Friday & Saturday's Thoughts (9th August)

A quick recap on Thursday's blog. 

Lord Of The Lodge made a competitive race look easy when making all to win by 5-lengths. The disappointment for me was the Richard Hannon trained No Show who did exactly that and finished fifth. Throne Hall was my fancy in the 16.00 at Haydock and after some support in the market the Kevin Ryan trained colt ran a promising race to finish a close third and should come on for the experience. Master McGrath won well at Sandown with another tracker Colonel Whitehead again finishing third at 25/1 for trainer Heather Main. 

Lord Of The Lodge bolts up in impressive style to take the British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes at 3-1 for @karl_burke 👏👏 pic.twitter.com/8vy3wOTzzz

— Haydock Park Races (@haydockraces) August 8, 2019

Not much jumping out at me this weekend so I may do a small Trixie on these three over the next few days. 

18:10 Haydock 09 Aug 2019 

Only six runners go to post here which is disappointing because I do love an each-way bet. On the face of it, Unresolved faces an uphill task after a disappointing debut at Sandown last month. Unresolved is an £85,000 Frankel bay colt who is trained by Mark Johnston and owned by Saif Ali. Unresolved was away quick on debut and led until weakening dramatically the final furlong and a half. I am hoping he needed the run that day and today he will show improved performance. Mark Johnston has another Frankel colt called Fred who was also fancied on debut but finished last before an improved performance to win the second timeout. He also trains a Frankel filly called Frankel’s Storm who also disappointed on debut but finished second on her next start. Some support will be the key to her chances.  

15:45 Newmarket 10 Aug 2019 

Nine runners go to post in what looks a nice race. My fancy Dark Lady is a well-bred Dark Angel grey filly who is trained by Richard Hannon and owned by Cheveley Park Stud. Dark Lady showed plenty of promise on debut when finishing second to the nice Archie Watson filly So Sharp. She made no mistake second time out when easily winning at Lingfield by 5-lengths. Her third race was the Keeneland Group 3 Stakes at Ascot which saw her finish fourth in what was another professional display. Watching the race again she looked to be staying on well and the extra furlong will hopefully bring some more improvement. The race has some nice fillies in and one danger looks to be UltraViolet who was very impressive on debut and has been given a host of Group entries since her debut, which is always a good sign. 

18:15 Lingfield 10 Aug 2019

I am going to give the Richard Hannon chestnut colt Always Fearless the benefit of the doubt here after what was a disappointing run last time out. An expensive purchase for the King Power Racing Team. In fact, this Camacho colt was bought for 270,000 gns in October last year. No show on his debut when not fancied at 8/1 but his second outing saw a much-improved effort when keeping on to finish third to the Mark Johnston colt Fred. That wasn't a bad race, to be honest even though it was a bunch finish that effort should see him with a great chance to break his duck in what doesn't look the strongest race here. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Thursday's Thoughts (8th August)

A few races of interest today. I will detail some of the horses I have noted in my trackers.

14:30 Haydock 08 Aug 2019 

Nine horses go to post in this British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes. 

I backed Lord Of The Lodge when he won on debut at Ayr back in May. As you know I do love Karl Burke 2-year-olds. Lord Of The Lodge is a nice looking Dandy Man bay colt who is owned by Elaine Burke. Back down in grade today, after not being disgraced in Group and Listed races, and with an apprentice on board Lord Of The Lodge should be more at home here.

Centurion Song looks a nice type for Brian Meehan. Has run well in both races to date and was made favourite for his last race at Newbury. Beaten by the Richard Hannon-trained Hard Nut that day, Centurion Song stayed on without threatening the winner. The second that day was Commit No Nuisance, who was disappointing the other day at Lingfield. Centurion Song has a Gimcrack Group 2 Stakes entry and will have to be involved here if he is to be considered at York. 

No Show is a Showcasing colt for Richard Hannon and owned by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum. This 110,000 gns purchase has a lovely pedigree. Drops down a furlong after not seeing out the 7 furlongs at Sandown 2 weeks ago. He was pretty keen in the early stages of that race but looked to be coming to win his race and quickened up nicely before tiring late on. I expect No Show to be involved at the finish today and put in a more professional performance. 

