Tuesday's 2yo Racing Tips (10th August)

A quiet day with a couple of maiden races. 

Value is the keyword for any horse race. Looking at these two races we have very interesting horses but the prices look at slim as Twiggy. 

2:25 Nottingham - 

I'll be surprised if this isn't the classic two-horse race. Typewriter, trained by Andrew Balding, in the familiar silks of Mrs Fitri Hay, was fancied on debut when very inexperienced. Better was seen second time out when stepping up in distance and contesting a Class 2 race at Goodwood. This daughter of Gleneagles was backed and ran a sterling race to finish fourth, behind impressive stablemate Wilderness Girl. 

This step up in distance should help as a test of stamina looks the key. 

The main opposition could come from James Fanshawe's Euraquilo who was well backed on debut and unlucky to meet trouble in running. There was a lot to like about that effort, potential, although the Goodwood race which Typewriter contested was much stronger. 

Fanshawe's two-year-old does have the added vim of very good stats to make this a battle to the line. 

Conclusion: I like both horses but trying to pick between them isn't easy. If one drifted to each-way odds it would be a good bet. However, that isn't going to happen. 

7:35 Lingfield - 

This five furlongs is a pretty hot contest with Willoughby Bay who started her career in a Stakes race worth £25,000 to the winner (seems incredible when many Listed races aren't anywhere near that level). This daughter of Profitable is clearly a talented juvenile and will be heading to Lingfield with hopes of victory. 

It's a similar story with Corazon, trained by George Boughey, who could well have won on debut and sure to improve for that debut effort. 

Once again, these two look a good match and I wouldn't like to pick between them. 

Conclusion: In truth, the only bet I could see today is an each-way double with these four horses. It's interesting how they could be viewed as from a statistical approach I would have to go with Euraquilo and Willoughby Bay. However, with just seven horses in the Lingfield race we are betting two places which isn't ideal. Also, when two horses battle for a win it can often mean the second best tires and finishes out of the frame. At the odds, there seems very little point in betting unless one or two drift markedly which may offer some value. 

Author: Jason Coote

Charlie Hills: 5 Horses to Follow in 2020

This season was always going to be a hard act to follow for Charlie Hills with his 2-year-old horses because 2-year-olds like Phoenix Of Spain don’t come around very often. 

Phoenix Of Spain had a special year in 2018 winning the Group 3 Acomb Stakes then finishing second in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes and the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster. 

As a three-year-old Phoenix Of Spain won the Irish 2000 Guineas at 16/1 on his reappearance. 

This season has seen a couple of nice 2-year-olds come from the Hills stable in Lambourne.

Flippa The Strippa made her debut in a Nottingham Stakes race at the end of April. It was a nice introduction by the Outstrip filly who stayed on nicely to finish third despite not being fancied in the betting. 

Flippa The Strippa went onto win her next race at Chepstow then contested the Listed National Stakes at Sandown. Even though it wasn’t the strongest field Flippa The Strippa won well and picked up some nice prize money too. Not bad considering she cost just £10,000 at the yearling sales. 

Persuasion was bought for 155,000 gns by Peter & Ross Doyle Bloodstock as a foal and sold on to owner Susan Roy for 220,000 gns in 2018. 

The Acclamation bay colt won first timeout at 16/1 and showed the potential that Charlie Hills had seen on the gallops. Persuasion was given some fancy entries this season and ran a great race to finish second in the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket when beaten by Wichita which was no disgrace. 

Persuasion has only had three races and will look to be challenging the big guns next season. 

One horse that has been pretty frustrating this season is DULAS who am pretty sure has ability but also has a few issues. The Raven’s Pass colt was bought for 60,000 gns at the 2018 October Yearling Sale and is owned by Julie Martin & David R Martin & Partn. A big price on debut at Newmarket in a pretty hot race, Dulas was far to green to make any impact and finished down the field. He was entered in the Convivial Stakes at York but was unruly before the start and withdrawn. 

After a long lay off I was pretty sure Dulas would be spot on but again ran to free and blew his chance but having said that the winner that day Highest Ground could be a bit special and has an early entry for the Irish 2000 Guineas next season. Dulas did look to be getting the hang of things late on and I won’t be giving up on the bay colt just yet. 

One more Charlie Hills 2-year-old that looks to be held in high regard is the Mr. Hamdan Al Maktoum filly SHURAFFA. The Shamardal filly was also keen on debut at Salisbury in a Class 2 race. Charlie had given Shuraffa two significant entries before her debut and hopefully, she will improve next season and break her maiden tag. 

See the latest news from Charles Hills stable. 

Thanks for reading and look out for my next horses to follow.

12:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th January)

This looks a weak race. 

Mainly, I will review this race from a statistical point of view. 

In general, these races go to form horses. Stats for debutantes indicate very few horses win over 20/1 so the winning chances of Runcible, Beggarman, Crazy Love, and Misty Girl are slim (unless seriously backed).

Mickey Dripping, cheap purchase. Wide draw on debut. Slow start and looked very inexperienced if not awkward. Pushed along, outpaced, still holding head high and looking difficult to ride. Ran on at the line. [Doesn't inspire confidence and needs to show a lot more].

Glorious Return cost 40,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Johnny Portman often sends his better horses to run at Newbury on debut. This chestnut colt is a fair-looking horse and backed on debut. Showed some pace, but tired out of contention and struggling a long way out over 6 1/2f. Not seen for a long time. Interesting to see if stepping up in distance helps. Portman can win at bigger odds second time out although he has few winners. In fact, his win stats for 13/2 & less sp are very poor. His place stats are fair. One of the more likelier types at speculative odds but needs to improve. 

Stately Home is well trained by James Tate in the familiar silks of Saeed Manana. This grey son of Colodvil cost 20,000 guineas at the yearling sales. The mare looked pretty hopeless. The betting is key for this horse. Tate has very few debut winners over 13/2. If in this best betting guide has decent place claims. However, unless priced 11/4 & less sp they struggle to win. 

Even though the two favourites are no world beaters they most likely set the standard. 

Richard Hughes' Mazikeen looks a professional type of horse. Looks likely to lead. Has to shoulder a win penalty which isn't ideal. Ran out an easy winner last time and has pace to sit handy and most likely try to slip the field on the final bend. The form of her last win hasn't been franked but she did beat them well. Could run a race and may well lead into the final furlong. 

Cable Speed wasn't unfancied on debut and hampered early which wasn't ideal. This 30,000 guinea yearling ran on in half-willing fashion in a Novis Stakes, so this is a drop in class by race type. From a statistical point of view, it has fair win and place claims. The odds aren't giving much away but a horse with the right profile. 

Conclusion: The betting will tell the story for most, especially Stately Home. The betting exchanges suggest he isn't fancied but it is worth noting market moves. Glorious Return may have half a hope if looking for a horse to run a race at a price but needs to improve from his debut effort. The two favourites are professional-looking horses and even though short odds are likely to play a major role. Mazikeen, even with a penalty, is likely to set the pace and may well hold a lead into the final furlong. Cable Speed will improve for his debut and be primed. This is a drop in class. A poor race where most look unlikely to figure. If pressed I would back Cable Speed to win but not a race I would be betting as there is little value.    

Guest post: Jason Coote