Wednesday 21 June 2023

Royal Ascot - Day 2 Team Inittowinit (21st June)

Oooooh so close but no cigar for my selection Army Ethos who ran an incredible race to finish second to the O'Brien hot pot. I think the draw done my horse and might have even won if drawn better. I'm still waiting for my first bloody winner for the team. 

Day 2


14.30 June 21

Archie Watson was the trainer of my selection yesterday and I'm hoping OUT OF THE STARS can go one better and win the Queen Mary Stakes, tough ask I know.  Nice type this Qatar Racing owned filly and a full-sister to Wesley Wards speedster Stars On Fire who won her only race last season. The Zoustar filly started off 8/11 favourite at Kempton and was slowly away, yes it wasn't the best race but we saw the same with Archie's Army Ethos who was beaten narrowly by River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes. Out Of The Stars did pretty much everything wrong, slowly away, ran green, and went wide on the bend, all considering Murphy done well to get her up. The headgear is applied to keep her mind on the job, needs to improve to figure here but at 12/1 I'm hoping she can grab a place. 

Out Of The Stars 14/1 Unp


4.20 Ascot: Group 1 Prince Of Wales's Stakes - Bay Bridge

Luxembourg and Bay Bridge appear to be the two horses to focus on here. 2021 Derby hero Adayar could be in the mix as well, if he could find back to his very best. However, he hasn't achieved any speed rating of real substance ever since his famous Epsom victory, which is a concern given the consistency of strong performances by the other two. 

My Prospero has hinted at the ability to land a big pot but would have to run a huge career-best. Therefore Luxembourg and Bay Bridge are the two to beat. They share the strongest and most recent form as well, thanks to their recent battle in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. 

Luxembourg was impressive from the front as he made all the donkey work and kicked on strongly to get the better of Bay Bridge. However, it's certainly fair to say that he got first run and that was possibly an advantage as Bay Bridge got stuck in a pocket all the way to the two furlong marker and only got out with less than 1.5 furlongs to go.

Bay Bridge had to find his stride quickly, and it was impressive to see how quickly he was able to get into top gear. Yet, there wasn't enough time to run down Luxembourg, though.

On the other hand, Luxembourg may have been too good, anyway. He's 3/3 over the trip now and clearly is the exception colt the vibes from the yard portrayed always.

Can Bay Bridge make up the half a length gap that was between them at the Curragh? Probably. Slightly different track and a different pace scenario can change the outcome. 

The 5-year-old should be in his prime right now. And that's confirmed by the 109 speed rating he ran at the Curragh, and improvement from his a fine 100 performance in the Prix Ganay on his seasonal reappearance. 

The ground has been a hot topic of debate all Tuesday. Bay Bridge probably doesn't like properly fast. Genuine good ground will be perfect, though, and it looks likely that's what we'll have on Wednesday. 

Ascot is the place of Bay Bridge's biggest success, the British Champion Stakes back in October last year. 

He's a highly consistent colt, one who usually puts his best foot forward, and nothing less is expected this time.

On everything we know there is little between Luxembourg and Bay Bridge, the two main contenders, in my view - hence from a price point of view Bay Bridge has to be the logical value choice.

Bay Bridge 11/5 5th


15.40 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes POTAPOVA EW

Looks quite intriguing to me and quite high in price at 20/1 to even further heighten my interest in her. 

She reappeared at Goodwood in a listed race as favourite and was found to have an irregular heartbeat, though it was highly unlikely she was going to be able to produce her best on the heavy ground that day. 

Onto the last day at Epsom in a G3 won by Prosperous Voyage who opposes her again. I watched the race and felt that even though PV won with something in hand considering she was slowly away, they have not gone very quick early on and it tells late on with a sprint to the line. The last one home still had a 109% speed finish. Potapova was caught out flat footed once in the straight and did not appear to handle the turn that well either. She responded well to the urgings of Ryan Moore there but was a bit tight for room at the finish and her chance had gone, still she was only beaten 2 ¾ lengths and she shows plenty to work on visually considering the scenario.

Her win last year in the G3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown last summer is actually among the best form on offer in this field, beating the subsequent winner and third in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes, Fonteyn & Grande Dame with PV back in fourth. She gave her two rivals a weight for age 6lb that day.

Also another huge huge factor for me is the record of the connections in this particular race. Stoute has won the race four times before albeit not since 2014. Cheveley Park Stud, who own this filly have won the race five times and twice before with the legendary Stoute, the last time he won it in 2014 with Integral. They appear to target the race and last won it with Indie Angel two years ago, though trained by the Gosdens. 

I think she showed plenty last time on a track possibly not to suit her and returning to a stiffer one mile over the straight track will benefit her here. I got one pace map wrong for whatever reason on day one but even if not breakneck again here, the straight track ought to negate that and Kingscote is a smart enough jockey to have learned what happened in the opening race today.

Potapova 16/1 5th

Finishing positions: 0/5/5

Advised bet Each way Trixie 

Away from the Trixie I have a few trackers

18.10 Ascot 

Barnwell Boy: Johnston 

Fusterlandia: Hannon

Maximum Impact: Haynes

Sergeant Wilko: Ryan

14.55 Hamilton

Bitter Moose: Palmer

Sayidh Kingman: Johnston

19.20 Newcastle

Blue Prince: Fahey 

Mariko: Ryan

17.26 Ripon 

Mammy: Bell

Indispensable: Haggas 

Good luck thanks for reading. 

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