Saturday's 2yo Racing Tips (26th November)

We have 3 races today. 

4:50 Wolverhampton -

So Many Questions is high stat horse but no real value. Great State looked inexperienced and was slow away but ran on well and put down a similar performance to Roger Charlton's horse. Has fair stats. Looks a fair match although the former has much better stats. Soaring Eagle was a high stat horse last time out and ran a fair race. That was a decent race so the form is probably of a level. Also, this filly drops in distance, back to 5f. She was slow away on debut over the minimum trip but travelled well and put in a respectable effort. Interesting to consider how this drop back in trip goes. Should be running on at the line if not having the pace to lead. This trio aren't the easiest to assess and not have outstanding value unless drifting in the market. Crimson Angel is a home bred and a well bred filly who should be a sprinter. Would have stronger claims if 9/2 and less sp. A filly against a couple of fancied colts. Always a slight concern making a debut on a turning course. All in all a competitive race and there doesn't look much value unless something drifting in the betting. 

5:50 Wolverhampton - 

Embrace is a short price and from a statistical point of view no real value. In need of the run and out the back for most of the race before running on with promise. Definitely a horse with hope but wouldn't want to be slow away and a short price from a wide draw. Warren Hill was fancied on debut and a nice looking filly who was professional and led for a long way that day. Tired in the closing stages and should be better prepared today and appreciate this turning course. Has high stats if 9/2 and less sp. Definitely a horse with some hope. Way To Amarillo hasn't been seen for 150 days. I imagine making a return at this date indicates connections are hopeful of a win sooner or later. Has been fancied on both starts and looks better suited by 7f. Didn't do much wrong last time out and could well lead today. The apprentice takes the ride and I imagine this horse will make a bold attempt from the front. Statu Of Liberty won last time out. A capable horse but may be vulnerable to a couple here. A couple of other potential high stat horses include Ceanna who didn't do much on debut but hold very good claims if 13/2 and less sp. Interesting to see if the money comes. A similar story for Impulsive Lady who made a bold bid on debut before tiring. Has very good stats if 13/2 and less sp. Much less chance if over. Paul Cole can go well on debut and Twinkle Star is well owned and would have some hope if 10/1 and less sp. Amo Racing often get the money out and it could be worth noting if you fancy a punt. The betting nearer the off should help pick between the lines. 

6:20 Wolverhampton - 

Glittering Lights has been fancied on both starts and has shown ability and may appreciate dropping back a furlong. Tom Clover has done well this season and Rajindri ran well on debut at big odds. Ran on well through the field and finished with spirit. Has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Coral Reef hasn't been seen for 170 days and a well bred horse which cost good money. Was slow away and bumped on debut at Haydock over 6f and had a mountain to climb thereafter. Looked very inexperienced that day. Ran on and finished third. Should be wiser for that effort and stepping up in distance. Has claims if 13/2 and less sp. The apprentice may help. There has been money for Roarin' Success trained by Roger Charlton. A workman like horse who has shown ability but may struggle for pace dropping back a furlong. Chamber Choir made a bold show sto at Yarmouth over 6f. Changed stable which may be a negative and a horse I would rather watch today. 

Jason

4:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (4th December)

A quick post. 

Like most of these races, the majority of two-year-olds are priced with little chance of winning. The chance of most horses winning when priced 25/1+ is slim. In general, debutantes have an equal chance of winning at big odds as those with race experience. However, it is surprising how this success varies markedly from trainer to trainer. In that I mean, certain horse trainers simply do not win when priced at big odds. You may think the smaller trainers have more opportunity to slip past the bookmakers but it is very individual and the only real understanding is by observing the data from one trainer to another. 

This is a lengthy introduction to detail that this is likely to be a four-horse race. 

The four favourites. 

Last Ammo is a rare candidate for Charlie Appleby being in the ownership of Sultan Ali, rather than in the Godolphin silks. To be honest, I'm not sure what connection he may be to Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum. This son of Teofilo wasn't too fancied on debut when priced 10/1, finishing fourth at Kempton racing over 1m. This colt was second string that day but ran well and this step up to 1m 1 1/2f should see a bold show. From a statistical point of view, this chestnut colt has very good claims, although probably no better than price to chance.  