16:00 Haydock 08 Aug 2019 

Throne Hall is a beautiful homebred Kingman colt for the Kevin Ryan yard and will be hoping to start his career with a win. I never like backing first time out horses as it's like their first day at school and anything can go wrong. Kevin Ryan thinks highly of this bay colt and the market should prove the key to his chances today. 

18:10 Sandown 08 Aug 2019 

Four trackers in the one race is a bit of a nightmare, so I probably won't be betting on this contest but I will write down my thoughts on the four I have noted. 

Colonel Whitehead ran a superb race for Heather Main. I had noted that she had given the Colonel a Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes entry before his last race and was tempted to do an each-way bet but didn't bother. Available around 50/1 early on in the day he ran a great race to finish third at 25/1. 

Spurofthemoment runs here for Charlie Hills. A 25/1 shot on debut and not fancied, this Brazen Beau filly was quickly away and showed some good speed until weakening the final furlong. The ground was soft that day and the fact that she cost £100,000 and was given an early Class 2 entry by Charlie Hills makes me think she could improve today if well-supported. 

Master McGrath looks another nice type for Kevin Ryan. Must have been catching pigeons on the gallops before debut as he was made 11/10 favourite. Ran a sound race and finished second, only tiring late on. Dropping down a furlong should bring more improvement.

Last but not least Vasari for Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore. Another who drops back in distance after a promising debut at Chelmsford. Had a class 2 entry at Chester but didn't run. A race to watch I think as looks difficult to pinpoint a strong bet.

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Trust in Karl Burke (Plus Reviews, Previews and Tips)

I will start today's post by declaring my love for trainer Karl Burke, but as my mentor and friend Jason Coote have written once or twice before if you can’t make money backing Karl Burkes 2-year-olds then you need to pack in betting. After a quiet April Karl has come to life in May with three 2-year-old winners and if you were to look closely at the results you would see that money came in on all three and my latest tracker was another prime example of this. 

Bet Review:

With two trackers in the same race on Wednesday I had to make a decision and especially since I was putting my bet on the night before, as always it's a gamble not being able to see any market movers and at the minute I am playing a dangerous game, I am sure my good fortune must be coming to an end soon. The Mark Johnson trained Frankel colt Fred was too short for me, so I took the gamble and done the Karl Burke-trained Dandy Man colt Lord of the Lodge who had been given a couple of Class 2 entries but didn't run in both. 

Lord of the Lodge opened up at 9/2 (I took 8/1 the night before) and was 4/1 on the off, which added to my confidence and as with Rayong Ben Curtis gave him a great ride and stayed on to win by just under 2-lengths and give me my fourth 2-year-old winner in a row. I have mentioned before the market is crucial and if Lord of the Lodge had drifted in the betting then I would only have myself to blame. I won’t be giving up on Fred just yet even though he finished last and will be checking the market on his next run. 

Looking through the cards on Saturday there is not much jumping out at me, to be honest, I like the midweek smaller meetings when you can often find a little gem to bet on. As a racing fan I would have loved to have gone to my local racecourse Haydock on Saturday to see the talented Calyx, but as you must be aware by now it’s marathon day Sunday so, I will have my feet up resting and hopefully the father-n-law can get a few nice pictures for me as he’s off to Haydock on a jolly boys outing. 

Timeform Early Declaration Alert 

16:15 York 25 May 2019: War Storm had an entry for the Class 2 race at Chester today but is running here instead. 

15:10 Goodwood 25 May 2019: Silent Wave had an entry for a Class 2 race at Ascot on May 1st but didn’t run. 

16:05 Chester 25 May 2019: Endowed had a couple of early entries, first was the Class 2 race at Ascot in May and second was today's race at Chester. 

The Saturday Trixie: 

Week five and things are getting desperate as I still haven't had a winner, Aaron is storming clear with three wins out of four selections and Sam still can’t get one to stay on its feet.

Aaron: El Astronaute 3.45 York: Front runner who won 2 big field handicaps last season at this track, also finished 2nd in this race last year. 

Craig: War Storm 4.15 York: It was a close call between Endowed at Chester and my selection War Storm. This Archie Watson trained Due Diligence Colt ran a pleasing debut at Wolverhampton finishing third of eleven behind the Godolphin pair, backed in that day from 6/1 to 9/2 shows he was expected to run a nice race. I would like to see some support tomorrow and hopefully, he can get his head in front, the danger looks to be Dutch Decoy. 

