Monday, 19 October 2020

12:45 Pontefract: What Do Betfair Graphs Reveal (19th October)

It's interesting to see how a race pans out on betting exchanges.

I know this is nothing new for many gamblers but it's still interesting to catch a moment in time to see what the Betfair graphs (of the market) reveal for each and every horse in a race. 

To illustrate, we have the 12:45 Pontefract - a 7-runner race over 6f on soft going. Many punters would have had their eye on the odd-on favourite, Out The Hat, trained by Jedd O'Keeffe. This bay gelding had been in decent form, winning well on his second start, and a couple of placed effort before sitting at the top of the betting here although burdened with a win penalty. 

With about 5-minute to the off, almost £350,000 had been wagered on this race. 

With about 80% on the favourite Out The Hat. (You will need to click on the graphic to see it properly). 

At this time, of the £204,871 bet on this market, £166,441 had been wagered on Out The Hat (81.3% of the market).

To be fair, the favourite was quite uneasy in the betting drifting from 4/9 - 8/13f. 

By all accounts, it didn't look the best of contests, and there was money for a number of runners in the field, including the second favourite, Forbidden Secret, trained by Michael Dods. 

This two-year-old had run fair races on his first and second start (if not a little disappointing at Wolverhampton). However, there was some money for this son of Pearl Secret who was as big as 7/1 on the exchanges, before being backed and returned 3/1 with bookmakers. At the time of capturing this graphic £214,757 had been bet and £24,350 had been wagered on Forbidden Secret. 

As it turned out, the horse punters wish they had kept their eye (and their money) on was the winner, Pivoting, trained by Tim Easterby. This son of Charming Thought, racing in the silks of owner/breeders Bearstone Stud Limited saw quite a gamble on this gelding, who had fluffed his lines at Beverley (11/4) when running a sterling race on his second start over course and distance when a well-backed 11/2 shot

(from 9/1). Stepping up to 6f on testing going looked ideal for this easy winner who stormed clear by five-and-a-half lengths. You can see from the graph, that Pivoting touched odds as big as 21/1 (to small change, but fair money for 16/1 - 20/1). Viewing the graph a few minutes before the off, from £227,507 bet on the race, just £9,544 had been wagered on Pivoting, which is just 5% of the market.

Pivoting won well and the ride of Jason Hart may have given this juvenile the edge, saving ground by taking the inner rail, while the rest of the field steered a course to the near-side rail which may have been a disadvantage. Clearly, this was a master move from the jockey who shot clear of the field and wasn't going to pegged backed. 

There was money for a couple of the outsiders, but all in all this was a one-horse race and Pivoting put the others in their place. 

As Hugh, via Twitter detailed, the actual money on Betfair would be half as shown in this graphic. For example, a £2 bet is shown as £4, because it is both a bet and a lay. Also, as many people trade on these markets it is the same money going round and around. So in theory the total money bet would be nowhere near almost half a million point [£455,683]. It could well be the case that original bets account for less than £100,000. It is difficult to calculate but it would be a long way from the sums displayed here.    

Full result: 


    



 


  



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