Charlie Appleby has Wild Crusade making his debut. This son of Dubawi is out of a Listed winner and she has been the mare to a couple of exceptional talents in Yabir and Wild Illusion, both won over a million. This colt could hold claims, especially if priced 11/4 and less sp. Few win when priced over 8/1+. 

Yummylicious has raced twice for John & Thady Gosden although has a wide draw, which may not be a problem over this trip but never ideal on a turning track. In addition, is one of three fillies against a field of colts. Even with a sex allowance, it is always a slight negative for a filly to race against bigger, stronger foe. This daughter of Dubawi steps up in distance after a debut of 7f and a bigger second start when stepping up to 1m 1/2f. A fair hope although the draw and a filly against the colts is a negative. 

John Gosden fields two debutantes in the Cheveley Park Stud owned Homeric and Mariinsky in the Godolphin silks. He is a trainer who can win with debutantes at bigger odds.

Simon Crisford's Benzine can go well on debut at a price although they are more likely to be placed than win.   

Other horses to consider are Rendition & Maytree Respite. 

Summary: An interesting race. Last Ammo deserves respect but no price, although the stats suggests a leading chance. Wild Crusade may have claims, especially if strongly backed. Yummylicious has hopes although a filly against the colts is a concern for me. John Gosden is no stranger to a second or third string winning so Homeric and Mariinsky hold some interest. Could an outsider win? Rendition & Maytree Respite are worth a closer look. As is Benzine who has each way claims. Last Ammo has the best chance but no price and I wouldn't be betting. 

A watching brief. 

Note: At the time of writing Last Ammo was 1/1. At biggest, touched 4/1 on the exchanges. The reason why trying to write a post is so difficult considering this was post late in the day, which just proves the point.

Result: 

Source: Racing Post

6:15 Wolverhampton Racing Info (29th January)

Just a quick look. 

Such brevity often evolves into a chapter of Mills & Boon. At least it's a Fillies' Novice Stakes, and not a million miles from Valentine's Day. 

An eleven-strong field. The betting suggest most of these have little hope. At the time of writing, just four horse priced under 40/1. 

Rod Millman fields Lightning Lou, who is making her second start after finishing runner-up on her debut at odds of 80/1. This grey daughter of Brazen Beau, who was very much a sprinter, is out of  a winning mare, who liked a trip. She cost just 4,500gns at the yearling sales after fetching 14,000gns as a foal. This February foal defied the odds on debut when racing over 7f at Kempton. She was professional, leading from the stalls until the closing furlong or so, but beaten by the favourite. Millman must have been very satisfied with that effort, and increased the worth of the filly quite substantially for the paltry sum at the sales. The stable does well second start and could well improve for the experience and stepping up to eight-and-a-half furlongs. I could see her racing prominently which may give backers some chance of laying in running at shorter odds. The downside is that Millman's general standard of horse may be slightly lower than what's needed to win this race. However, she does have valuable experience over two of the debutantes fancied in the betting. Could well hold each-way claims but most likely vulnerable to a filly with some ability. 

John Gosden has been in decent form with his three-year-olds over this winter. Kestenna cost 95,000 euros as a yearling (increasing markedly on the foal price of 28,000gns). This daughter of Pride Of Dubai was fancied to go well on debut. She wasn't helped by a tardy start and looked inexperienced throughout. At times she was short of room and ran on in the closing stages. It's never easy for a horse to show it's best when making its debut on a turning course (something very few people ever mention). She's stepping up half a furlong, which will help, and a fortnight off track will brush away the cobwebs. A wide draw is far from ideal. Although the stats suggest a very good run (will be under priced on my info unless drifting a good deal). I have slight fears Kestenna will struggle for pace and ideally appreciated a stiffer test of stamina. If trying to get to the rail in an attempt to lead and failing, running wide, it would be a worry. Perhaps the debut run will see a much smarter performance today and my concerns will no be seen. However, at short odds you may well get a much bigger price in running or be wise not to bet at all. An intriguing horse but I would have fears she may struggle for pace and this could be a problem. 

