Wednesday 4 August 2021

2:40 Yarmouth Racing Tips (5th August)

I really should have a day at Yarmouth. 

A 6f (6f3y) British Stallion Stud EBF Novices Stakes (GBB Race) (Class 4) (2yo) on good going. 

A fascinating race. 

Dig Two is probably the best two-year-old we have seen enjoying the sea air at Great Yarmouth. With the burden of win penalties of 11lb, some may wonder if he's been eating too many doughnuts. If you see candyfloss around his chops you know where he's been before the start. There is little doubt Hugo Palmer's son of Cotia Glory is the class horse of the field and if racing off level weights would likely sail past these like Nelson with the smell of gunpowder in the air. This two time winner, runner-up at Listed class and collected the wooden spoon when finishing last in the July Stakes (Group 2) but not beaten far. With an official rating of 96 we have a talented two-year-old dropped in class to make it three wins from six starts. At the time of writing, Dig Two is priced 10/11. Will this 11lb welterweight be enough to give the opposition a fighting chance? 

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise. 

There are two or three horses in this race that may be capable types. 

City Runner is no slouch for Brian Meehan. In fact, I'm pretty sure this grey colt in the familiar Manton Thoroughbred silks is up to winning and better than we have seen. He was fancied in the betting on debut at Windsor and a combination of inexperience and bumping into a talented winner [Orazio] saw him finish a creditable second leaving the feeling there would be better to come second start. He was a market drifter when heading to Salisbury second time out when stepping up to 7f. This son of Caravaggio is a straightforward horse who travelled well and put down a decent challenge in a hotly contested race. He was there with every chance at the furlong pole before tiring in the closing stages. There's a chance he could be slightly outpaced dropping back in trip but should finish his race. Looks the type to hold respectable each-way claims. 

I'm quite interested in Rizg. To be fair, Roger Varian has had a pretty dire season with his juveniles which is always a slight concern when things haven't been going well and a number of debutantes have failed to shine. All these factors have to be taken into consideration especially with horses making their racecourse bow. This chestnut son of No Nay Never out of a winning mare cost 85,000g at the yearling sales and in the ownership of Imad Alsagar. The betting is key to this colt's chances. If priced 5/1 and less SP, it would give added hope. I would consider this one of Varian's better juveniles but with such a poor season it does bring thoughts of limitation. If drifting to double-figure odds I'd leave well alone. The downside with betting on any debutante is that it can be hard work and inexperience can finish the best of juveniles. The concern here is that to be a big threat he will need to be strongly fancied in the betting, the downside with that is the possible lack of value. A horse I would respect but whether I'd like to bet I'm not so sure. 

Irish Millions hails from a stable that does well at Yarmouth. However, the Haggas debutantes can be pretty hit and miss and statically price to chance at best. 

Mick Channon has struggled with a depleted string of two-year-olds in recent seasons. When you think back to the good old days he really is a shadow of his former self. Pneumatic races in the ownership of the trainer and holds an entry for the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) which may give this son of Churchill some hope of ability. This colt isn't fancied in the betting which suggests he will be better for the run. Very few of Channon's debutantes win at double-figure odds, although it isn't impossible. However, I would use that betting guide as a fair assessment of any hopes. This year's two-year-olds have been disappointing and failed to deliver which tempers enthusiasm. 

Thunder Valley is a big price and would need to be substantially backed to figure. 

Experience is always an advantage and Michael Bell does well at the seaside track. Haarar was a big price on debut and showed little. May have claims if seriously backed but would need to be in single-figure odds to register. 

The others looked best watched. 

Conclusion: A tricky race in ways. Dig Two has the class and proven ability. Even with the winner's weight burden I wouldn't right off this horse. In fact, from a study I run horses with win penalties when fancied in the betting have a very good strike rate. However, whether you think it is a 50% strike rate for an even money shot is a matter of opinion. If betting, I would hope this colt has a major drift in the market to eek out every bit of value. I get the feeling Rizg will run a big race but the stable two-year-olds have been very disappointing this season. And betting on debut at short odds isn't always the most pleasurable of bets to watch. The safest option is probably City Runner as a viable each-way alternative. I think the stable rate this colt more than the ability we have seen so far but he probably isn't any world beater. Again, I'd rather be getting near double-figure odds [exchanges] and cover the place. If he gets in a battle with the favourite and comes second best you may see him unplaced which is always a fear when you are banking on a place at worst. If betting, I'd either have a small each-way bet on City Runner or half a win on the favourite and Meehan's and have two shots rather than one.

Full result: Racing Post

Author: Jason Coote

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