Craig's Betting Blog - 2YO Horse Racing Tips : In It To Win It Team

4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes - Bay Bridge

Luxembourg and Bay Bridge appear to be the two horses to focus on here. 2021 Derby hero Adayar could be in the mix as well, if he could find back to his very best. However, he hasn't achieved any speed rating of real substance ever since his famous Epsom victory, which is a concern given the consistency of strong performances by the other two.

My Prospero has hinted at the ability to land a big pot but would have to run a huge career-best. Therefore Luxembourg and Bay Bridge are the two to beat. They share the strongest and most recent form as well, thanks to their recent battle in the Tattersalls Gold Cup.

Luxembourg was impressive from the front as he made all the donkey work and kicked on strongly to get the better of Bay Bridge. However, it's certainly fair to say that he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.

Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn't enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.

On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He's 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exception colt the vibes from the yard portrayed always.

Can Bay Bridge make up the half a length gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome.

The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that's confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance.

The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn't like properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that's what we'll have on Wednesday.

Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge's biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year.

He's a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.

On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view - hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.

Bay Bridge 11/5 5th

15.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes POTAPOVA EW

Looks quite intriguing to me and quite high in price at 20/1 to even further heighten my interest in her.

She reappeared at Goodwood in a listed race as favourite and was found to have an irregular heartbeat, though it was highly unlikely she was going to be able to produce her best on the heavy ground that day.

Onto the last day at Epsom in a G3 won by Prosperous Voyage who opposes her again. I watched the race and felt that even though PV won with something in hand considering she was slowly away, they have not gone very quick early on and it tells late on with a sprint to the line. The last one home still had a 109% speed finish. Potapova was caught out flat footed once in the straight and did not appear to handle the turn that well either. She responded well to the urgings of Ryan Moore there but was a bit tight for room at the finish and her chance had gone, still she was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths and she shows plenty to work on visually considering the scenario.

Her win last year in the G3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last summer is actually among the best form on offer in this field, beating the subsequent winner and third in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes, Fonteyn & Grande Dame with PV back in fourth. She gave her two rivals a weight for age 6lb that day.

Also another huge huge factor for me is the record of the connections in this particular race. Stoute has won the race four times before albeit not since 2014. Cheveley Park Stud, who own this filly have won the race five times and twice before with the legendary Stoute, the last time he won it in 2014 with Integral. They appear to target the race and last won it with Indie Angel two years ago, though trained by the Gosdens.

I think she showed plenty last time on a track possibly not to suit her and returning to a stiffer one mile over the straight track will benefit her here. I got one pace map wrong for whatever reason on day one but even if not breakneck again here, the straight track ought to negate that and Kingscote is a smart enough jockey to have learned what happened in the opening race today.

Potapova 16/1 5th

Finishing positions: 0/5/5

Advised bet Each way Trixie

Away from the Trixie I have a few trackers

18.10 Ascot

Barnwell Boy: Johnston

Fusterlandia: Hannon

Maximum Impact: Haynes

Sergeant Wilko: Ryan

14.55 Hamilton

Bitter Moose: Palmer

Sayidh Kingman: Johnston

19.20 Newcastle

Blue Prince: Fahey

Mariko: Ryan

17.26 Ripon

Mammy: Bell

Indispensable: Haggas

Good luck thanks for reading.

Monday, 19 June 2023

Royal Ascot Racing Tips - Day One (20th June)

A disappointing weekend for the blog, said it a lot lately but pretty sure it will pick up soon. We have a fantastic week ahead with Royal Ascot sod it let's have a few fun selections and see if we can bag a winner or two.

CraigNewton

15.05 Ascot 20 June

Have a few decent trackers here all big prices, Cuban Thunder for the Amo team who started fav both starts and won last timeout at York, that was a class 2 that day and won pretty easily, a 40/1 shot, looks a bit big to me. Emperor's Son, another who looks above average. Packard and The Camden Colt, a couple of nice ones for Hannons 80 and 50s.

The one I'm going to take a chance on is from last year's winning yard Archie Watson who won it with Bradshell, ARMY ETHOS is an 120,000 gns Shalaa colt, must have been flying at home sent off 5/4 and only needed keeping up to his work and finished the job easily, been given a Group 1 Keeneland Stakes entry by connections who won this race last year. Time wasn't brilliant but hopefully he can improve and place at 16/1.