The two debutantes are interesting. 

James Tate is a decent trainer although his debutantes can be very hit and miss. There has been money for Raise The Roof, a daughter of Free Eagle out of an easy debut-winning mare, who actually achieved that success over course and distance. She was a cheap yearling purchase at 20,000gns, for Rabbah Bloodstock (Saeed Manana) who often pick up some decent horses at bargain prices. A wide draw isn't ideal, especially when making a debut on a turning course. The betting is the best guide to this fillies' chances. If priced 11/4 and less SP it would give additional confidence. If weak in the betting it would be a concern although the stable does feature decent place claims with horse priced in single figures. I'd be keeping a close eye on the betting and wouldn't jump in early becuase the starting price will be a truer reflection of the chances.

Another debutante worthy of note is Charlie Appleby's Colour Of Light. This bay daughter of Shamardal out of a winning mare, who raced at pattern class, is a home bred for Godolphin. The stable can ready a debutante and she isn't badly drawn in stall six. Once again, the betting is the best guide to her chance and ideally this February foal would be priced 3/1 and less SP. 

Conclusion: An intriguing if not tricky race. I would let the betting settle before jumping in as by the start of the race that insight may help highlight a weak link or two. Kestenna has valuable race experience but a wide draw isn't ideal with a horse that may slightly struggle for pace. She may not, but would you want to have problems when betting on a horse at 6/4? I would definitely wait until near the off if you are betting on Raise The Roof. The wide draw is a big concern and if weak in the market, I would leave alone. Conversely, if strong in the market she could well be the horse to beat. Colour Of Light is interesting and if fancied holds serious claims. Rod Millman's Linghtning Lou could well lead and with her experience may put in a bold show. She looks a horse that could touch much shorter odds in running and if drifting to a crazy price on the exchanges may well be worth a small each-way punt. I suspect she will touch shorter odds in running but find one or two (or three) too good. But an interesting filly taking on the bigger stables with a few doubt here and there. 

Author: Jason Coote

Saturday's 2yo Racing News (21st November)

Just three maidens today - I've given up on nursery races. 

The main race of interest is the 6:30 Wolverhampton. 

Interesting to see how Beloved gets on today after a fair debut effort at Doncaster over one mile on soft ground. This daughter of Frankel was steady in the market that day (15/2) and a touch keen in the early stages before finishing sixth beaten five-and-a-half lengths. Ed Walker has been in decent form with his juveniles this season and, in general, they are much better prospects on their second start. The key factor for Beloved today, in my opinion, is the betting. Very few of the stable's two-year-olds win on their second start when priced in double figures and this would be a weakness if a big drifter in the betting (seen recently with Girl From Ipanema) and failed to shine. 

Beloved has very good each-way claims if priced 13/2 & less sp. 

The major opponents include Charlie Appleby's Mawenzi, who is a well-bred daughter of Dudawi out of an unraced mare. The stable have a very good strike rate when starting favourite and this yard never lacks for strength or depth in the juvenile ranks. 

Similarly John Gosden is a trainer who can unveil a talented two-year-old on debut and Kusnacht, in the ownership of Newsells Park Stud, has claims if priced 13/2 & less sp. The chances of winning on debut when outside this betting guide are much less and should be taken note. 

Other hopes, if backed, include Divine Magic, Gwenhwyvar & Sisu. 

My focus is Beloved is in the best betting guide. However, if weak I will take a watching brief. 

Other maidens on the day include:

1:45 Lingfield 

6:00 Wolverhampton 

Guest post: Jason Coote

Saturday 2-Year-Old Preview (16:45 Wolverhampton 16 Nov 2019)

It’s back! After a week of no flat racing which seemed like forever, by the way, we have what looks like a nice little Novice race to get stuck into. Just on another note as the flat racing will be well and truly over soon this season I will try to find an angle on the Juvenile Hurdlers and the National Hunt Flat races instead of twiddling my thumbs and waiting for the next flat season. I have put a few up on my Facebook page and had two winners so far (beginners luck am sure). 

