Wednesday's 2yo Racing (11th August)

A bumper day of two-year-old races. 

It doesn't fill my heart with joy as I'm not keen on a busy day. However, that's what we have so I will simply mention a few horses of interest and next to no analysis. It's either one race with full analysis or a brief summary. 

1:30 Yarmouth - 

Brasil Power, held in some regard by George Boughey and in the familiar silks of powerful owner Amo Racing Limited. This £410,000 breeze-up purchase (where do these people get all their money from) should go well. 

1:55 Salisbury - 

Looking forward to seeing how Monitor goes today. I would be confident this colt has ability and held in some regard by the stable. However, this may be a tough contest with Poet ready to roll, Level Up showing an element of ability at Goodwood for Amanda Perrett (who doesn't have many juveniles) and even Kingofhell may have half a hope at giant odds. I am looking forward to Monitor though. 

2:30 Salisbury - 

Flying Secret, trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton is a potentially smart colt and would be of interest if touching each-way odds. 

2:50 Beverley - 

Thunder Legend must run a race here. Palmer doesn't send many two-year-olds to Beverley but when he does they usually go well. 

Good luck to connections. 

Author: Jason Coote

2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips (5th August)

I really should have a day at Yarmouth. 

A 6f (6f3y) British Stallion Stud EBF Novices Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 4) (2yo) on good going. 

A fascinating race. 

Dig Two is probably the best two-year-old we have seen enjoying the sea air at Great Yarmouth. With the burden of win penalties of 11lb, some may wonder if he's been eating too many doughnuts. If you see candyfloss around his chops you know where he's been before the start. There is little doubt Hugo Palmer's son of Cotia Glory is the class horse of the field and if racing off level weights would likely sail past these like Nelson with the smell of gunpowder in the air. This two time winner, runner-up at Listed class and collected the wooden spoon when finishing last in the July Stakes (Group 2) but not beaten far. With an official rating of 96 we have a talented two-year-old dropped in class to make it three wins from six starts. At the time of writing, Dig Two is priced 10/11. Will this 11lb welterweight be enough to give the opposition a fighting chance? 

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise. 

There are two or three horses in this race that may be capable types. 

City Runner is no slouch for Brian Meehan. In fact, I'm pretty sure this grey colt in the familiar Manton Thoroughbred silks is up to winning and better than we have seen. He was fancied in the betting on debut at Windsor and a combination of inexperience and bumping into a talented winner [Orazio] saw him finish a creditable second leaving the feeling there would be better to come second start. He was a market drifter when heading to Salisbury second time out when stepping up to 7f. This son of Caravaggio is a straightforward horse who travelled well and put down a decent challenge in a hotly contested race. He was there with every chance at the furlong pole before tiring in the closing stages. There's a chance he could be slightly outpaced dropping back in trip but should finish his race. Looks the type to hold respectable each-way claims. 

I'm quite interested in Rizg. To be fair, Roger Varian has had a pretty dire season with his juveniles which is always a slight concern when things haven't been going well and a number of debutantes have failed to shine. All these factors have to be taken into consideration especially with horses making their racecourse bow. This chestnut son of No Nay Never out of a winning mare cost 85,000g at the yearling sales and in the ownership of Imad Alsagar. The betting is key to this colt's chances. If priced 5/1 and less SP, it would give added hope. I would consider this one of Varian's better juveniles but with such a poor season it does bring thoughts of limitation. If drifting to double-figure odds I'd leave well alone. The downside with betting on any debutante is that it can be hard work and inexperience can finish the best of juveniles. The concern here is that to be a big threat he will need to be strongly fancied in the betting, the downside with that is the possible lack of value. A horse I would respect but whether I'd like to bet I'm not so sure. 

Irish Millions hails from a stable that does well at Yarmouth. However, the Haggas debutantes can be pretty hit and miss and statically price to chance at best. 

Mick Channon has struggled with a depleted string of two-year-olds in recent seasons. When you think back to the good old days he really is a shadow of his former self. Pneumatic races in the ownership of the trainer and holds an entry for the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) which may give this son of Churchill some hope of ability. This colt isn't fancied in the betting which suggests he will be better for the run. Very few of Channon's debutantes win at double-figure odds, although it isn't impossible. However, I would use that betting guide as a fair assessment of any hopes. This year's two-year-olds have been disappointing and failed to deliver which tempers enthusiasm. 

