Wednesday 4 August 2021

5:45 Yarmouth Racing Tips (4th August)

An interesting EBF Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 6f on good going. 

Eight two-year-olds take part: three juveniles with racecourse experience and five debutantes from leading stables. 

Princess Shabnam is held in some regard by connections and done little wrong in two runs so far. Sean Woods doesn't have the biggest string of two-year-olds but seen to good effect early season with the like of General Panic and Meng Tian. I'd be confident that this bay daughter of Gregorian is the best two-year-old in the stable. She's a battling type who tried hard and it was a decent effort last time out at Newmarket when a narrow loser to Frankella at Class 2. That level of ability is plenty good enough to take most maidens. She is probably price to chance and should make the most of her experience against a few well-bred debutantes who may be wiser for the outing. 

It's worth noting Red Joan who was a 9/2 chance in the same race at Newmarket. This daughter of Showcasing was similarly priced on debut but too experienced to do herself justice with a slow start and then a little too keen. This 180,000g yearling is a good-looking filly and she may be a little better than seem so far. There's little doubt she went a stride too fast when finishing behind Princess Shabnam and if settling isn't without a hope. It's always slightly concerning betting on this type of horse because if keen again you have little hope and being her third start she may be a better candidate for nursery races. However, I wouldn't simply right off her chances because she was well beaten last time out. 

Archie Watson hasn't seen the triumphs of last season with his string of two-year-olds who are clearly not as talented as previous years. Aunt Bethany is sired by Cotai Glory out of a winning mare and 55,000g breeze-up purchase. Watson has his horse fit and ready so if up to winning on debut should go well. The betting is the best guide to her chances today. If priced under 5/1 I would expect a decent run. If weak in the betting, she is more likely to hit the frame. 

William Haggas does well at Yarmouth, with debutantes finding the winner's enclosure. Perfect News is an exceptionally well bred filly sired by Frankel out of a very talented mare, trained by William Haggas, Besharah, who won at Group 2 and contested Group 1, and placed in the Cheveley Park Stakes. Both horses are in the ownership of Sheikh Rashid Dalmook Al Maktoum. The betting is the best guide to her chances although Haggas can be pretty hit and miss with two-year-old making their racecourse bow. From a statistical point of view, she is much more likely to be placed. However, with such a pedigree you are always ready for a few fireworks. 

Roger Varian has had a pretty poor year with his two-year-olds. Many have disappointed but a few have found the winning post in these last three weeks. Ruggles is a home bred from The Gredley Family. This daughter of Exceed And Excel is out of a winning mare. Varian does well at this course. If priced 9/1 and less SP may come into calculations but presently a little weak in the betting. In general, the debutantes have very good place claims but if priced in double figures I would be surprised if she wins. 

Basholo is a £60,000 yearling purchase in training with Brian Meehan. He's had a pretty quiet year with his two-year-olds. In the ownership of KHK Racing Ltd who have a number of talents with many and varied handlers. Meehan's debutantes often need the run but he is a trainer who can go well with horses priced 20/1 and less. I get the feeling this daughter of Caravagio will need the run and I'd take a watching brief. 

Token Trader is best watched. 

Girl Inthe Picture will do better in nursery races. 

Conclusion: Princess Shabman sets the standard and a pretty straightforward horse who runs to the line. There's a chance she will be slightly outpaced in the early stages and run on and could well take some stopping. Red Joan is a lovely-looking filly who hasn't been seen to her best. If settling could hold each-way claims and may even have a fighting chance against the favourite. However, you are pushing your luck because if she doesn't settle you will see a similar performance to the last two races where she hasn't finished her race. Aunt Bethany is probably the most likely of the debutantes from a statistical point of view. If fancied in the betting has respectable claims. Perfect News is a very interesting filly but the stats suggest she is more likely to be placed than win. The others are best watched unless there is very good money. Not the type of race I would bet in myself. I'd have to go with Princess Shabnam if pressed but wouldn't rule out Red Joan as a live each-way chance. 

Full result: 

Source: Racing Post

Author: Jason Coote

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comment. All spam will be removed.