Army Ethos 20/1 2nd

ASCOT 610 - RULING DYNASTY - hit the tracker when in a different county to the others at Haydock, giving a stone and a half to the second and sauntering home. Charlie Appleby has an outstanding record placing his charges first time in HCP’s @geegeez_uk - unexposed with scope, he looks a decent price to take on the Mullins pair with (who likewise step up in trip) GL GL!! 🍀🤞🍀🤞🍀

Ruling Dynasty 6/1 Unp

14.30 Queen Anne Stakes NATIVE TRAIL EW

Obviously a G1 to kick things off and it is not easy to be confident about one in my opinion. There is no stand out though a few are clear on form and ratings. Looks as if Modern Games and Inspiral will battle it out for early favouritism.

Looking at stats and trends for all races during Ascot blended with overall form is the way I will have a go. A key stat could be that 16/21 have already won a G1. That already narrows this field somewhat leaving Inspiral, Modern Games, Native Trail and Angel Bleu.

With these you have the front three in the market and a 66/1 ‘outsider’

The one that stands out to me considering the prices is NATIVE TRAIL. I had to rewatch his frustrating reappearance defeat at 8/11 to Mutasaabeq who also conceded 3lb to him in the G2 Bet365 mile at HQ. He looked heavy to me and as if he would come on for the run and it is also worth noting that a lot of horses were slow to come to hand this season due to the late arrival of spring. He was not given an overly hard time and the likely scenario here will suit him better with what is likely to be a scorching pace. He has the overall form to compete with these and can show it if he can return to anything like his best.

Native Trail 13/2 8th

4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes: Mostabshir

Unexposed Mostabshir is one I have been keenly following ever since his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.

His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time. That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, as he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he'd have won by half a furlong, perhaps.

The pace wasn't truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn't do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.

Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It's a significant step up from a Novice race at York.

On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a huge eyecatcher. It's also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.

He's bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His dam’s offspring often improve with time. At given prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.

Mostabshir 16/1 6th

Finishing positions: 2/0/8/6

Advised bet: Each way Lucky 15

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Saturday, 17 June 2023

Weekend Selections Team Inittowinit (17th June)

Here we go again. United Front started the Trixie off in good style last week but we just couldn't get another winner with it.

I've been in shocking form on here but actually had a few alright bets up this week. Saturday is always hard when it comes to 2yo racing and tomorrow is no different.

Craig Newton

15.00 Bath BINT HAVANA GOLD 20/1 4th

Go big or go home I say, well the price of my selection is big not sure about the stake. I've taken 20s about this Richard Hughes filly who has had one run at Newmarket when finishing near the back. Not the most expensive filly at £38,000 owned by Jaber Abdullah. Made her debut in a class 2 at Newmarket, drawn on the far side and up with the pace until winner Persian Dreamer sprinted clear and won easy, Bint coasted home under James Doyle, wasn't a bad race with Dorothy Lawrence coming second in the Margate Stakes. Ideally needs strong support here and that's the worry when putting something up before the race.

Bint Havana Gold 20/1 4th

200 YORK – DREAM HARDER won on his first start for Ian Williams in December and has improved and been consistent since. A good few runs in defeat can be upgraded including last time out when coming from off the pace at Chester (10.5f), when finishing nicely having had a slightly troubled passage. Previously to that at Lingfield, DH entered the tracker when finishing well, from off the pace in a race that again likely suited those to the fore. Having proved himself versatile in terms of track and the 12f trip, the ground remains a potential question however sire stats suggest its fine and he doesn’t look too have exaggerated an action. Together with the fact that the ground doesn’t tend to be allowed to ride overly fast now, I am hopeful all these boxes are ticked. Alice Stevens is a very capable pilot who rode last year's winner for the trainer (who also saddled the third placed runner in 2021). GL GL !! 🤞🍀🤞🍀

Dream Harder 7/1 2nd

15.25 Sandown HARRY MAGNUS 7/2 6th

A son of Harry Angel that I am tracking since he won a 7f handicap at HQ in April. The form of the race has worked out seriously well with numerous subsequent winners in behind.

He won in decisive fashion from the rear and moved like a well handicapped horse when he was asked to go..doing best of those from off the pace. He is only 4 lb higher here and that looks lenient given the form of that victory.

