2:20 Catterick Racing Tips (14th July)

Just a quick post. 

Ten two-year-olds take part over the 5f on good to soft going. 

A tricky race with a winner hoping to defy a penalty, form horses and debutantes. 

Wee Loch Lass has been very consistent in her five starts. With an official rating of 71, it suggests that David O'Meara's grey filly is capable but limited and the win penalty could well hinder her chances. This daughter of Gutaifan is versatile and shown her worth on all surfaces. You can guarantee she will run her race and could well make the most of her experience and sets the standard. Whether you would feel confident betting at 6/4 is a matter of opinion. I can't say I would be betting but respect this filly.

Looking at the field in opposition they have something to prove. 

One horse I'm pretty sure is capable of better is Jedd O'Keeffe's Mystic Moonshadow. This daughter of Showcasing showed good pace on testing ground on debut, a fair race. She tired in the last half furlong after, perhaps, going a stride too fast. I thought she held claims second start when heading to Catterick on faster going. It was a dismal effort. I don't think the wide draw helped and trying to get into a decent position may have paid the price. The performance went beyond that point and she may have disappointed. With being on the sidelines for 40 days, you have to consider there was an issue which brings hope for a better run today. If drifting to a double-figure price (possible on the exchanges) may hold some value. It's always something of a double gamble hoping a horse can put a disappointing effort behind them. However, I'm pretty sure connections fancied their chances last time out over course and distance and that may be seen today. The wide draw is a slight concern but I'd expect Mystic Moonshadow to be ridden prominently and as long as they don't go a stride too fast Bez's Racing Club may have a smile on their face. 

Michael Dods is a very good trainer and one of few handlers who slips under the radar. They can often go well at big odds and often enjoy a bit of give underfoot. Act Of Passion is well owned and sired by a classy sire out of an unraced mare. Dods' juveniles have been running quite well this season with Red Warning winning and Vaccine looking a potentially smart performer. His debutantes have fair statistics at just about any odds and they hold fair each-way claims. 

Karl Burke has been in good form all season with his two-year-olds. To be fair, his debutantes can be a bit hit and miss. Taj Alriyadh is a son of Mehmas and recent breeze-up purchase at £19,000. It will be interesting to see how he performs today. 

Conclusion: Not the most inspiring race. It could well be a pretty weak affair which may lend itself for Wee Loch Las who is a winner but vulnerable with a penalty.  There doesn't look too much meat on the bone at short odds. I'm half interested in Mystic Moonshadow but, as with all bets, the decision is and should be made dependent on value. Jedd O'Keeffe's charge is a speedy type which is often a bonus on this course and shouldn't be troubled by testing ground. I would be looking for odds of about 10/1 on the exchanges and feel this filly is the type to either win or disappoint so I would be tempted to go for the straight win rather than an each-way punt. Act Of Passion could go well and looks the type to hit the frame. You could say the same about Taj Alriyadah although I don't think Burke's debutantes offer too much value. I'd side with Mystic Moonshadow but there are a few questions to answer.

Author Jason Coote

Result: 

Source: Racing Post 

1:20 Catterick Racing Analysis (4th June)

1:20 Catterick  - 

I must apologise for posting this late. Been out and about on my bike and just got back and decided to write a quick post. 

Instinction, trained by Bryan Smart, has proven a fair level of ability and it's only burden here is a four-pound win penalty. In truth, this weight will probably not make a big difference to a bold show although the price is  pretty short and there doesn't look much value. 

Karl Burke has a few talented juveniles in his ranks and Illustrating is in the ownership of Clipper Logistics who are no stranger to talented two-year-olds. This bay daughter of Showcasing was withdrawn from the sales so most likely a private sale. The mare was a very talented horse in training with Charles Hills. She won four times from eleven starts including a Group 1, 2 & 3. There's been money for this March foal who could go well. The stable can be a little hit and miss with their fancied debutantes but I'd expect a decent run from her today. Whether she will be experienced enough to beat Instinction is up for debate. A relatively wide draw may be a negative and she wouldn't want to be tardy from the stalls because Smart's winner is likely to make all. 

Another daughter of Showcasing is Archie Watson's Red Showgirl racing in the familiar silks of The Hon R J Arculli. The winning mare was similarly owned, a winner and Listed placed. With the two favourites being so strong in the market, she is priced at 12/1 which may indicate the competitive nature of this race or a slight concern she isn't quite up to the standard of those mentioned. A prime draw may be a blessing. Most of Watson's horses lead so it will be interesting if this filly follows suit. I'd expect to see some money for this horse if fancied to win and there may be an option of a preemptive gamble. In general, winners from this stable are shorter odds. 

Jedd O'Keeffe is an under rated trainer and his two-year-old can go well on their second start. Mystic Moonshadow showed good pace on debut before tiring in the closing stages. Another daughter of Showcasing she cost 27,000 guineas when purchase at the yearling sales by her trainer. A wide draw is a slight concern but she looks the type to lead or sit in behind. She would definitely need to improve on her debut effort and be fitter today. There is a chance she could touch shorter odds in running and may have each-way claims. If seriously weak in the betting I would watch. 

Conclusion: 

It looks a race which revolves around the favourite. Instinction sets the standard and her ony burden is a four-pound penalty and a couple of races. She is likely to put down a professional effort and experience may be the key to winning. I couldn't bet at such short odds as there is little meat left on the bone. If you fancy an opponent you could well have a price on side if you hope to back a talented horse or hope the favourite regresses or disappoints. I have little doubt Illustration should be respected but the price on offer seems on the short side and a wide draw could be a stumbling block. You wouldn't want to give the favourite an easy lead as that could spell disaster. You may well get bigger odds in running. Mystic Moonshadow has experience on side and could well lead. Whether she is good enough to win is another matter. Improvement is needed and a wide draw could see those early exertions to gain a position take their toll in the closing stages. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote