Wednesday 6 March 2019

Second Season Sires to Look Out for in 2019

Trying to find a money spinner can take a long time but hopefully, these statistics can at least make a small profit. I looked through the first season sires for the 2018 season to see if I can get any statistics to keep one step ahead for the 2019 season. 

It’s no surprise that No Nay Never leads the way in 2018 sires list with the superb Ten Sovereigns unbeaten, winning a Group 1 and 3 in his first season. I have had a good look at the statistics but can’t find much interest to make a profit. I found four very interesting sires to keep in mind in the following months, especially Charm Spirit. 

Australia has a few interesting statistics, if we look at the results of the sire’s progeny in 2018 it was a decent season but backing each horse would have left you a few quid down. As always we can narrow that down a bit so as the saying goes horses for courses. 

Kempton seems a course the fillies thrive on, with the slower all-weather surface being a hit. The offspring statistics read in 2018, 5 runners with 4 winning in maiden or novice races, giving an 80.0 per cent win strike rate with a 475.0 per cent win return at starting price, with two first time out winners and two second timeout winners. Beyond reason being his top performer with a rating of 107, let's hope it continues into the new Flat season. 

Kingman (pictured) offspring performed very well in two-year-old novice races last season in all types of ground and distances would have seen 30 runners with 11 wins giving a 36.7 win strike rate and 214.3 per cent win return at starting price. 

Sangarius looks an exciting prospect for the 2019 season, this Kingman colt already has a rating of 109 after finishing fourth to the mighty To Darn Hot in the Group 1 Dewhurst stakes in October. 

Charm Spirit is another sire worth following, the French-trained colt ran twice only as a two-year-old, before strengthening up over the winter and coming back even better. On his reappearance, he won the Group 3 Paul de Moussac, and better was to follow later in the season with three Group 1s in a row, highlight being a great win in Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes at Ascot. 

Charm Spirit seemed to enjoy the soft going but looking at the statistics of the offspring tells a different story so I will be concentrating on maiden races, good and good to firm going only and priced under 15/2. The profit looks good, with 20 runs and 9 wins giving a 45.0 per cent win strike rate and a 206.0 per cent win return at starting price with Yourtimeisnow, a useful prospect for the 2019 season. 

Kuroshio could be an outsider to pop out a winner or two, his progeny have been average but with 4 wins from 12 bets giving a 33.3 per cent win strike rate and a 142.7 per cent win return at starting price in novice company, it’s worth keeping an eye out for this Australian sprinter’s offspring in the months ahead. 

So, as always no guaranteed winners but enough statistics to help along the way.