4:00 Newcastle Racing Tips (21st December)

Quite an intriguing stakes race. 

Not the type of race to go crazy over, although from a speed angle I'm very interested in seeing how Bryan Smart's Instinction goes. This daughter of Brazen Beau is very fast if not a little headstrong. However, she fairly flew home last time out over course and distance. A double penalty isn't easy to shrug off. Gianluca Sanna takes off a handy 7lb (as he did last time) and will be looking forward to this return. Instinction has been consistent in her five races to date and ran well when competing at Listed class at York in the Marygate Stakes. She looks the type to live on her nerves but could well cruise along at the front and it will be a matter of whether she stops rather than the others catch her. The type of horse to win well or finish unplaced. I am excited to see a bold show and hope Crossfields Racing have another winner. 

Kaboo is a short price. This son of More Than Ready has always been held in high regard at Spigot Lodge, and I'm sure on the gallops one of the better two-year-olds for Karl Burke, racing in the familiar silks of Nick Bradley Racing 49 & Mrs Burke. Very few juveniles make their debut at Listed class, and he showed up well. However, this strong colt, was a little too keen to do himself justice when contesting pattern class at Sandown and Goodwood. Then he had a massive drop in class and won nicely at Wolverhampton. He's run over five furlongs on all four starts to date. Kaboo is one of those horses who could flourish and go back into a higher grade or one who slightly struggles with exuberance (rather than temperament). I think connections would have been at pains to get him to settle and be more professional since his last victory. To be fair, I think today will be a good measure of future goals. I must admit, I wouldn't be betting at odds of 5/4. This race sets a pretty stiff task and he wouldn't want to be keen as it will be a strength to finish with vigour if Instinction leads (as I'm sure she will) and folds (only time will tell).

Alicia Choice is a very well bred daughter of Dark Angel out of Queen Kindly who won at Group 2 and an exceptional talent. She has the advantage of less weight, but the disadvantage of inexperience, which makes life difficult over this flying five furlongs. Kevin Ryan is no stranger to debut winners and he may well fancy the chances of this March foal. However, she will need to have plenty of ability and more importantly professionalism. A slow start could be a disaster, unless the speedsters really blow a gasket. I wouldn't be tempted to bet at relatively short odds (9/2). 

Sassy Rascal is a small filly who has won and shown a fair level of ability. She has been known to get a slow start which isn't a positive against this type of field. She is very small and I just think others make more appeal. 

Similarly, Lucy Lulu has proven herself to be a gutsy filly who made a winning debut and consistent even in defeat. She was put in her place behind Instinction last time when beaten by six lengths. She looks the type to hit the frame but may struggle to win. 

I think Top Notch Tommy with be outpaced. 

Richard Fahey fields two horses from his racing club. He is a handler who can win at big odds on debut so cannot be written off. However, Olivia's Choice and Hello Power would need to be fighting fit and talents to win on debut. 

Waverley Star and Mad Artymaise are best watched. 

Conclusion: A trappy looking race. Instinction will make this something of a spectacle, especially if she is allowed to shoot clear of the field. She has much more pace than these and it is a matter of whether she can defy the double penalty. The classic easy winner or disappointment. If you bet each-way you are looking for trouble. I hope she goes well and hangs on for a win. Kaboo could be a real powerhouse if connections have him at best. That's something of an unknown and reason why I wouldn't bet at short odds. If he's keen it could be a difficult race to win. If these two talents disappoint, then we may have a bit of a surprise winner. I'd have to take a watching brief but will be cheering home Instinction, especially if she holds a six-length advantage at halfway. 

Good luck to all. 

Author: Jason Coote

1:20 Catterick Racing Analysis (4th June)

1:20 Catterick  - 

I must apologise for posting this late. Been out and about on my bike and just got back and decided to write a quick post. 

Instinction, trained by Bryan Smart, has proven a fair level of ability and it's only burden here is a four-pound win penalty. In truth, this weight will probably not make a big difference to a bold show although the price is  pretty short and there doesn't look much value. 

Karl Burke has a few talented juveniles in his ranks and Illustrating is in the ownership of Clipper Logistics who are no stranger to talented two-year-olds. This bay daughter of Showcasing was withdrawn from the sales so most likely a private sale. The mare was a very talented horse in training with Charles Hills. She won four times from eleven starts including a Group 1, 2 & 3. There's been money for this March foal who could go well. The stable can be a little hit and miss with their fancied debutantes but I'd expect a decent run from her today. Whether she will be experienced enough to beat Instinction is up for debate. A relatively wide draw may be a negative and she wouldn't want to be tardy from the stalls because Smart's winner is likely to make all. 

