4:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (21st December)

Quite an intriguing stakes race. 

Not the type of race to go crazy over, although from a speed angle I'm very interested in seeing how Bryan Smart's Instinction goes. This daughter of Brazen Beau is very fast if not a little headstrong. However, she fairly flew home last time out over course and distance. A double penalty isn't easy to shrug off. Gianluca Sanna takes off a handy 7lb (as he did last time) and will be looking forward to this return. Instinction has been consistent in her five races to date and ran well when competing at Listed class at York in the Marygate Stakes. She looks the type to live on her nerves but could well cruise along at the front and it will be a matter of whether she stops rather than the others catch her. The type of horse to win well or finish unplaced. I am excited to see a bold show and hope Crossfields Racing have another winner. 

Kaboo is a short price. This son of More Than Ready has always been held in high regard at Spigot Lodge, and I'm sure on the gallops one of the better two-year-olds for Karl Burke, racing in the familiar silks of Nick Bradley Racing 49 & Mrs Burke. Very few juveniles make their debut at Listed class, and he showed up well. However, this strong colt, was a little too keen to do himself justice when contesting pattern class at Sandown and Goodwood. Then he had a massive drop in class and won nicely at Wolverhampton. He's run over five furlongs on all four starts to date. Kaboo is one of those horses who could flourish and go back into a higher grade or one who slightly struggles with exuberance (rather than temperament). I think connections would have been at pains to get him to settle and be more professional since his last victory. To be fair, I think today will be a good measure of future goals. I must admit, I wouldn't be betting at odds of 5/4. This race sets a pretty stiff task and he wouldn't want to be keen as it will be a strength to finish with vigour if Instinction leads (as I'm sure she will) and folds (only time will tell).

Alicia Choice is a very well bred daughter of Dark Angel out of Queen Kindly who won at Group 2 and an exceptional talent. She has the advantage of less weight, but the disadvantage of inexperience, which makes life difficult over this flying five furlongs. Kevin Ryan is no stranger to debut winners and he may well fancy the chances of this March foal. However, she will need to have plenty of ability and more importantly professionalism. A slow start could be a disaster, unless the speedsters really blow a gasket. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at relatively short odds (9/2). 

Sassy Rascal is a small filly who has won and shown a fair level of ability. She has been known to get a slow start which isn't a positive against this type of field. She is very small and I just think others make more appeal. 

Similarly, Lucy Lulu has proven herself to be a gutsy filly who made a winning debut and consistent even in defeat. She was put in her place behind Instinction last time when beaten by six lengths. She looks the type to hit the frame but may struggle to win. 

I think Top Notch Tommy with be outpaced. 

Richard Fahey fields two horses from his racing club. He is a handler who can win at big odds on debut so cannot be written off. However, Olivia's Choice and Hello Power would need to be fighting fit and talents to win on debut. 

Waverley Star and Mad Artymaise are best watched. 

Conclusion: A trappy looking race. Instinction will make this something of a spectacle, especially if she is allowed to shoot clear of the field. She has much more pace than these and it is a matter of whether she can defy the double penalty. The classic easy winner or disappointment. If you bet each-way you are looking for trouble. I hope she goes well and hangs on for a win. Kaboo could be a real powerhouse if connections have him at best. That's something of an unknown and reason why I wouldn't bet at short odds. If he's keen it could be a difficult race to win. If these two talents disappoint, then we may have a bit of a surprise winner. I'd have to take a watching brief but will be cheering home Instinction, especially if she holds a six-length advantage at halfway. 

Good luck to all. 

