12:45 Pontefract: What Do Betfair Graphs Reveal (19th October)

It's interesting to see how a race pans out on betting exchanges.

I know this is nothing new for many gamblers but it's still interesting to catch a moment in time to see what the Betfair graphs (of the market) reveal for each and every horse in a race. 

To illustrate, we have the 12:45 Pontefract - a 7-runner race over 6f on soft going. Many punters would have had their eye on the odd-on favourite, Out The Hat, trained by Jedd O'Keeffe. This bay gelding had been in decent form, winning well on his second start, and a couple of placed effort before sitting at the top of the betting here although burdened with a win penalty. 

With about 5-minute to the off, almost £350,000 had been wagered on this race. 

With about 80% on the favourite Out The Hat. (You will need to click on the graphic to see it properly). 

At this time, of the £204,871 bet on this market, £166,441 had been wagered on Out The Hat (81.3% of the market).

To be fair, the favourite was quite uneasy in the betting drifting from 4/9 - 8/13f. 

By all accounts, it didn't look the best of contests, and there was money for a number of runners in the field, including the second favourite, Forbidden Secret, trained by Michael Dods. 

This two-year-old had run fair races on his first and second start (if not a little disappointing at Wolverhampton). However, there was some money for this son of Pearl Secret who was as big as 7/1 on the exchanges, before being backed and returned 3/1 with bookmakers. At the time of capturing this graphic £214,757 had been bet and £24,350 had been wagered on Forbidden Secret. 

As it turned out, the horse punters wish they had kept their eye (and their money) on was the winner, Pivoting, trained by Tim Easterby. This son of Charming Thought, racing in the silks of owner/breeders Bearstone Stud Limited saw quite a gamble on this gelding, who had fluffed his lines at Beverley (11/4) when running a sterling race on his second start over course and distance when a well-backed 11/2 shot

(from 9/1). Stepping up to 6f on testing going looked ideal for this easy winner who stormed clear by five-and-a-half lengths. You can see from the graph, that Pivoting touched odds as big as 21/1 (to small change, but fair money for 16/1 - 20/1). Viewing the graph a few minutes before the off, from £227,507 bet on the race, just £9,544 had been wagered on Pivoting, which is just 5% of the market.

Pivoting won well and the ride of Jason Hart may have given this juvenile the edge, saving ground by taking the inner rail, while the rest of the field steered a course to the near-side rail which may have been a disadvantage. Clearly, this was a master move from the jockey who shot clear of the field and wasn't going to pegged backed. 

There was money for a couple of the outsiders, but all in all this was a one-horse race and Pivoting put the others in their place. 

As Hugh, via Twitter detailed, the actual money on Betfair would be half as shown in this graphic. For example, a £2 bet is shown as £4, because it is both a bet and a lay. Also, as many people trade on these markets it is the same money going round and around. So in theory the total money bet would be nowhere near almost half a million point [£455,683]. It could well be the case that original bets account for less than £100,000. It is difficult to calculate but it would be a long way from the sums displayed here.    

Full result: Racing Post 

    

 

  

Exciting Times Ahead For Tim Easterby's Filly (Plus Previews)

14:00 Catterick 03 Sep 2019:

Tracker: Vintage Times. 

Vintage Times could be a filly going places after her latest win. A bargain-basement buys at only £6,000 as a foal by Tim Easterby and the Ontoawinner partnership. The Firebreak filly is a half-sister to Vintage Brut who won three times as a 2-year-old including the Rockingham Listed Stakes at York and is now owned by King Power Racing team. I was actually watching Vintage Times odds going down before her last race at Ripon when she was backed from 4/1 to 13/8 favourite and the result was never in doubt as she led from start to finish. I think Ripon was the perfect track and the front running tactics jockey David Allen used won her the race. The second Hot Affair won easily next timeout and if the same tactics are used am sure she can run her race despite the 7 lb penalty. 

14:45 Goodwood 03 Sep 2019: 

Trackers: Festival Day, Lady Lynetta. 

Festival Day. Highly thought of Dubawi filly who is owned by Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum. Has two significant entries. The market will be a guide on how she will run today and even if she disappoints Festival Day is one to keep an eye out for in the future. 

Lady Lynetta didn't look like a 50/1 shot when running a promising race first timeout at Newbury. The 80,000 euro Richard Hughes filly showed good speed and was still in with a chance until tiring the last furlong. Has an entry for the Shadwell Rockfel Group 2 Stakes. Not an easy race to be confident with the John Gosden favourite also looking decent but has no significant entries as yet. I will be waiting for the betting to settle. 

17:25 Salisbury 03 Sep 2019: 

Trackers: All You Wish, Lost Empire. 

Andrew Balding’s All You Wish cost £60,000 as a yearling in 2018. The Showcasing colt was given an early entry for the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at York but didn't run. Andrew Balding has a pretty decent record at Salisbury with his 2-year-olds in Maiden and Novice races when priced under 15/2. One to keep an eye on with the betting on debut. 

Lost Empire for the Harry Dunlop Stable. The 50,000 euro Footstepsinthesand colt ran a promising race first timeout at Newbury at the beginning of August, I don't think that was the strongest race as the winner D Day has been well-beaten since. Even so, it was a promising run and is entitled to come on for the run. Harry Dunlop gave Lost Empire an entry for the Denford Listed Stakes at Newbury, but he didn’t take part. 

18:00 Salisbury 03 Sep 2019: 

Tracker Areehaa. 

The hot favourite Star In The Making looks to have a great chance to get her first win here but you can never discard the chances of a Michael Stoute 2-year-old. Areehaa is a well-bred Kingman filly and a half-sister to 1-mile winner Mahaarat. Sir Michael doesn't have the best record at Salisbury So I will take a watching brief unless well-supported in the Market. 

15:20 Goodwood 03 Sep 2019: 

Trackers: Celtic Art, Maori Knight. 

(No write-up) 

I can't finish without mentioning an amazing performance by the Charlie Appleby trained Ghaiyyath (pictured) who took apart the field in the Group 1 Longines Grosser Preis Von Baden in Germany on Sunday and looks to be heading to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe next month. 

Group Horse actually identified this Dubawi colt as an exciting prospect way back in 2017.

Good luck and thanks for reading.