Thunder Valley is a big price and would need to be substantially backed to figure. 

Experience is always an advantage and Michael Bell does well at the seaside track. Haarar was a big price on debut and showed little. May have claims if seriously backed but would need to be in single-figure odds to register. 

The others looked best watched. 

Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. Dig Two has the class and proven ability. Even with the winner's weight burden I wouldn't right off this horse. In fact, from a study I run horses with win penalties when fancied in the betting have a very good strike rate. However, whether you think it is a 50% strike rate for an even money shot is a matter of opinion. If betting, I would hope this colt has a major drift in the market to eek out every bit of value. I get the feeling Rizg will run a big race but the stable two-year-olds have been very disappointing this season. And betting on debut at short odds isn't always the most pleasurable of bets to watch. The safest option is probably City Runner as a viable each-way alternative. I think the stable rate this colt more than the ability we have seen so far but he probably isn't any world beater. Again, I'd rather be getting near double-figure odds [exchanges] and cover the place. If he gets in a battle with the favourite and comes second best you may see him unplaced which is always a fear when you are banking on a place at worst. If betting, I'd either have a small each-way bet on City Runner or half a win on the favourite and Meehan's and have two shots rather than one.

Full result: Racing Post

Author: Jason Coote

5:45 Yarmouth Racing Tips (4th August)

An interesting EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good going. 

Eight two-year-olds take part: three juveniles with racecourse experience and five debutantes from leading stables. 

Princess Shabnam is held in some regard by connections and done little wrong in two runs so far. Sean Woods doesn't have the biggest string of two-year-olds but seen to good effect early season with the like of General Panic and Meng Tian. I'd be confident that this bay daughter of Gregorian is the best two-year-old in the stable. She's a battling type who tried hard and it was a decent effort last time out at Newmarket when a narrow loser to Frankella at Class 2. That level of ability is plenty good enough to take most maidens. She is probably price to chance and should make the most of her experience against a few well-bred debutantes who may be wiser for the outing. 

It's worth noting Red Joan who was a 9/2 chance in the same race at Newmarket. This daughter of Showcasing was similarly priced on debut but too experienced to do herself justice with a slow start and then a little too keen. This 180,000g yearling is a good-looking filly and she may be a little better than seem so far. There's little doubt she went a stride too fast when finishing behind Princess Shabnam and if settling isn't without a hope. It's always slightly concerning betting on this type of horse because if keen again you have little hope and being her third start she may be a better candidate for nursery races. However, I wouldn't simply right off her chances because she was well beaten last time out. 

Archie Watson hasn't seen the triumphs of last season with his string of two-year-olds who are clearly not as talented as previous years. Aunt Bethany is sired by Cotai Glory out of a winning mare and 55,000g breeze-up purchase. Watson has his horse fit and ready so if up to winning on debut should go well. The betting is the best guide to her chances today. If priced under 5/1 I would expect a decent run. If weak in the betting, she is more likely to hit the frame. 

William Haggas does well at Yarmouth, with debutantes finding the winner's enclosure. Perfect News is an exceptionally well bred filly sired by Frankel out of a very talented mare, trained by William Haggas, Besharah, who won at Group 2 and contested Group 1, and placed in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Both horses are in the ownership of Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum. The betting is the best guide to her chances although Haggas can be pretty hit and miss with two-year-old making their racecourse bow. From a statistical point of view, she is much more likely to be placed. However, with such a pedigree you are always ready for a few fireworks. 

Roger Varian has had a pretty poor year with his two-year-olds. Many have disappointed but a few have found the winning post in these last three weeks. Ruggles is a home bred from The Gredley Family. This daughter of Exceed And Excel is out of a winning mare. Varian does well at this course. If priced 9/1 and less SP may come into calculations but presently a little weak in the betting. In general, the debutantes have very good place claims but if priced in double figures I would be surprised if she wins. 

