Wednesday's 2yo Racing (11th August)

A bumper day of two-year-old races. 

It doesn't fill my heart with joy as I'm not keen on a busy day. However, that's what we have so I will simply mention a few horses of interest and next to no analysis. It's either one race with full analysis or a brief summary. 

1:30 Yarmouth - 

Brasil Power, held in some regard by George Boughey and in the familiar silks of powerful owner Amo Racing Limited. This £410,000 breeze-up purchase (where do these people get all their money from) should go well. 

1:55 Salisbury - 

Looking forward to seeing how Monitor goes today. I would be confident this colt has ability and held in some regard by the stable. However, this may be a tough contest with Poet ready to roll, Level Up showing an element of ability at Goodwood for Amanda Perrett (who doesn't have many juveniles) and even Kingofhell may have half a hope at giant odds. I am looking forward to Monitor though. 

2:30 Salisbury - 

Flying Secret, trained by Eve Johnson-Houghton is a potentially smart colt and would be of interest if touching each-way odds. 

2:50 Beverley - 

Thunder Legend must run a race here. Palmer doesn't send many two-year-olds to Beverley but when he does they usually go well. 

Good luck to connections. 

Author: Jason Coote

5:40 Salisbury Racing Tips (29th May)

An interesting race over 5f on good to soft going.

Second Wind ran out a fair winner at Yarmouth on debut, taking advantage of Robasta who was 4/7f and struggled to play catch-up after a slow start. William Haggas [Second Wind] hasn't seen many two-year-olds on course this early season but this son of Kodiac was earmarked for a York Class 2 race but heads to Wiltshire with a win penalty. In my opinion it is always difficult to assess a winner. How do you limit a winner? That was a small field and the runner up [Robasta] has been placed twice since. It will be interesting to see if Second Wind can defy the burden. 

This looks a competitive race.

Rod Millman sends many of his better juveniles to race at Salisbury and Amazonian Dream is probably one of their better two-year-olds. In fact, I would go so far to say that the form of his first two starts is easily good enough to win an average maiden and it wouldn't be a surprise to see this son of Bungle Inthejungle contest pattern class. A good-looking colt with size and strength, he ran a sterling race on debut at Newbury. That was a decent race. He was very unlucky to bump into Tom Dasacombe's Flaming Rib when seemingly dropped in class at Haydock. The way the winners cruised past the opposition, I can only image he is group class. Amazonian Dream is a straightforward horse who has a level of ability. That is usually enough to win a race. Without doubt, he will run a race but will he win is another question. As always, it's about price to chance and value. I would rather bet on this horse each-way (if prices allow) but it's unlikely to get to that price. 

To add to the mix we have another trainer who I associate sending talented two-year-olds to Salisbury. Ralph Beckett unleashed Hello You who won impressively at Wolverhampton. Owner, Amo Racing Ltd have been splashing the cash like no ones business and Lovely Mana is worthy of respect. Beckett can win on debut, especially when his juveniles are strongly fancied in the betting (to be fair he is one trainer who can go well at a price). This daughter of Dabirsim out of a winning mare cost 115,000 guineas at the yearling sales. A horse I would fear. 

We don't stop at these three juveniles. There could be a dark horse hiding in the mist. Bosh, trained by Richard Hannon, may be a talented two-year-old. In fact I would go as far to say this bay colt has a level of ability. This son of Profitable out of a winning mare wasn't the most expensive yearling purchase at 62,000 guineas but money isn't always the answer to a talented two-year-old. Hannon has been in good form with his two-year-olds this season with five debut winners and plenty of others on their second start. If priced 10/1 and less sp has a fighting chance although I am always a little apprehensive about betting on horses on their first time outing. It's never an easy feat to beat an experienced horse. 

Saeed bin Suroor has been quiet this early season. He had his first two-year-old runner at Pontefract (28th May) and that colt disappointed. Home City doesn't look to be fancied in the betting but may have a hope if backed. The mare enjoyed a trip so whether this start over the minimum trip is up for question. However, the sire was a sprinter through and through. Home City has been earmarked for three decent races. A couple of Class 2 stakes races and even thoughts of going to Beverley for the Continental Two-Year-Old Trophy (Beverley 3:10). Those entries could well detail a talented horse. I think the betting will tell the story. If fancied to go well, I would consider this colt has to be priced 7/1 and less sp. 

Conclusion: Even a mundane looking race can hide potential stars of racing. Whether that will be the case here only time will tell. However, make no mistake this is a decent race with strength and depth. Form horses always have a distinct advantage and that's why Amazonian Dream and Second Wind (even with a win penalty) should be respected. It could be the case there are three debutantes heading here with hopes of a perfect start to their racing career. Lovely Mana, Bosh and Home City all catch the eye. The betting will seal the deal for Home City. If weak in the betting I would suspect he needs the run or a step up in distance. I would give Beckett's Lovely Mana a big shout if starting favourite and would be a live chance if not. I'm half interested in Bosh if available on the exchanges at a price. However, there is money for this colt and I would just fear betting at shorter odds because this race won't be a walk in the park. I would have to take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote 

2-Year-Old Racing Previews (October 1st)

A spare few minutes, so I will do a quick update on a few fancies for today. 