Author: Jason Coote

Tuesday's Racing Tips (21st September)

1:20 Beverley - 

Interesting to see how Jame's Tate's Stylish Icon goes. This bay filly was fancied to go well at Goodwood on debut but a slow start didn't help and after showing pace dropped back to finish sixth. I'd expect this filly to show more in this banded race. Dropping back from 6f to 5f may be a positive although there is always a slight concern a horse may be outpaced. It is best to consider the trainer knows best as if they don't it doesn't give us mere mortals much hope. The major concern is a wide draw. It might not be a problem with experience on side but it is a stumbling block. From a statistical point of view, Stylish Icon has very good claims. However, these juveniles often either win or unplaced which suggests a straight win if betting. With odds about 4/1 it's a fair price if not overly generous. I'd be tempted to wait and see if this horse drifts at some point to get that little extra value. 

6:20 Newcastle - 

An interesting if not complicated race. Sea King steps up in distance. He's a battling type and ran a sterling race last time before paying the price for a 2f battle. An out and out galloper he may well appreciate this extended trip. I have an eye on Mark Johnston's Pons Aelius who did little on debut at Goodwood when making his debut at Class 2. It was a dire performance but I often say the worse a horse looks on debut the better they are. This colt is very well bred and may well bounce back. He was priced 9/2 on his debut and you can't imagine he was fancied in the betting for no reason. Added to that point, Johnston has given this horse a couple more Class 2 entries which suggests there is some ability. I think the betting will tell the score. If Pons Aelius has a real hope he is likely to be backed from bigger odds. I would say, if he is priced over 9/1 I would think it is a bad sign and leave well alone. Ideally, he will be substantially backed and fancied in the market. Time will tell. Unless you are betting on the exchanges I wouldn't take a punt. I will try to get double-figure odds (15) and hope the money comes. If not, I'd lay the bet and watch. 

5:00 Newcastle - 26th October 2020

An interesting early evening race at the home of the Northumberland Plate. You could be thinking you're having a laugh. It's a nine runner affair with three grand prize money! I can’t argue with that, to be honest, but what’s interesting is we see two Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum newcomers go head-to-head here and both are well-regarded plus a few decent looking newcomers and a Gosden colt who brings good form to the table. What more can we ask for? Let's look closer at a few of the main challengers. 

The final lot of the opening day of the October 2019 Tattersalls sales book 1 saw Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum get the cheque book out and write a cool 1,000,000 guineas and purchase a lovely looking son of Dubawi. The horse in question is MANASSAS who comes with big boots to fill. This bay colt born on May 22nd 2018, is a son of Dubawi, out of unraced mare Without You Babe. Manassas has a lot to live up to being a half-brother to a few exceptional performers in the family already. 

The Frankel John Gosden colt Without Patrol is one offspring who has raced at the highest level throughout his career winning the St James's Palace Stakes as a 3-year-old and since moved to America with Chad Brown and is running as good as ever finishing third in the Group 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland this month. Won on debut at Newcastle as a 2-year-old.

Another Without You Babe offspring is She’s Got You who hasn’t quite hit the heights of Without Patrol but was placed in pattern races last year and will also be running future races in America with Chad Brown. The future is bright for Manassas but will this be a learning experience or will he know his job straight away, with Atzeni choosing Manassas over the other Sheikh runner that’s a positive for me. 

The other Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum runner also comes with a nice home reputation after being entered in a couple of decent looking races but not running. MOVIN TIME is a bay colt who was born 29th April 2018 and was bought for 170,000 guineas and is trained by Roger Varian. The Fastnet colt is a half-brother to another Roger Varian filly Mot Juste who was no slouch herself winning the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Goodwood as a 2-year-old. Another useful looking colt who should be noted for the future. 

REBEL'S ROMANCE is a son of Dubawi out of mare Minidress who only ran four times coming fourth in the Oh So Sharp Stakes. Offspring include the Frankel Saeed bin Suroor filly Dubai Beauty who didn’t quite hit the heights that were expected after a promising debut win at Newmarket in 2018. Charlie Appleby has only had a handful of 2-year-old runners here - one was Moonlight Spirit who made a winning debut back in November 2018 - he went on to race at a high level. I'm pretty sure Rebel’s Romance will know his job here. 