Basholo is a £60,000 yearling purchase in training with Brian Meehan. He's had a pretty quiet year with his two-year-olds. In the ownership of KHK Racing Ltd who have a number of talents with many and varied handlers. Meehan's debutantes often need the run but he is a trainer who can go well with horses priced 20/1 and less. I get the feeling this daughter of Caravagio will need the run and I'd take a watching brief. 

Token Trader is best watched. 

Girl Inthe Picture will do better in nursery races. 

Conclusion: Princess Shabman sets the standard and a pretty straightforward horse who runs to the line. There's a chance she will be slightly outpaced in the early stages and run on and could well take some stopping. Red Joan is a lovely-looking filly who hasn't been seen to her best. If settling could hold each-way claims and may even have a fighting chance against the favourite. However, you are pushing your luck because if she doesn't settle you will see a similar performance to the last two races where she hasn't finished her race. Aunt Bethany is probably the most likely of the debutantes from a statistical point of view. If fancied in the betting has respectable claims. Perfect News is a very interesting filly but the stats suggest she is more likely to be placed than win. The others are best watched unless there is very good money. Not the type of race I would bet in myself. I'd have to go with Princess Shabnam if pressed but wouldn't rule out Red Joan as a live each-way chance. 

Full result: 

Source: Racing Post

Author: Jason Coote

Wednesday's 2YO Info (7th July)

Another late post.

Four two-year-old races today. I'm not looking at the juvenile nursery races as I find them a distraction and, sometimes, a very frustrating race type. So last year I decided to give them a miss as they can take a lot of time to assess and appreciated, which, in my opinion, isn't time well spent. They are a race medium from the highest to lowest grade. I consider if you can't work out the chances of a horse running in a maiden then you have little hope of tipping a winner in a nursery race. 

Each to their own. 

Anyway, let's take a quick look at today's proceedings.  

1:15 Catterick - 

Many punters will be looking at Russellinthebushes as a certainty. It might win but I won't be betting on it. Why? Because from experience when a half-talented horse is dropped in plating class it is a sign of disaster. There might be a slight difference between selling and claiming races. I wouldn't be betting at about even money that's for sure. To be honest, I wouldn't bet in this race unless I could get about 4/1 on Black Hill Storm. That's not going to happen. However, I do feel Evan's runner, who has won and raced well at this grade, is here because that's where he should be and fighting for a winning chance rather than the slightly desperate look of Tom Dacombe's charge. Neither look much value at the prices so I will be watching. 

2:30 Yarmouth - 

In an ideal world, I'd be at Yarmouth races today. However, things haven't gone to plan over the last two weeks and I'm at home. This race is interesting. Eve Lodge is a talented filly for Charlie Fellowes and she should enjoy this faster going. She won well on her second start and wasn't disgraced at Royal Ascot when contesting the Albany Stakes (Group 3). She carries a penalty but odds-on here. She's clearly up to racing at Group class so this banded race may be easy pickings for her even carrying a win penalty. She is a naturally speedy type and held in high regard by connections. It's probably a matter of whether the penalty is enough to slow her down a length or two. Most two-year-olds that are fancied in the betting, carrying a penalty, run well. Clearly being odds-on the bookies are hardly giving anything away. This could well be a stepping stone to better races. She has been earmarked for the Lowther Stakes (Group). 

I have half an eye on Hugo Palmer's Crocodile Tears as an each-way alternative. The bookmakers aren't going to be giving anything away. If betting, you'd have to do so on the exchanges as the win market will possibly offer much bigger odds. The place is about even money. This daughter of Bungle Inthejungle ran ok on debut at Bath. Her level of form compared to the favourite is lacking. However, she should improve for that debut effort and if fancied in the betting has decent each way claims. You may be looking to get your money back rather than winning (which is never a good bet) but she holds some chance of running a race. I'd be hoping she drifts to about 10/1 on the exchanges and cover the place. If that doesn't happen, I'd just watch. 

I can't see Ye Gud Thing doing much even though Mohammed Moubarak does well at the course. I think she will be outpaced and running on. If betting, you would be wise to do so in running as I'm sure you will get bigger odds. Although I can't see her winning. 

