Wednesday 28 September 2022

Wednesday's 2yo Update (28th September)

1:00 Nottingham - 

A difficult race. Tephi is speedy and will be trying hard and most likely lead. No value. Also, fourth start which brings slight concerns. Poseidon Prince has decent stats if 11/4 and less sp. Wadi Bani has a couple of class 2 stakes race entries. Looked unlucky last time at Goodwood. Potentially a decent horse but Durack just never seems to have much luck and I wonder if dropping back to 5f will see this horse outpaced. I couldn't bet on it at shortish odds. Pierce hasn't been seen for a long time but ran well on debut and may appreciate this drop to the minimum trip. Cox has fair stats sto if 13/2 and less sp. May have some element of value to it but not the easiest to assess. Exquisitely cost a lot of money and was a short price on debut when failing to shine. I don't like the look of this filly as she is pretty small and skinny. Perhaps she's been given time to build up a bit. Would be a fair stat horse if priced 13/2 and less sp so worth watching to see if the money comes but if weak in the betting I'd take it as a negative. All in all a difficult race to assess with plenty of ifs and buts. 

1:35 Nottingham - 

A tough looking race. I can't help but think a few of these are fancying their chances today which means a difficult race especially if you don't have value on side. Zarga, Shining Jewel and Sisyphus Strength look the types to go well and I wouldn't like to pick between them. Cochin is a difficult horse to assess as looked beaten and outpaced last time then ran on well and may appreciate this step up in trip. Always a slight concern she was flattered. However, she is a decent looker and seems to run in a settled fashion and may just need this longer trip. Run Simba would be a high stat horse for Burke if 13/2 and less sp. Ran a decent race on debut when beating Zarga and could well improve for the experience and step up in distance. No doubt held in some regard by the stable, she could be a decent bet. Ideally, she would drift to a good value price and be backed. I would have concerned if weak in the betting near the off. It just looks a competitive race which makes me want extra value to give this horse a go. I don't think this is going to be an easy race and the winner will be of a fair standard. 

2:54 Catterick - 

No opinion. 

5:00 Kempton - 

Pinafore is a fair horse with a group entry. Looks the one to beat but no value. Novus has decent stats if 13/2 and less sp. Stepping up in distance. Also, Dakota Elegance would have a hope if 9/1 and less sp. I thought the jockey booking looked a bit unusual and perhaps a negative. A big price but would need to be backed to have a solid hope. 

5:30 Kempton - 

No great opinion. 

6:45 Newcastle - 

Obelix looks a fair horse but no value. Dubai Crystal has a group entry and not impossible to hold a chance although probably a step too far. If the favourite is 1/4 or shorter I wouldn't look to it getting beaten. Burke's horses can go well on debut and it may run a race but only worth betting on the exchanges where you may get double figure odds. More a watching race but of some interest. Captain Wentworth ran in the Convivial but looked a weak link last time out after showing pace and would need to have disappointed that day to hold any real hope.


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