Thursday's Racing Tips (7th October)

Just a quick post to fill a space. 

1:00 Ayr - 

This looks a race where most have been searching for a win. 

I'm always worried about any horse that doesn't win in its first three starts. Beltane has run well and should have a fighting chance here. You may say he needs more than a chance at even money. Monsieur Jumbo ran well last time out and if doing the same may have claims at 11/4. Not a race I will be betting. 

5:30 Chelmsford - 

High Velocity is a good-looking colt who ran well enough on debut. Dropping back to five-furlongs after being put in his place by Light Infantry. Has very good stat but with the original favourite, True Icon, being a non runner it looks a pointless exercise. I say that because Tate's horse in this category (I'm not saying anymore) either win or unplaced. I'd be pretty surprised if this grey colt loses but at relatively short odds there isn't much meat on the bone. 

6:30 Chelmsford - 

An intriguing race where the two favourites look the types to win. Flora Finch is my idea of the winner and probably a fair price to chance. If drifting to the extreme would be a good bet. Rae Guest's Mizzen You ran well on debut at Yarmouth and may well have won if a little more clued up. This grey filly should go well in this banded race although whether she will be good enough to beat the favourite is the gamble. A wide draw doesn't help, especially on a turning course. Even over seven furlong, which gives time, you don't want to be pushed wide because it is big problem. In addition, Guest's two-year-olds on their second start often struggle to win. It is a concern. On the stats, there is more chance of being placed and if drifting to the extreme may make a fair each way bet.

Author: Jason Coote

Friday Feeling (Plus Rock On Tommy And Previews)

You can stick the Doncaster St Leger Festival meeting where the sun doesn't shine. This is what I'm talking about. We have a great meeting at Ayr and Newbury to wet the taste buds. I will preview a few horses that I have noted down. The bad thing is I have a couple of trackers in the same race which annoys me but that's life hey. 

13:40 Fri 20 September 2019: AYR 

Duesenberg has a win penalty after a promising debut for Richard Fahey. The second that day was Hartswood who has since gone on to win. Sean Davis takes a 3 lb off the Elzaam colt. Step up in trip should suit. 

Melody King is another who shoulders a win penalty after a nice debut at Thirsk. The 200,000 gns Phoenix Thoroughbred Limited owned Kodiac colt got the hang of things late on and won by just under a length. Not the strongest race but you can only beat what's put in front of you. 

El Naseri is an interesting one after a promising debut at Thirsk. The Michael Dods trained 40,000 euro purchase is a half brother to Karl Burkes Comedy who has run at a decent level. El Naseri was a 20/1 shot on debut and kept towards the back by jockey Paul Mulrennan until making rapid progress and nearly getting up to beat the well-entered Plymouth Rock. 

Gift Of Kings (tracker) is trained by Kevin Ryan and owned by Clipper Logistics. This Kingman colt was purchased for 120,000 gns in October last year. His debut race was in Class 2 Convivial Stakes at York, which is always a good sign. I don't think Gift Of Kings was fully tuned up that day and the 33/1 starting price was the clue. It was a pretty decent debut considering his price and stayed on well in the closing stages. The winner that day was the Roger Varian trained Molhatam who has since won a Listed race at Doncaster and looks a real nice colt. The Second Celtic Art has also come out and won a Class 2 race. The market should show the clue to Gift Of Kings chances. 

Am not sure how strong the race Gravity Force made his debut in was but the winner Ascension has won twice now. Gravity Force is a 45,000 gns Fountain Of Youth colt and was purchased in 2017 for owners Bearstone Stud Limited. He made a promising debut at Newcastle but jockey Clifford Lee had to earn his pay because he was hard at work from the word go. Normally you can tell when Karl Burke has a nice horse as the money comes in but it was the opposite here as Gravity Force drifted to 12/1. Even though Gravity Force took a while to get going he sprouted wings a couple of furlongs out and finished full of running. 

Conclusion: I can't decide between the potentially nice Kevin Ryan colt Gift Of Kings or the promise that Gravity Force showed when staying on well-last timeout. The extra furlong should suit Gravity Force. The other nice colts make it even harder but I might do a split stake and hope for the best. 

13:15 Fri 20 September 2019: NEWBURY 

A couple of nice newcomers here including the Richard Hannon trained Theotherside who had a couple of Class 2 entries but didn't run. I will concentrate on one who has already had a run. 

Tommy Rock looks a nice 2-year-old after a pleasing debut in the Sounds Commercial Bristol Maiden Stakes at Bath last month. The Clive Cox trained Society Rock colt is owned by Mr Peter Ridgers and was purchased for 100,000 euros as a yearling in the October sales last year. The fact that this grey colt was drawn wide on debut made life a little more difficult, having said that he will have learnt plenty from his first run. Tommy Rock was tapped for toe early on before getting the hang of things later on. The eventual winner Brad The Brief had already flown before Tommy Rock had got into top gear. Tommy Rock should benefit from a step up in distance. I would go as far as saying the 2/1 favourite was the best horse in the race last month and hopefully I can get an each-way price here. 

Good luck and thanks for reading.