16:45 Wolverhampton 16 Nov 2019: 

Twelve declared here in what looks a tricky little Novice Stakes race but as we don’t have many 2-year-old races left I will give it a go. 

Godolphin comes here double-handed. First up is the Saeed Bin Suroor Showcasing colt My Vision who cost 88,000gns as a foal and 200,000gns as a yearling. My Vision made his debut here last month and ran a pretty nice race to finish third. Even though the form of that race doesn’t look particularly strong My Vision is entitled to come on plenty for that debut especially as he had a few problems in the stalls beforehand. The fact he was supported from 6s to 4/1 at the off is another positive. 

The second Godolphin runner was the Charlie Appleby Dubawi colt Poet’s Mind who also made a pleasing debut first time out here last month when finishing second to Fashion Royalty. Poet’s Mind was the Godolphin second string that day with the other Appleby runner In The Night going off odds on but only finishing fourth. As for Poet’s Mind who took a drift in the market that day, he had a few problems after being hampered early on then running wide on the bend before just failing to catch Fashion Royalty after finishing strong. I imagine Poet’s Mind will be favourite and another who will come on plenty for his debut and has a good chance to get off the mark here. 

The 125,000,gns yearling FAVOURITE MOON has already had two runs and improved again the last timeout. The William Haggas trained Sea The Moon colt ran in what looked like a pretty hot race last time out at Newbury when finishing fourth to the Hugo Palmer trained Acquitted. The third that day Mishriff has since come out and won easily so the form looks strong and another who could be in with a chance if taking to the Tapata. 

I had an each-way bet on Finely Tuned after getting an early price of 13/2 last time out at Nottingham. The Gleneagles colt was well-supported into 3/1 that day and to be honest, I had given up hope as Finely Tuned looked to get stuck in the mud as the ground at Nottingham was heavy that day. Jack Mitchell didn’t give up and got the Simon Crisford colt going again and ended up just failing to peg back the surprise 50/1 Alan King winner Tremor. My only worry is he could be outpaced again before running on which could be too late by then, we will see. 

Last but not least is the John Gosden Dansili colt CELESTRAN who went off at 12/1 for his debut race at Newmarket 15 days ago. Celestran done a lot wrong that day when starting slowly and running green throughout the race. Celestran looks a big athletic type and despite starting slow the Cheveley Park owned colt got the hang of things late on without threatening the eventual winner Louganini. He stayed on nicely for jockey Nick Mackay and the extra distance should suit, the form didn’t look particularly strong but has potential to improve. 

Conclusion: A tough race here with plenty in with chances and as am in work tonight I have to write this without knowing the betting, plus not much to go on form wise with these later 2-year-old races. Poet’s Mind looks to have a great chance here but not for me at the price. I might do a split stake on Celestran and Favourite Moon if they don’t take a huge drift and the price allows. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

2:45 Wolverhampton Novice Stakes (23rd July)

14:45 Wolverhampton 23 Jul 2019 

Ten go to post in the Holiday Inn Novice Stakes race over 5f 21y 

Trackers highlighted. 

1: Call Me Cheers is one of two runners for David Evans. An 8,000 euro purchase by David Evans in October 2018. Not a bad debut over course and distance in May when backed in from 14/1 to 10/1 and finished fourth after a slow start. Next run he showed speed until halfway, ridden and weakened final furlong. Been gelded since. 

2: Dorchester Dom: This bloody horse gives me nightmares. I backed this David Evans runner last time out when I was convinced he would at least place but was far too keen and weakened quickly. A nice debut in the Brocklesby Stakes in March when beaten just under 4-lengths by Show Me Show Me who ran a great race in the Super Sprint Stakes at the weekend. Sure he is better than his latest run but needs to settle better to be involved here. 

3: Flowing Magic is a 45,000 gns purchase for George Scott. After a fair debut at Yarmouth he took a step backwards last time out at Newcastle. Needs to bounce back after that disappointing effort. 

4: Hot Heels from the Tom Dascombe yard. This Hot Streak colt was a 27,000 euro purchase last September and makes his debut. Needs to be seriously backed to stand a chance against experienced rivals. 

