Thirsk 13.30 Saturday
Couple of trackers in this race plus a few nice looking newcomers. East Bank is a tracker who won on debut but disappointed last timeout, could bounce back. Lieutenant Rascal is a tracker from the George Scott yard. Not known for first timeout 2yo winners but his first runner of the season Billy Webster won the other day. Sankari ran in the Brocklesby, up with the pace until fading. May would be trainer John Quinn's best month and any support would be of interest. Obligatory is a tracker for the Tim Easterby yard who has a poor fto record. Bellarchi had an early entry in the Brocklesby for Grant Tuer, another trainer not known for fto winners. Invincible Tiger looks the most interesting newcomer for the James Tate team. Had a first timeout winner already with Blue Storm. Related to a few nice types, positive if strong in the betting. I'm going to go with the Karl Burke runner LOCHABAR here with a run under his belt already, love a Karl Burke second timeout runner especially when supported, that could be the key for me here, I'll probably take a gamble and try to get a decent early price. The 37,000 gns yearling was beaten pretty far on debut at Musselburgh when sent off 15/2, up with the pace until fading late on, needs to improve no doubt and as I said the betting will be the key here, if drifting would be a negative.
Lochabar 15/8 4th
140 Newmarket Saturday
Often a bet is about a number of factors; it’s a complicated analysis of form for all of the runners, current form, past form, course, distance, handicap marks, relative form, race pace etc etc. Occasionally you just see something and just feel sure the horse will handle itself in better company; you feel inclined to back it next time out provided there is no obvious reason not to. For me, TEUMESSIAS FOX fits the later category following an impressive reappearance at Kempton. I’m always interested to hear what a trainer says (whilst also mindful not to take it as gospel) and a quick google of ‘Andrew Balding’s stable tour’ gets you to here: https://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/andrew-balding#expandable-content-3366292
‘He won well last time out and looked a totally different horse. I think he is better with a bit of space between his races and he will run at the Guineas meeting at Newmarket in the mile and a half handicap and then we will look towards Ascot. I am hoping he is a Duke of Edinburgh type.’
This matches up with my assessment (which I am sure Mr Balding will be relieved to hear 😊) and I am happy to do my money if we are both wrong!
Teumessias Fox 100/30 1st
17.50 Newmarket YACOWLEF
Caught the eye last time out in a fairly hot C2 6f handicap here at the Craven meeting. Under the pump for some way but battled on well to finish runner up. He was outpaced some way out but fought back to be front rank going into the dip. I thought he was going to be well beaten going into it but he reappears out of the dip with a flourish and gets his head down, ears back and ready to fight. The winner had already gone though.
The third from the race has come out and won a listed race today and it surely now looks like form to follow. He is up 2lb now from that but it could prove to be lenient still.
With the race under his belt and experience of the track, he now looks ready to tackle 7f again. He drops into a C4 here albeit with a hefty weight but Ryan Moore is booked and that is also eye-catching. Only one previous ride for the yard.
If he can produce anything like he did last time here and strips fitter for that initial run back he ought to be going close here.
Yacowlef 7/2 1st
1.35 Naas – Harry’s Hill
Harry's Hill was an eyecatcher on his last two runs against much stronger rivals. Yet he has dropped a whopping 4lb (whopping by Irish standards) for those runs.
He came to my attention for the first time on his seasonal reappearance at the Curragh at the end of March:
He was somewhat awkwardly away from the gate, but then showed blistering early speed to lead the field. He was going well for a long time before falling away in the final furlong.
To some extent it was a similar story last time at Cork. However, that time he also had to overcome a draw disadvantage, and was racing as part of a small group on the far side. He won on his side, and once again travelled very strongly for a long time.
On both occasions he was up against it on class terms. Both runs warrant an upgrade even further, because they came on deep ground.
His record on ground not worse than yielding over 5 furlongs - it looks fair to assume the ground continues to dry as it's quite warm, sunny and breezy here in Naas with no further rain of any significance expected - is excellent: 7-2-3.
This is an easier race, on his preferred ground and trip. On speed ratings he looks also competitive off his current 73 mark, which is 3lb higher than his career best from last year, when he seemed to take his form to a new level. In ideal conditions he should have a cracking chance here.
Harry Hill 15/2 1st
Advised bet: Lucky 15
Nice winner from Racingtictac last week when Nobody Told Me won well, advised 11/4, not to be outdone Equinefutures popped up with a 16/1 place.
Thanks for reading and good luck.
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