It’s back! After a week of no flat racing which seemed like forever, by the way, we have what looks like a nice little Novice race to get stuck into. Just on another note as the flat racing will be well and truly over soon this season I will try to find an angle on the Juvenile Hurdlers and the National Hunt Flat races instead of twiddling my thumbs and waiting for the next flat season. I have put a few up on my Facebook page and had two winners so far (beginners luck am sure).
16:45 Wolverhampton 16 Nov 2019:
Twelve declared here in what looks a tricky little Novice Stakes race but as we don’t have many 2-year-old races left I will give it a go.
Godolphin comes here double-handed. First up is the Saeed Bin Suroor Showcasing colt My Vision who cost 88,000gns as a foal and 200,000gns as a yearling. My Vision made his debut here last month and ran a pretty nice race to finish third. Even though the form of that race doesn’t look particularly strong My Vision is entitled to come on plenty for that debut especially as he had a few problems in the stalls beforehand. The fact he was supported from 6s to 4/1 at the off is another positive.
The second Godolphin runner was the Charlie Appleby Dubawi colt Poet’s Mind who also made a pleasing debut first time out here last month when finishing second to Fashion Royalty. Poet’s Mind was the Godolphin second string that day with the other Appleby runner In The Night going off odds on but only finishing fourth. As for Poet’s Mind who took a drift in the market that day, he had a few problems after being hampered early on then running wide on the bend before just failing to catch Fashion Royalty after finishing strong. I imagine Poet’s Mind will be favourite and another who will come on plenty for his debut and has a good chance to get off the mark here.
The 125,000,gns yearling FAVOURITE MOON has already had two runs and improved again the last timeout. The William Haggas trained Sea The Moon colt ran in what looked like a pretty hot race last time out at Newbury when finishing fourth to the Hugo Palmer trained Acquitted. The third that day Mishriff has since come out and won easily so the form looks strong and another who could be in with a chance if taking to the Tapata.
I had an each-way bet on Finely Tuned after getting an early price of 13/2 last time out at Nottingham. The Gleneagles colt was well-supported into 3/1 that day and to be honest, I had given up hope as Finely Tuned looked to get stuck in the mud as the ground at Nottingham was heavy that day. Jack Mitchell didn’t give up and got the Simon Crisford colt going again and ended up just failing to peg back the surprise 50/1 Alan King winner Tremor. My only worry is he could be outpaced again before running on which could be too late by then, we will see.
Last but not least is the John Gosden Dansili colt CELESTRAN who went off at 12/1 for his debut race at Newmarket 15 days ago. Celestran done a lot wrong that day when starting slowly and running green throughout the race. Celestran looks a big athletic type and despite starting slow the Cheveley Park owned colt got the hang of things late on without threatening the eventual winner Louganini. He stayed on nicely for jockey Nick Mackay and the extra distance should suit, the form didn’t look particularly strong but has potential to improve.
Conclusion: A tough race here with plenty in with chances and as am in work tonight I have to write this without knowing the betting, plus not much to go on form wise with these later 2-year-old races. Poet’s Mind looks to have a great chance here but not for me at the price. I might do a split stake on Celestran and Favourite Moon if they don’t take a huge drift and the price allows.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
A quick update on my last post and the few horses I have mentioned on my Facebook page. First up Emaraty Hero was never involved in what looked like a pretty nice race to be fair. I mentioned that former jockey Alan Rutter who actually rides out for John Gosden had nominated the newcomer King Leonidas as his horse to follow, he was spot on with that as the impressive King Leonidas won like a good thing. I had an each-way on Emaraty Hero as King Leonidas was too short at 13/8 but even though I lost it was nice to see King Leonidas win.
I didn’t bet on the 4/5 shot Sorrel who finished second at Kempton but I did have a small bet on Grain Of Sense who could only manage fourth at Newmarket. This soft going is a nightmare for punters and it would be nice if I could be more disciplined but that doesn’t seem to be happening at the minute.
The last one in my post was the one Jason and I had been waiting for. Farnham is a really well-thought-of filly for Roger Varian who had a number of significant entries as a 2-year-old but didn’t run. Farnham made her debut in April but wasn’t seen again until last Thursday at Chelmsford. Yes, I know she was the odds on favourite but for me, it was more about seeing if she still had some ability after such a long lay off. Farnham won well and looked to have a bit in hand. The early price of 5/4 looked nice of course after she had won but as I said it was just nice to see her win.
A few more on my Facebook page I mentioned was Station To Station who on firsthand looked disappointing but I have a feeling we may see a better run next timeout if running in a nursery. I also bet on Tulip Fields and Nicks No Wonder who both got placed. Another one I mentioned on Facebook was the Simon Crisford colt Finely Tuned who was running Wednesday this week. I took an early price of 13/2 and by race time Finely Tuned was 3/1. I almost gave up on my bet until Finely Tuned sprouted wings inside the last furlong and a bit further would have won. I finally got a winner though when Bye Bye Lady won for my eye-catchers priced 3/1.
Speculative Friday
12:00 Newmarket 01 Nov 2019:
Wadi Al Sail is trained by Miss Gay Kelleway who has a few nice 2-year-olds including Global Esteem who ran a great race to finish third at 25/1 on his debut at Leicester last month.
Wadi Al Sail might not be up to that standard but I'm willing to take a chance with a small each-way bet if the price is right. The Holy Roman Emperor colt was a cheap 17,000 euro yearling but unsold for 24,000 gns as a 2-year-old. His debut race was in a Class 2 race at Goodwood back in July, a complete outsider at 66/1. Wadi Al Sail was up with the pace for most of the way until meeting difficulty in running and losing all chance and eased down towards the finish. I am not saying he would have won or might not have been even placed but would have been a lot closer to the smart Cobra Eye. Interesting that owner H.E Sherida Al-Kaabi also had Fuwayrit in that race who looks a nice colt himself. Wadi Al Sail was given a significant entry after his debut which is interesting but this would be more of a speculative bet with some potentially nice newcomers from top yards plus a dangerous Aidan O’ Brien colt called Keats.
12:35 Newmarket 03 Nov 2017:
Interested to see how the Richard Hannon trained Sky Power runs here. The 450,000 gns yearling had an early entry for the Group 2 Champagne Stakes but didn’t run. The betting will be the clue to the Fastnet Rock colts chances. Richard Hannon won this race in 2017 with Maghaweer. No bet for me on debut but hopefully he runs a nice race.
16:50 Newcastle 01 Nov 2019:
It looks like a day of speculative bets for me as Kumasi looks to be another who will start off at a big price. The David O’Meara New Approach colt was purchased by Cheverley Park owners for 130,000 gns as a foal and made his debut in the Class 2 Convivial Stakes at York back in August. Not fancied that day at 33/1 Kumasi looked out of his depth but did show up well until the last furlong when weakening. This looks a lot easier and if he has any ability hopefully the market will support him. A small hopeful each-way bet for me as O’meara doesn’t have too many 2-year-old winners at Newcastle.
Good luck and thanks for reading.