Adnaan ran ok here on debut and showed decent pace when stepping up to 6f on his second start. This son of Ardad is well owned and trained. Not the easiest of horses to assess in ways and may be one that flatters to deceive. He's about 20/1 on the exchanges and you may just about get 11/4 for a place so you wouldn't need too much cash to hope he hits the frame (no lose bet) and hoping for the win. Who knows? That's why you might be betting on a 20/1 shot because it has some chance and could be worth a small each way bet at speculative odds. 

Winning and losing on the horses is all about value. If you don't have that on side you will be struggling whatever the case. 

Conclusion: I would fear the favourite but wouldn't be betting at those odds. I'd have to look for an each way alternative such as Crocodile Tears (they may be a punters) or Adnaan as a bit of a speculative poke. I would definitely need 10/1+ on the exchanges if betting on Palmer's horse. Adnaan is one of those horses with a glimmer of hope at odds but just might prove a frustrating option. 

3:20 Lingfield - 

Profound Alexander is held in some regard by William Muir and Chris Grassick (naming of trainers is getting longer). She has a decent level of form, likes the going and these banded races don't, usually, take that much winning. The downside, there is little value. I'm not keen betting at short odds because it can be a frustrating way to make money. I do think she will take some beating though. 

Brett Johnson doesn't have many two-year-olds and Damascus Finish is a nice looking gelding. It surprised me reading the race comments for the Racing Post than no one mentioned how keen he was over 7f last time out on this course. It was a miracle he lasted as long as he did. This drop back in distance should help and I would respect his chances. This March foal has been well backed. I can't see much value at 15/8 but I would like to see him go well for the stable. 

Brilliant News looked a bit disappointing last time although the form of that race has worked out quite well. However, I do think this colt will struggle to win although possible. 

No bet. 

5:45 Kempton - 

Philosophy is held in high regard by Simon & Ed Crisford. This son of Exceed And Excel is no price but should take some beating. There may be each-way alternative in Lady Fantasia for Roger Varian. This bay filly was fancied to go well on debut but the stable has been really struggling with its juveniles this year which does bring some concerns. If fancied in the betting would hold very good claims. Spiceline showed promise on debut and looked a touch disappointing last time but it may have been the case it was a very good race. 

Couldn't bet in this race although will be surprised if Philosophy doesn't win. 

Author: Jason Coote

Noble Dynasty Goes Close on Debut

It’s been great watching top-class Flat racing again over the weekend and while all eyes were on the 1000 and 2000 Guineas I was more interested in the new talents stepping onto the racecourse for the first time. 

I mentioned Europe's 2019 highest priced yearling Noble Dynasty who cost 3,600,000 guineas as one to watch out for at Newmarket and even though the Dubawi colt got beat by stablemate Modern News he ran a race full of promise and will be winning in the very near future. 

Another Godolphin runner I was keen to see back out again was Eastern World who was taking on King Leonidas, despite giving weight away King Leonidas put the Godolphin runner in his place with an impressive performance. 

I have a few trackers that I will mention for the week ahead, but as always the 2-year-olds are always a gamble first timeout. 

Wednesday 10th June Pontefract 12.45 

INHALER could be an interesting one and I will be keeping a close eye on this Karl Burke trained £32,000 yearling in the betting when he appears at either Haydock or Pontefract this week. Any money for the son of Elzaam will be positive. He’s currently 14/1 at the time of writing for the Haydock race tomorrow but with plenty of rain, I wonder if he will run. It also looks a competitive race with top yards out in force. 

Wednesday 10th June 4.35 Yarmouth 

SPARKLING OLLY has an early entry for Yarmouth and will hopefully run. The 300,000 gns purchase at the 2018 October Yearling Sales wasn’t fancied when going off a 33/1 shot on debut at Newmarket last October. 

Sparkling Olly was always up with the pace and looked like she knew her job from the start, it was only the last furlong or so when she ran green and could never land a blow. It looked like she had more to give to me and should have learned plenty from that experience. A well-bred filly related to Railway Stakes winner Lilbourne Lad. 

Wednesday 10th June 2.25 Pontefract

This tracker I have had for a while so I will be checking the market for sure. SANDS OF GIZA for Richard Fahey and the Cool Silk team. Purchased for £67,000 at the 2018 Premier Yearling sales and a half-brother to Sands Of Mali. 