Sam:5:00 Cartmel - Canyon City - been keeping good company and Bryony Frost remains in the saddle to keep the partnership after their latest victory, making the partnership 3/4. The long trip might stretch him a bit but won a tad cosily last time and every chance they will make it 2 on the bounce. Thanks for reading and good luck for the weekend.

Brilliant Rayong Keeps the Purple Patch Going

It doesn't happen very often but when it does you have to enjoy the moment. It’s a great feeling getting a few winners under your belt and your confidence is high, I know it probably won't last long and I have probably put the kiss of death on my good run but this season I had a few nice doubled priced winners and to be honest, I don’t feel like I'm doing anything different from last year. A few of my trackers have come up trumps with a couple of 14/1 winners and an 11/1 winner already. I guess this season I have tried to be a bit more patient and few times trust my instinct which leads me on nicely to my betting reviews. 

Bet Reviews:

In Saturday's post I mentioned a few trackers I had running, well, in fact, three in the same race which is always a dilemma, so the one that stood out was Misty Grey who Mark Johnston had given an early entry in the Class 2 Lily Agnes race at Chester but didn't run him. I looked back at his last race, he was up with the pace until tiring and eased down. An early morning price of 14/1 did not fill me with confidence and also no sign of a market move, so I just trusted my instinct and put my each way bet on. I also done a win bet on Oso Rapido for the O’Meara yard who’s juveniles have been running well this season. 

To be honest, Misty Grey had the race won two furlongs out when leading from start to finish to win by an impressive 7-lengths. I will also be looking out for Oso Rapido who was well-backed and ran a race full of promise. 

On to Monday and I mentioned three horses on my Twitter feed that I liked the look of, first up was a horse called Rayong for one of my favourite trainers and jockey combinations, this is what I wrote on one of my profitable courses for flat jockeys post way back in March (When I think of Ben Curtis I always think of Carlisle racecourse so it’s no surprise to see it’s a profitable racecourse for him, so over the past three years in maiden and novice races only, see him have 31 rides and winning 14 with an impressive 45.2 percent win strike rate and an even more impressive 341.6 per cent win return at starting price, look out for Ben Curtis riding for trainer Karl Burke). 

I put my bet on Rayong the night before and took 7/2 which he actually ended up after opening up at 9/2. This Mayson colt is owned by the powerful King Power Racing team who have transformed racing of late by buying lots of quality horses. Watching the race, Rayong looked professional from the off, broke well and tanked along before Ben Curtis took it up a furlong out before staying on well, he looks a nice recruit to the Karl Burke yard and should come on a lot after a great debut. 

Next up was Mark Johnston trained Rose of Kildare at Redcar who ran in a Class 2 race at Chester and brought some good form to the table, she won easy enough at 6/5 and another winner in the bag. Last up was a tracker from last year, the Clive Cox-trained Eligible who had a Group 2 Champagne Stakes entry as a 2-year-old but never ran. I noticed he had been gelded and took a gamble and done a each way bet at 20/1 and was pleasantly surprised to see him backed into 8/1. I think he ran a great race to finish a close third and looking like he could win at one stage, I will keep an eye on him for next time. 

The One That Got Away 

I caused a bit of a stir on social media a couple of weeks back when my post about the brilliant Aidan O’Brien stringing us along, and to be honest, I had a good chat with a few people who thought the headline was unfair, and I was told he doesn't have second or third strings, I take that on board but looking at the stats I said I would follow his less-fancied 2-year-old horses in Group races, well I bloody missed one as I didn’t even check the Irish racing on Sunday and surprise surprise Etoile the less fancied of the O’Brien pair won at 12/1, gutted as it would have been a great start. 

Timeform Early Declaration Alert

2.00 Ayr 22 May 2019: Fred had an early entry for a Class 2 race at York but never ran. 

2.00 Ayr 22 May 2019: Lord Of The Lodge had two early Class 2 entries, one at York and one at Chester. 

Thanks for reading and good luck.

If you ever have any questions email me at craignewton175@gmail.com.