In my last post I mentioned I would be doing an each way bet on the Andrew Balding trained Landing System, watching the race and the betting it was a four horse race, Landing System did take a late drift which was worrying but I couldn't complain with the effort the Bernardini colt put in when just pipped for fourth place considering M M Stables manager Armando Duarte actually said he will be better as a 3-year-old. One to keep an eye out for next season. I did mention I was worried that Charlie Appleby trained Siskany, and I was right to do so as he hung on gamely to win by half-a-length. One I mentioned on twitter was another Appleby runner called Sayyida who was green and awkward on debut. I did have an each way bet at 8s and even though she finished second I still think she could be a useful filly in the future after a big improvement on her debut run. 

Salisbury hosts a cracking card today with plenty of 2-year-old action to get stuck into. The good to soft going isn't to my liking but I will mention a few anyway. 

12:20 Salisbury 01 Oct 2020 

I think I’m relying on the form of the Simon and Ed trained Latest Generation being decent here and actually backed MOHAAFETH at 3's last night. Latest Generation does look a nice type and even though Mohaafeth never got a blow in on debut at Doncaster he ran well. Pretty steady in the market that day at around 6's the Frankel colt looked professional on debut and was never given a hard time by Jim Crowley. I think a bit was left to work on plus the ground was pretty similar that day to today so that should be alright. Dam French Dressing only ran twice for John Gosden and won twice including a Listed race at York. As always anything could be lurking here with some nice looking newcomers but hopefully Mohaafeth can improve for that promising debut run. (6/4 at the time of writing) 

13:55 Salisbury 01 Oct 2020 

The favourite Fundamental looks a nice type for John Gosden and could improve any amount after a decent debut third against the well-thought of William Haggas trained Ready To Venture. John Gosden does well with Cheveley Park runners so not surprised the Dark Angel colt is odds on here. This was a late decision with this bet but I managed to get 12/1 each way on the Charlie Hills trained THE ATTORNEY. The Kodiac colts debut was way back in July when sent off a 100/1 shot and it showed as slowly away was an understatement. This was a pretty decent race to be fair and The Attorney wasn't beaten a million miles after making a bit of ground at the end.(Well-supported 13/2 at time of writing, could be shorter when uploaded) 

16:25 Chelmsford City 01 Oct 2020

Another hot favourite in the name of Jacinth and to be honest I like this one but too short to have a bet so I'm going for an each way on the John Gosden trained TAWAHUB who was priced 100/30 on debut at Kempton the start of last month. Not sure how good the form of that race was but Tawahub was another who looked to be given a learning experience and should come on plenty. Only thing that worries me is the Kingman filly looks like she needs a bit further but I'm sure that will be the case next season. ( 7/1 at the time of writing, another each way for me).  

Sorry it’s late but good luck and stay safe

Profitable Courses for Flat Jockeys (Part 1)

Before the 2019 flat season gets going it's worth getting your ammunition ready, so after finishing my trainer profile series, it’s time to find some profitable jockeys. Italian jockey Andrea Atzeni in my view is one of the best jockeys around, who has won many big races and is currently stable jockey for Roger Varian. Salisbury is a course with a nice profit, so over the past three years with three-year-old horses and over, he had 15 rides with 7 winning, giving a 46.7 per cent win strike rate and 282.7 per cent win return at starting price.

Am not really one for betting on handicap races as it just baffles me but if I can find a statistic with profit that will do for me, so the next jockey on the list is Charles Bishop. I would say he’s improved so much in recent years and by following him over the past three years in handicap races at Epsom it would give you a tidy profit. The statistics back this up, 15 rides with 9 wins, giving a 60.0 per cent win strike rate and 212.6 per cent win return at starting price on three-year-old and over horses.

2016 champion jockey Jim Crowley is another great jockey who has popped up on my radar, he loves nothing more than a few winners at Nottingham. Taking a quick look at the statistics he seems pretty consistent each year, so let's have a look at the profit over the past three years. I have narrowed it down. handicap and novice races only, any age or distance would have seen him have 59 rides with 22 winners giving a 37.3 per cent win strike rate and a nice 239.3 per cent win return at starting price.

I had a feeling this jockey and course would be on my list even before I looked at the statistics. When I think of Ben Curtis (pictured) I always think of Carlisle racecourse so it’s no surprise to see it’s a profitable racecourse for him, so over the past three years in maiden and novice races only, see him have 31 rides and winning 14 with an impressive 45.2 per cent win strike rate and an even more impressive 341.6 per cent win return at starting price, look out for Ben Curtis riding for trainer Karl Burke. 

James Doyle is a jockey that oozes class and when you back one of his horses you know he will give his best shot, last seasons strike rate at Wolverhampton was unbelievable with 14 wins out of 20 rides over all distances, race types and age of horses with a 70.0 per cent win strike rate and a 241.3 per cent win return at starting price. It will be interesting to see if he can do it again this season but I will be checking the results. As always, there are no guaranteed winners but a few pointers in the right direction.

Good luck and look out for my next Profitable courses for flat jockeys
(part 2).