Saturday 4 December 2021

4:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (4th December)

A quick post. 

Like most of these races, the majority of two-year-olds are priced with little chance of winning. The chance of most horses winning when priced 25/1+ is slim. In general, debutantes have an equal chance of winning at big odds as those with race experience. However, it is surprising how this success varies markedly from trainer to trainer. In that I mean, certain horse trainers simply do not win when priced at big odds. You may think the smaller trainers have more opportunity to slip past the bookmakers but it is very individual and the only real understanding is by observing the data from one trainer to another. 

This is a lengthy introduction to detail that this is likely to be a four-horse race. 

The four favourites. 

Last Ammo is a rare candidate for Charlie Appleby being in the ownership of Sultan Ali, rather than in the Godolphin silks. To be honest, I'm not sure what connection he may be to Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum. This son of Teofilo wasn't too fancied on debut when priced 10/1, finishing fourth at Kempton racing over 1m. This colt was second string that day but ran well and this step up to 1m 1 1/2f should see a bold show. From a statistical point of view, this chestnut colt has very good claims, although probably no better than price to chance.  

Charlie Appleby has Wild Crusade making his debut. This son of Dubawi is out of a Listed winner and she has been the mare to a couple of exceptional talents in Yabir and Wild Illusion, both won over a million. This colt could hold claims, especially if priced 11/4 and less sp. Few win when priced over 8/1+. 

Yummylicious has raced twice for John & Thady Gosden although has a wide draw, which may not be a problem over this trip but never ideal on a turning track. In addition, is one of three fillies against a field of colts. Even with a sex allowance, it is always a slight negative for a filly to race against bigger, stronger foe. This daughter of Dubawi steps up in distance after a debut of 7f and a bigger second start when stepping up to 1m 1/2f. A fair hope although the draw and a filly against the colts is a negative. 

John Gosden fields two debutantes in the Cheveley Park Stud owned Homeric and Mariinsky in the Godolphin silks. He is a trainer who can win with debutantes at bigger odds.

Simon Crisford's Benzine can go well on debut at a price although they are more likely to be placed than win.   

Other horses to consider are Rendition & Maytree Respite

Summary: An interesting race. Last Ammo deserves respect but no price, although the stats suggests a leading chance. Wild Crusade may have claims, especially if strongly backed. Yummylicious has hopes although a filly against the colts is a concern for me. John Gosden is no stranger to a second or third string winning so Homeric and Mariinsky hold some interest. Could an outsider win? Rendition & Maytree Respite are worth a closer look. As is Benzine who has each way claims. Last Ammo has the best chance but no price and I wouldn't be betting. 

A watching brief. 

Note: At the time of writing Last Ammo was 1/1. At biggest, touched 4/1 on the exchanges. The reason why trying to write a post is so difficult considering this was post late in the day, which just proves the point.


Source: Racing Post

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