MERITORIOUS for the John Gosden yard brings decent form to this already fascinating race. The Make Believe bay colt was born 13th February 2018 and was purchased for 65,000 guineas. The first foal of mare Make Merry. Meritorious made his debut in a hot maiden at Newmarket back in July when never involved, next time out the Gosden colt took a big step in the right direction when finishing second to the Appleby trained Mystical Dawn with the O’Brien trained Bolshoi Ballet back in third (won next timeout). Should be bang in the mix again here and as we all know John Gosden has a great strike rate here at Newcastle. 

Just time for a couple of words about the TIO MIO trained by Archie Watson, before I slip into the land of nod. Watson had a pretty good strike rate here last year and the owner Mr Arjun Waney does interest me. Archie is known for his debut winners but has been a bit slacking this year for whatever reason. One to watch unless seriously backed. 

Conclusion: Bloody tough race that’s my conclusion, but seriously the Gosden likely favourite has experience on his side here but these newcomers could be decent. I will take a watching brief but hope MANASSAS can run a promising debut. Thanks for reading and stay safe.

Tuesday's Racing Tips (22nd October)

Just a quick post. 

Taking a look at Tuesday's two-year-old racing action. 

1:40 Yarmouth - 

Testing going. Not my favourite medium to find winners. A 0-75 nursery over 6f 3y. From a significant entry point of view, a couple of these may be of interest. George Scott's Dragon Command has won a couple of races and a determined horse. A winner at Claiming class last time out. Difficult to assess whether this 7f on soft ground will be too much of a test of stamina. 

Karl Burke's two-year-olds have been in fine form. Seven Emirates has always been held in some regard by connections but been disappointing. Has taken time to appreciate what racing is all about and a little weak in ways. The first try at nursery class may show more today. 

Personally, I would take a watching brief. 

2:15 Yarmouth - 

Once again a Burke runner catches the eye. From a statistical point of view Made For All has decent claims. Ideally, this filly would be much better bet if drifting in the market. 

It is worth watching the betting as this may be revealing for few of these - helping pinpoint potential improvers or weak links. Lady Tati didn't show a great deal on debut but if fancied in the betting may well have each-way claims. If very weak in the market best watched. 

Lady Light cost a packet at the yearling sales fetching 850,000 euros and in the ownership of China Horse Club International Limited. Unless seriously fancied in the betting, I find Michael Bell's debutant are more likely to be placed than win. 

I would definitely let the betting settle before placing a bet. 

2:35 Newcastle - 

Another tough-looking race. From a significant entry and betting point of view, I would be looking at Grand Bizarre and Carlos Felix. I am pretty confident both will run well. The latter, trained by David Simcock, could well be a worthy each-way option to the favourite if prices allow.    

2:50 Yarmouth - 

Nine fillies take part over this mile. 

Another trappy-looking affair with a selection of leading trainers and high-profile owners. Once again, I would let the betting settle down before considering what may happen here. The market may help disregard a couple of lesser lights. 

The betting suggests it is out of six horses. 

Too Big To Fail looks the type to enjoy a test of stamina and has valuable experience after making her debut at Nottingham. Mark Johnston's filly ran on well that day in what looked a fairly competitive race. I can see her going well. However, there may be some opposition. 

John Gosden unveils a daughter of Frankel, a homebred in the ownership of A E Oppenheimer. Frankly Darling should be respected as her trainer does well at this course, especially if short in the betting. Has fair each-way claims if prices allow. 

Combine has been given a Class 2 stakes entry for Hugo Palmer. The betting should tell the story for this horse's chance. 

Similarly, David Simcock has Float racing in the familiar silks of Qatar Racing Limited. 

Cabaletta is well owned and trained. 

This looks a difficult race to assess at the time of writing and even when the betting settles it may well be worth taking a watching brief. 

Best bets on the day:

2:15 Yarmouth - Made For All 
2:35 Newcastle - Carlos Felix (only if drifting to each-way odds)

Posted: Jason Coote