5: Last Date needs a miracle. 

6: X Force runs for the Archie Watson yard. This BungleInTheJungle colt isn’t one of Archies best horses but has run two fair efforts to date. A promising debut against Raahy was followed by a disappointing effort next timeout when beaten by 33/1 shot Glamorous Anna. Archie Watson does have a few 2-year-old winners here so it would be no surprise to see him win. 

7: Airbrush (NR) 

8: Dana Forever looks to be Tom Dascombes main hope here. Yes, and another I backed the first timeout. Dana Forever was entered for the Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies Condition Stakes at Beverley in June but didn’t run. I did expect more to be honest but you just never know what will happen with debutantes. Dana Forever was up with the pace until weakening a furlong out. The betting will prove the best clue to her chances. 

9: Elpheba runs for trainer David Loughnane here. The £25,000 purchase has already run twice and her latest run was an improvement when finishing third to the runaway winner Dr Simpson at Chester. One interesting little fact is the owner David Lowe (part share) also has a horse called Fizzy Feet that won at Wolverhampton as a 2-year-old for the same trainer. 

10: La Chica Lobo another hoping for a miracle. 

11: Northern Grace: Ran in the Class 2 Condition Fillies Stakes race at Newcastle back in May. The Class 2 entry is the only positive for this Brian Ellison filly. The long lay off indicates some kind of problem, will be interesting to see how she runs here. 

Conclusion: Tough race to find a strong bet. Dorchester Dom looks to have the ability but his temperament looks a bit dodgy to me. The Qatar Racing owned X Force has a decent chance to get a win here. Dana Forever was well-supported on debut but disappointed and could be seen in a better light with that run under her belt. Elpheba is interesting with the trainer and owner statistic. 

I will wait till the betting settles before I decide to bet or not. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Profitable Courses for Flat Jockeys (Part 1)

Before the 2019 flat season gets going it's worth getting your ammunition ready, so after finishing my trainer profile series, it’s time to find some profitable jockeys. Italian jockey Andrea Atzeni in my view is one of the best jockeys around, who has won many big races and is currently stable jockey for Roger Varian. Salisbury is a course with a nice profit, so over the past three years with three-year-old horses and over, he had 15 rides with 7 winning, giving a 46.7 per cent win strike rate and 282.7 per cent win return at starting price.

Am not really one for betting on handicap races as it just baffles me but if I can find a statistic with profit that will do for me, so the next jockey on the list is Charles Bishop. I would say he’s improved so much in recent years and by following him over the past three years in handicap races at Epsom it would give you a tidy profit. The statistics back this up, 15 rides with 9 wins, giving a 60.0 per cent win strike rate and 212.6 per cent win return at starting price on three-year-old and over horses.

2016 champion jockey Jim Crowley is another great jockey who has popped up on my radar, he loves nothing more than a few winners at Nottingham. Taking a quick look at the statistics he seems pretty consistent each year, so let's have a look at the profit over the past three years. I have narrowed it down. handicap and novice races only, any age or distance would have seen him have 59 rides with 22 winners giving a 37.3 per cent win strike rate and a nice 239.3 per cent win return at starting price.

I had a feeling this jockey and course would be on my list even before I looked at the statistics. When I think of Ben Curtis (pictured) I always think of Carlisle racecourse so it’s no surprise to see it’s a profitable racecourse for him, so over the past three years in maiden and novice races only, see him have 31 rides and winning 14 with an impressive 45.2 per cent win strike rate and an even more impressive 341.6 per cent win return at starting price, look out for Ben Curtis riding for trainer Karl Burke. 

James Doyle is a jockey that oozes class and when you back one of his horses you know he will give his best shot, last seasons strike rate at Wolverhampton was unbelievable with 14 wins out of 20 rides over all distances, race types and age of horses with a 70.0 per cent win strike rate and a 241.3 per cent win return at starting price. It will be interesting to see if he can do it again this season but I will be checking the results. As always, there are no guaranteed winners but a few pointers in the right direction.

Good luck and look out for my next Profitable courses for flat jockeys
(part 2).