15.05 Ascot 20 June
Have a few decent trackers here all big prices, Cuban Thunder for the Amo team who started fav both starts and won last timeout at York, that was a class 2 that day and won pretty easily, a 40/1 shot, looks a bit big to me. Emperor's Son, another who looks above average. Packard and The Camden Colt, a couple of nice ones for Hannons 80 and 50s.
The one I'm going to take a chance on is from last year's winning yard Archie Watson who won it with Bradshell, ARMY ETHOS is an 120,000 gns Shalaa colt, must have been flying at home sent off 5/4 and only needed keeping up to his work and finished the job easily, been given a Group 1 Keeneland Stakes entry by connections who won this race last year. Time wasn't brilliant but hopefully he can improve and place at 16/1.
Army Ethos 20/1 2nd
ASCOT 610 - RULING DYNASTY - hit the tracker when in a different county to the others at Haydock, giving a stone and a half to the second and sauntering home. Charlie Appleby has an outstanding record placing his charges first time in HCP’s @geegeez_uk - unexposed with scope, he looks a decent price to take on the Mullins pair with (who likewise step up in trip) GL GL!! 🍀🤞🍀🤞🍀
Ruling Dynasty 6/1 Unp
14.30 Queen Anne Stakes NATIVE TRAIL EW
Obviously a G1 to kick things off and it is not easy to be confident about one in my opinion. There is no stand out though a few are clear on form and ratings. Looks as if Modern Games and Inspiral will battle it out for early favouritism.
Looking at stats and trends for all races during Ascot blended with overall form is the way I will have a go. A key stat could be that 16/21 have already won a G1. That already narrows this field somewhat leaving Inspiral, Modern Games, Native Trail and Angel Bleu.
With these you have the front three in the market and a 66/1 ‘outsider’
The one that stands out to me considering the prices is NATIVE TRAIL. I had to rewatch his frustrating reappearance defeat at 8/11 to Mutasaabeq who also conceded 3lb to him in the G2 Bet365 mile at HQ. He looked heavy to me and as if he would come on for the run and it is also worth noting that a lot of horses were slow to come to hand this season due to the late arrival of spring. He was not given an overly hard time and the likely scenario here will suit him better with what is likely to be a scorching pace. He has the overall form to compete with these and can show it if he can return to anything like his best.
Native Trail 13/2 8th
4.20 Ascot: Group 1 St James's Palace Stakes: Mostabshir
Unexposed Mostabshir is one I have been keenly following ever since his impressive debut (and sole) run as a juvenile last year at Kempton where he quickened nicely and overcame a wide draw.
His eagerly anticipated seasonal reappearance in the Craven Stakes was disappointing, but he left that run firmly behind when winning a competitive contest at York the next time. That day he finally looked like the exciting colt we saw on the Kempton polytrack again, as he produced a scintillating turn of foot to win easily by five lengths. If ridden out he'd have won by half a furlong, perhaps.
The pace wasn't truly on that day, nonetheless an ordinary horse couldn't do what he did there, I firmly believe. The form also looks strong thanks to the runner-up and fourth who went on to win subsequently.
Nonetheless, on form terms and speed ratings much more is needed here against the best of the three-year-old milers. The likes of Chaldean and Paddington are Classic winners, and Isaac Shelby was a runner-up in the French equivalent. It's a significant step up from a Novice race at York.
On the other hand, he had only three career runs so far and in two of them he was a huge eyecatcher. It's also fair to assume that possibly needed the run in the Craven and possibly enjoyed the fast ground at York as well. With that in mind, any significant rain at Ascot could be a concern.
He's bred to improve with age and experience, though, and I feel there is an awful lot more to come. His dam’s offspring often improve with time. At given prices he looks clearly overpriced given the likely upside.
Mostabshir 16/1 6th
Advised bet: Each way Lucky 15
Thanks for reading and good luck.
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