Sunday 5 January 2020

12:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th January)

This looks a weak race. 

Mainly, I will review this race from a statistical point of view. 

In general, these races go to form horses. Stats for debutantes indicate very few horses win over 20/1 so the winning chances of Runcible, Beggarman, Crazy Love, and Misty Girl are slim (unless seriously backed).

Mickey Dripping, cheap purchase. Wide draw on debut. Slow start and looked very inexperienced if not awkward. Pushed along, outpaced, still holding head high and looking difficult to ride. Ran on at the line. [Doesn't inspire confidence and needs to show a lot more].

Glorious Return cost 40,000 guineas at the yearling sales. Johnny Portman often sends his better horses to run at Newbury on debut. This chestnut colt is a fair-looking horse and backed on debut. Showed some pace, but tired out of contention and struggling a long way out over 6 1/2f. Not seen for a long time. Interesting to see if stepping up in distance helps. Portman can win at bigger odds second time out although he has few winners. In fact, his win stats for 13/2 & less sp are very poor. His place stats are fair. One of the more likelier types at speculative odds but needs to improve. 

Stately Home is well trained by James Tate in the familiar silks of Saeed Manana. This grey son of Colodvil cost 20,000 guineas at the yearling sales. The mare looked pretty hopeless. The betting is key for this horse. Tate has very few debut winners over 13/2. If in this best betting guide has decent place claims. However, unless priced 11/4 & less sp they struggle to win. 

Even though the two favourites are no world beaters they most likely set the standard. 

Richard Hughes' Mazikeen looks a professional type of horse. Looks likely to lead. Has to shoulder a win penalty which isn't ideal. Ran out an easy winner last time and has pace to sit handy and most likely try to slip the field on the final bend. The form of her last win hasn't been franked but she did beat them well. Could run a race and may well lead into the final furlong. 

Cable Speed wasn't unfancied on debut and hampered early which wasn't ideal. This 30,000 guinea yearling ran on in half-willing fashion in a Novis Stakes, so this is a drop in class by race type. From a statistical point of view, it has fair win and place claims. The odds aren't giving much away but a horse with the right profile. 

Conclusion: The betting will tell the story for most, especially Stately Home. The betting exchanges suggest he isn't fancied but it is worth noting market moves. Glorious Return may have half a hope if looking for a horse to run a race at a price but needs to improve from his debut effort. The two favourites are professional-looking horses and even though short odds are likely to play a major role. Mazikeen, even with a penalty, is likely to set the pace and may well hold a lead into the final furlong. Cable Speed will improve for his debut and be primed. This is a drop in class. A poor race where most look unlikely to figure. If pressed I would back Cable Speed to win but not a race I would be betting as there is little value.    

Guest post: Jason Coote

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