Another daughter of Showcasing is Archie Watson's Red Showgirl racing in the familiar silks of The Hon R J Arculli. The winning mare was similarly owned, a winner and Listed placed. With the two favourites being so strong in the market, she is priced at 12/1 which may indicate the competitive nature of this race or a slight concern she isn't quite up to the standard of those mentioned. A prime draw may be a blessing. Most of Watson's horses lead so it will be interesting if this filly follows suit. I'd expect to see some money for this horse if fancied to win and there may be an option of a preemptive gamble. In general, winners from this stable are shorter odds. 

Jedd O'Keeffe is an under rated trainer and his two-year-old can go well on their second start. Mystic Moonshadow showed good pace on debut before tiring in the closing stages. Another daughter of Showcasing she cost 27,000 guineas when purchase at the yearling sales by her trainer. A wide draw is a slight concern but she looks the type to lead or sit in behind. She would definitely need to improve on her debut effort and be fitter today. There is a chance she could touch shorter odds in running and may have each-way claims. If seriously weak in the betting I would watch. 

Conclusion: 

It looks a race which revolves around the favourite. Instinction sets the standard and her ony burden is a four-pound penalty and a couple of races. She is likely to put down a professional effort and experience may be the key to winning. I couldn't bet at such short odds as there is little meat left on the bone. If you fancy an opponent you could well have a price on side if you hope to back a talented horse or hope the favourite regresses or disappoints. I have little doubt Illustration should be respected but the price on offer seems on the short side and a wide draw could be a stumbling block. You wouldn't want to give the favourite an easy lead as that could spell disaster. You may well get bigger odds in running. Mystic Moonshadow has experience on side and could well lead. Whether she is good enough to win is another matter. Improvement is needed and a wide draw could see those early exertions to gain a position take their toll in the closing stages. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Author: Jason Coote

Monday's Thoughts (26th April)

It’s difficult to find the motivation to write a post when the weather is beautiful and I can sit in the garden, relax and drink beer while watching the racing. I have had a few 2-year-old winners of late and hope it continues, one that is still annoying me is the Bryan Smart trained Instinction who won at Redcar a few weeks ago. I do like to look at trainer and owner combinations and sometimes it comes off, I might add a few on here just for interest and see how they go, anyway Bryan Smart and familiar owners Crossfield Racing is one combination I like but the draw put me off at Redcar, I did look a bit deeper and one of the top owners at Redcar was Crossfield Racing with six wins out of 32 with a 77 pound profit, but that draw still put me off and the rest is history as Instinction won 33s, that was a killer blow to be honest but it shows these trainer and owner combinations can produce a few winners. 

Looking back at my last blog post it was good to see the Roger Varian trained Third Realm produce a nice performance at Nottingham when winning with a bit in hand, as I had two trackers in the race it was also nice my other tracker Remedium finish second, I had a win on Third Realm and an each way on Remedium at 22s so happy days all day round, the forecast would have been good but can’t be greedy. The writing was on the wall for Claim To Fame with a big drift and was disappointing, but Fahey’s have definitely looked in need of the run this season. Talking about disappointments I didn’t bet on Blue Planet but wow the 1.8 million purchase finished down the field in a lackluster performance at Dundalk. 

15:20 Chantilly (France) 26 Apr 2021 

Now I’m no expert on UK racing never mind French racing but one tracker that I have is the Andre Fabre trained Magic Hour who cost 220,000 euros and comes with a lovely pedigree being a full-sister to Alice Springs who was outstanding for Aidan O’Brien, other siblings include Criteria, Kingston Jamaica and Hence all 101 plus rated. As I said I’m no expert on French racing but watching Magic Hours debut race I thought it was a promising start without getting involved at the finish, I haven’t had time to check the other runners so it’s a stab in the dark that she can be involved here. Time of writing 4/1. 

17:10 Naas (IRE) 26 Apr 2021 

Over to Ireland for a newcomer here who is wearing a first timeout tongue strap. One worry is the first timeout strike rate of trainer Kevin Prendergast who runs HATHLOO here. It could be a race to be wary of and just watch or I may have a very small each way. Hathloo is the son of Awtaad and purchased for £220,000. Trainer Kevin Prendergast thought plenty of this bay colt last season who is out of unraced dam Majestic Jasmine. Hathloo is an interesting type but could need the run here, no support at the time of writing and has drifted from 15/2 to 11s. 

13:50 Nottingham 27 Apr 2021 

Tough looking race this but I do have the Karl Burke trained Pink Storm as a tracker here. A 35,000 gns purchase who ran a promising debut without getting involved, I think betting will be the key here. Anything around 9/2 will be a positive. Amber Dew also looks the type to improve and looks a big danger. I had all intentions of previewing all horses here but times catching up on me. A can’t go without saying a huge well done to Bloodstock Agent Armando Duarte and the William Haggas team who won the Classic Trial at Sandown the weekend with Alenquer. Armando gave Alenquer a favourable mention in his post back in December and it was great to see Alenquer romp home at 25/1. 

Bit of a rush job this, stay safe and thanks for reading.