Wednesday 10th June 6.45 Yarmouth 

MAGICAL MORNING The homebred bay colt looks the type to improve as a 3-year-old after an encouraging performance at Kempton last October. This is the first offspring of Dam The Lark who ended her career with an official rating of 106 after running to a decent level in Pattern races as a 3-year-old. The highlight winning the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster in 2013. 

Magical Morning took a slight drift in the betting from 7/2 to 9/2 before the off and showed a sign of greenness when slowly away, it wasn’t till a few furlongs out the penny dropped and Magical Morning improved to move up the field and finish a no nearer sixth. The winner at Kempton that day was the impressive Satono Japan who looks a useful sort. A step up in trip will hopefully bring out more improvement to the Muhaarar Colt. 

Good luck and stay safe.

Weekly 2- Old-Eye-Catchers (Monday 19th-Sunday 25th August)

17:25 Yarmouth 20 Aug 2019: 

Pocket Square was given a nice introduction at Yarmouth on Tuesday. This homebred Night Of Thunder Roger Charlton filly was well-supported on debut and despite finishing third in the six runner race I was impressed by how she handled herself. Pocket Square looked professional from the start with Jason Watson giving her a crack of the whip a couple of furlongs out, she couldn’t quite match the pace of the winner but was getting the hang of things late on. I guess after a pleasing debut she won't be much of a price next start but I will be hoping she can improve and get her first win. 

14:15 Bath 21 Aug 2019: 

Tommy Rock looks a 2-year-old to follow after a pleasing debut in the Sounds Commercial Bristol Maiden Stakes at Bath on Wednesday. The Clive Cox trained Society Rock colt is owned by Mr Peter Ridgers and was purchased for 100,000 euros as a yearling in the October sales last year. The fact that this grey colt was drawn wide on debut made life a little more difficult, having said that he will have learnt plenty from his first run. Tommy Rock was tapped for toe early on before getting the hang of things later on. The eventual winner Brad The Brief had already flown before Tommy Rock had got into top gear. We will see a much better performance next time out and Tommy Rock will benefit with a step up in distance. I would go as far as saying the 2/1 favourite was the best horse in the race and a win is just around the corner. 

14:05 Carlisle 21 Aug 2019: 

I could be barking up the wrong tree with this 2-year-old to follow but Dandy’s Angel made a pleasing debut at Carlisle this week. I know trainer John Wainwright isn't the most fashionable 2-year-old trainer, in fact, I can't find the last time he actually had a 2-year-old winner, to be honest, but this Dandy Man filly was bought for 20,000 gns this year and despite being way behind early on jockey Sean Davis got a great tune out of her and from being a country mile behind she stayed on quite nicely to finish third behind Deb’s Delight. It wasn't the best race but I am sure she can get her head in front soon and win a small race for owner Mr Anthony Ross. 

14:05 Newmarket 23 Aug 2019: 

Not sure how good the form of the C J Murfitt Ltd Fillies' Novice Stakes race is but the one I will be putting in my trackers is the David Simcock trained Broadbeach. The 60,000 gns Dandy Man filly ran a cracker on her debut. Hayley Turner gave her a peach of a ride and it was only the last furlong Broadbeach began to wander a bit. The 33/1 shot will have learned a lot from that debut and will be looking to get her first win on the board next timeout. 

15:15 Newmarket 23 Aug 2019: 

Am guessing Never Alone will be odds on next start after a promising first run. This was an impressive debut in what looked like a hot little contest. It was all about the other Charlie Appleby colt Royal Crusade here who looks top class after a tidy win but the 1,200,000 gns Dubawi colt Never Alone was staying on at the finish and will be winning races soon enough. 

16:15 York 23 Aug 2019: 

You know most of the horses entered in the Convivial Maiden Stakes race will be decent. The price that the Tom Dascome colt Pot Of Paint was huge. The 66/1 shot was kept at the back by Richard Kingscote before he weaved his way through beaten horses to finish strongly into fourth place. That was an excellent run considering he was at the back until a few furlongs out and the form of the winner looks rock solid. Definitely, one who should pick up a race in the near future. Thanks for reading and look out for my next 2-year-olds to follow