4:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (21st December)

Quite an intriguing stakes race. 

Not the type of race to go crazy over, although from a speed angle I'm very interested in seeing how Bryan Smart's Instinction goes. This daughter of Brazen Beau is very fast if not a little headstrong. However, she fairly flew home last time out over course and distance. A double penalty isn't easy to shrug off. Gianluca Sanna takes off a handy 7lb (as he did last time) and will be looking forward to this return. Instinction has been consistent in her five races to date and ran well when competing at Listed class at York in the Marygate Stakes. She looks the type to live on her nerves but could well cruise along at the front and it will be a matter of whether she stops rather than the others catch her. The type of horse to win well or finish unplaced. I am excited to see a bold show and hope Crossfields Racing have another winner. 

Kaboo is a short price. This son of More Than Ready has always been held in high regard at Spigot Lodge, and I'm sure on the gallops one of the better two-year-olds for Karl Burke, racing in the familiar silks of Nick Bradley Racing 49 & Mrs Burke. Very few juveniles make their debut at Listed class, and he showed up well. However, this strong colt, was a little too keen to do himself justice when contesting pattern class at Sandown and Goodwood. Then he had a massive drop in class and won nicely at Wolverhampton. He's run over five furlongs on all four starts to date. Kaboo is one of those horses who could flourish and go back into a higher grade or one who slightly struggles with exuberance (rather than temperament). I think connections would have been at pains to get him to settle and be more professional since his last victory. To be fair, I think today will be a good measure of future goals. I must admit, I wouldn't be betting at odds of 5/4. This race sets a pretty stiff task and he wouldn't want to be keen as it will be a strength to finish with vigour if Instinction leads (as I'm sure she will) and folds (only time will tell).

Alicia Choice is a very well bred daughter of Dark Angel out of Queen Kindly who won at Group 2 and an exceptional talent. She has the advantage of less weight, but the disadvantage of inexperience, which makes life difficult over this flying five furlongs. Kevin Ryan is no stranger to debut winners and he may well fancy the chances of this March foal. However, she will need to have plenty of ability and more importantly professionalism. A slow start could be a disaster, unless the speedsters really blow a gasket. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at relatively short odds (9/2). 

Sassy Rascal is a small filly who has won and shown a fair level of ability. She has been known to get a slow start which isn't a positive against this type of field. She is very small and I just think others make more appeal. 

Similarly, Lucy Lulu has proven herself to be a gutsy filly who made a winning debut and consistent even in defeat. She was put in her place behind Instinction last time when beaten by six lengths. She looks the type to hit the frame but may struggle to win. 

I think Top Notch Tommy with be outpaced. 

Richard Fahey fields two horses from his racing club. He is a handler who can win at big odds on debut so cannot be written off. However, Olivia's Choice and Hello Power would need to be fighting fit and talents to win on debut. 

Waverley Star and Mad Artymaise are best watched. 

Conclusion: A trappy looking race. Instinction will make this something of a spectacle, especially if she is allowed to shoot clear of the field. She has much more pace than these and it is a matter of whether she can defy the double penalty. The classic easy winner or disappointment. If you bet each-way you are looking for trouble. I hope she goes well and hangs on for a win. Kaboo could be a real powerhouse if connections have him at best. That's something of an unknown and reason why I wouldn't bet at short odds. If he's keen it could be a difficult race to win. If these two talents disappoint, then we may have a bit of a surprise winner. I'd have to take a watching brief but will be cheering home Instinction, especially if she holds a six-length advantage at halfway. 

Good luck to all. 

Author: Jason Coote