He did disappoint LTO but had a couple of valid excuses, with the drop to 6f against him, he was not the quickest away and took a bump at the start to add insult to injury. Still despite this, he came with a run and was keeping on after initially being outpaced, when he was hampered late on and the jockey had to leave him alone after that.

He moved in the race like a still very well weighted horse off the same mark as today and the step back up to 7f here is very much in his favour.

This is obviously a step up in grade but he looks out of the majority of them, on the right side of the handicapper and has proven it already, if I draw a line through that last time which is feasible.

A number of these have shown they want a piece of the early action and the pace is likely to be hot which will help this one, judging from the aforementioned victory when winning at HQ so should get a good pace to aim at.

He found plenty after just a couple of reminders and he galloped on resolutely all the way to the line displaying a great attitude when it comes to crunch time so should relish this stiff finish.

Buick who was on for the win has jumped ship now onto the current favourite but Ryan Moore is certainly an eye catching booking nonetheless, when riding for the yard he is 25% 10-40 in the last 5 seasons on turf.

I like his chances here and is backable at a fair price of around 11/2 now. I think he ought to be excused last time and he can prove he is a progressive horse going forward particularly in a race like this with numerous questions surrounding the others in my opinion.

HARRY MAGNUS 7/2 6th

4.10 Bath: Lunario 15/2 5th

Lunario was arguably an unfortunate 3rd last time at Lingfield, when beaten in the tightest of finishes in a photo that could have gone either way. On a different day he could have been the winner. Fair arguments can be brought forward for the notion that he was the ‘moral winner’ – if such a thing would exist – and he should be able to make amends here on Saturday.

He meets Gone once again, the winner last time at Lingfield, but on better terms. Because Gone has gone up a couple of pounds, whereas Lunario remains on the same mark. Over 7.5 furlongs at Lingfield last time out I felt the performance warranted an upgrade, though. And if that proves correct, the colt could be well-handicapped.

There he was slightly bumped by a rival as he left the gates. Still somewhat green and raw, he was niggled behind the leading horses, possibly even a bit flat footed, but then made huge progress on the outside once pulled out for a clear view of the final furlong.

Even though he seemed destined to run home and grab the W, he didn’t help his case when hanging badly to the left, as he continued showing greenness.

He steps up in trip, albeit ever so slightly. On pedigree there’s no doubt he’ll stay a mile, in any case.

It’s also worth pointing out that at Lingfield he achieved a 65 speed rating, despite everything that went wrong on the day. Therefore, he must have a massive chance to win, if he runs straight to the line.

LUNARIO 15/2 5TH

Advised bet: Lucky 15

Finishing Positions: 4/2/6/5

Good luck and thanks for reading.

Saturday, 10 June 2023

Weekend Selections: Teaminittowinit (10th June)

Last weekend didn't go to plan for the team, first off my selection which was a non runner then a few places and sixth.

Pretty sure one of these weeks we will hit the jackpot. Just the three this week.

SAT 240 BEV – UNITED FRONT was thought worth a sit by Buick LTO and acquitted himself behind a well backed, likely improving, Gosden filly. Although better on sand, he is clearly capable of a win on turf in this grade against more exposed opposition. Ugo Gregory will likely go forward and give a lead along with Outrun the Storm (both are dangers) and there are a couple of others that could push the pace. From stall 2, UF is well placed to get a good position just in behind and Murphy will be keen to go one better than his championship rival. Floral Splendour is one I have my eye on and can’t quite work out if she’s a potential winner being warmed up, a moody filly or just not very good? Have a look to see what you think. Ascot Adventure and Beauty Choice can’t be discounted but do not inspire right now, Satin Snake has it to prove on turf and Miss Britain can certainly be involved but has a tough draw to give a PB froM. GL GL !!! 🍀🤞🍀🤞

United Front 5/2 1st

3.20 Catterick: Fiftyshadesofred 7/1 6th

Fiftyshadesofred looks seriously well-handicapped if she can put her best foot forward. She’s a tricky filly, yet she has run two strong speed ratings in two of her last three races, both over 7 furlongs.

Last time at Ayr she overcame a sluggish start and went forward to lead at a red hot pace. She found plenty under pressure and was only beaten late by two rivals from off the pace.

Before that she didn’t stay a mile but two runs back ran seriously well at Chelmsford over 7 furlongs. That looks like her trip, and the fact she ran to 65 and 64 speed ratings now the last two times over this trip, on two different surfaces, gives her form credibility.

