came at Curragh when he was on the favourite Just Wonderful and later on Ten Sovereigns and both won easy but then back to a Group 2 Stakes race at Doncaster and Ryan Moore is on the first string again and finished second to last but Donnacha rides 12/1 shot Fleeting and wins easy.

Mohawk wins the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket at odds of 8/1 and Donnacha makes the right choice again. Fairyland was his next winner and again Donnacha makes the right call again where he held on to win by a neck in the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes and makes it a treble on the day with Ten Sovereigns winning the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes. Sergei Prokofiev wins the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes at Newmarket and Magna Grecia finishes of the Aidan O’Brien and Donnacha O’Brien partnership in style with another Group win at Doncaster.

One To Watch 

The Oaks trial at Lingfield looks a great race and am interested to see how the William Haggas trained Frankellina runs. This Frankel filly had an early entry in the Group 1 Fillies Mile race as a 2-year-old and the step up in trip should be right down her street.

Timeform Early Declaration Alert

11 May 4.35 Ascot: Endowed was entered in a Class 2 race at Ascot but never ran, currently 9/1 I will keep an eye on the market before I decide if I bet. 

11 May 1.35 Naas: Ohio State was also entered in the Class 2 race at Ascot. 

11 May 2.45 Nass: Harpocrates another entered in the Class 2 race at Ascot. 

The Saturday Trixie: Week 3 

Craig: 2.45 Nass - Harpocrates.Looking forward to seeing this Aidan O’Brien colt, by Invincible Spirit and has a similar profile to the 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia. Hopefully, he is fully wound up for his debut and with Donnacha O’Brien in the saddle, I will be hoping he could go on to have a great career. Not much juice in the price(2/1) but hopefully gets me on the board. 

Aaron: 3:10 Haydock - Christopher Wood. 2 from 3 over hurdles for the champion trainer, his only defeat coming in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at Aintree where he finished 3rd, was decent on the flat for Michael Bell, should be there or thereabouts and 8/1 is good e/w price  
Sam: Haydock 2:00 - Serosevsky - The form of his last win has been franked and he could still well weighted even with a 10lb rise, which might not be enough to stop him. Adv 7/2 Good luck and thanks for reading.

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