It should be ideal that there’s a lot of pace to be expected here in this race. She has a good draw to follow it, as long as she starts well. That should help her to settle.

William Pyle is a competent 7lb claimer. This weight allowance can only help; on the other hand she’s a tricky ride. So some risks are attached.

16.45 Haydock JUST BRING IT 15/8 6th

The favourite in this and completely unoriginal but feel he is worthy of that. Looking at his last run, he was held up off the pace and responding to pressure when asked for his effort but found a wall of horses in front of him and the jockey had to stop riding.

Once he had the gap to come, he did come with a flurry but the bird had flown and nothing got into it. He showed plenty to that point and looked like he was moving well when his effort came to a halt.

That was the C2 Silver Bowl Handicap over this course and distance and he should find this a lot easier now dropped to a C4 off the same mark as for that effort.

This looks a very winnable affair to me for him and if I was not in such bad form, I would contemplate adding to my usual stake for this one as he strikes me as a well handicapped horse on the back of that effort and there is an obvious pace target in here with prominent runners aplenty.

He did show signs of a standard Cox runner who was keen early on and learned to race with experience, he certainly would not want to be in front too long as he was on penultimate run. Looks set up nicely for him here and all he needs to do is settle off the pace and kick when required like he did last time out. A repeat performance of that effort last time out should see him getting competitive here, let alone the obvious scope for improvement.

Advised bet: Trixie

Finishing Positions: 1/6/6

Thanks for reading and good luck.

Saturday, 27 May 2023

Weekend Selections: Team In It To Win It (27th May)

Here we go again, not much went right last week but we never give up!

Let's look at this week's selections:

CraigNewton -SAYIDH KINGMAN 9/1 6th

14.10 York 27 May

Bit of a dilemma here as my selection from the other week Boxing Alex runs at Chester, had a speculative each way at 20s. I'm sticking with my first thought the Charlie Johnston Kingman filly SAYIDH KINGMAN who is the only filly in the field, normally a negative for me but the 75,000 gns yearling is pretty well liked at the Johnston yard. I do enjoy taking on the short priced favourites but The Line did race with promise on his debut at Ascot when finishing third. The step up in distance should suit my selection after her debut race at Newmarket was at the minimum distance. It looked a decent race with Soprano winning and few potential nice ones in behind. Sayidh Kingman needs to settle better for sure and hopefully Daniel Muscutt can settle her into the race. Tictyboo another who should come on for the Tinkler yard.

4:05 Chester – BOARDMAN 6/1 1st

I went with Paws For Thought on his last start here over CD but, on that occasion it was a lower grade (C4) and he was likely to get it easy upfront (which he did but got caught having slightly overdone the fractions). He is likely to get more pressure on his lead from Percy’s Lad, Red Mirage, Roudemental from the low berths and Street Kid probably goes forward from wide. As such, the race could be set up ideally for BOARDMAN to take it for the third year running. Looking like coming to the boil in his penultimate race behind Rainbow Fire at Haydock (a decent contest), he didn’t enjoy the best of trips LTO where he finished behind a few of today’s rivals (where the race had a different shape to it). Phil Dennis is a capable pilot and connections are likely very aware of how to play this from stall 8 and see Boardman back at his best.

16.10 Haydock BIG R 100/30 2nd

Caught the eye to quite an extent LTO when reappearing at Salisbury. Dropped in and wide and then made some stealthy headway to be in a challenging position but he was given the most considerate ride late on, shaping as if he would come on for the run. The form of the race has worked out fairly well already with Snuggle, who was all out trying to win the race with this one in, winning next time out. Snuggle was only in front nearly 2 lengths albeit giving BIG R six pounds but the comparison in effort is extreme.

He appeals to me as one who could be well handicapped and it could be extremely generous that he dropped a lb for that last run when you consider the form of his last AW start as a 2yo when he pulled clear with two others. The winner has since come out and flopped in a C2 at Newmarket off 90 and the third, just behind him is now rated 82 and won his last two including his handicap debut off 70 where he bolted up. In theory BIG R is fairly weighted here off 69 on that evidence and eye catching that Wiliam Buick is booked for the ride, as he is 12-46 26% for the yard on turf in the last five seasons.

The more I watch the run from last time, the more I like him. If he can take a step forward from that then he should be going well in my opinion. He strikes me as a horse that is better than 69.