Wednesday 27 April 2022

5:00 Brighton Race Preview (27th April)

A restricted maiden stakes over 5f 1/2f on good to firm going. Eight two-year-olds takes part, three with racecourse experience. 

It is worth noting these race types because this is very restricted, most horses costing little money. These factors need to be taken into account when assessing not only this race today but later form. 

An open-looking race. 

Coraje was entered for the Brocklesby but made her debut running well enough at Kempton and then well backed at Beverley second start where Primrose Ridge literally flew home. George Boughey's daughter of Expert Eye ran terribly. It was too bad to be true. I wonder if she had an issue or knocked herself leaving the stalls. Today, we will see the truth. If strongly fancied it would give hope that last race can be ignored. However, I wouldn't like to bet at short odds. Conversely, if a big price you'd have to consider this small filly has regressed. 

Confederation, trained by John Butler, ran in the Brocklesby and didn't achieve a great deal when finishing last, some nineteen lengths behind the impressive Persian Force. This grey son of Brazen Beau showed some pace before dropping back. You would have to be a brave soul to bet on this April foal but sometimes the worse they look the better they are. Debutantes can be transformed on their second start. A 33/1 shot today. Butler has given a few horses significant entries and a couple have proven up to winning. It would be something of a hit and hope but this colt may have a glimmer for those who like a speculative punt. From a statistical point of view, he can go well when priced 12/1 and less SP. So, on that front, money would bring greater hope. 

George Boughey fields another filly on her second start. Clear To Land looked poor on debut. In the ownership of Nick Bradley Racing 27 & Partner, this chest filly, a daughter of Dragon's Pulse, wasn't a giant price when making her debut at Bath. She did little but may do better today. I must say, George Boughey's two-year-olds have been running horrendously and I couldn't bet on any of their juveniles until they show some form. There has been some money for Clear To Land and if backed to single-figure odds may be a surprise package. I won't be betting. 

Joseph Parr has done well with his juveniles since he started training, related to Alan Bailey, and this yard like to get the money down if they fancy one. They can go well on debut. Last season saw a number of disappointing two-year-olds which tempers enthusiasm. However, it is worth keeping an eye on the market for Topo Chico. This son of Havana Grey is related to Electric Ladyland who was a winning debutante for Archie Watson (2019). If backed to single-figures, if not seriously backed, would have some interest. 

To be fair this is a difficult race to assess.  

In addition, there are five two-year-old debutantes from the great and good of trainers. 

There has been money for Mark Johnston's Favourite Queen who cost just £12,000 at the yearling sales. This daughter of Massaat has claims and especially so if backed to a short-priced favourite. 

Land Of Summer, trained by Richard Hannon, is one of those handlers whose debutantes are often poor value at relatively short odds. In the ownership of Mrs. Julie Woods, this daughter of Clodovil was another bargain basement buy at just 11,000g. I'd have to take a watching brief. 

Kevin Philliaprt de Foy did exceptionally well last season and his debutantes can take some stopping. Mai Award, a daughter of Havana Grey, out of a three-time-winning mare, has been weak in the betting (at the time of writing) and it may be a slight negative that the apprentice (Benoit De La Sayette) has been booked to ride. However, de Foy is a very good trainer and if there is money for this March foal there may be some hope. 

George Scott doesn't have the best statistics with his debutantes, although their sole two-year-old runner this season, Rocket Rodney, went exceptionally close to winning at Nottingham. One of two colts in the field, Sherman Klumpf, a bay gelding and son of Profitable, out of a poor mare, and a 9,000g yearling purchase may be best watched although I do often favour a colt (gelding) over fillies.

Conclusion: A tricky affair with a field of cheaply-purchased two-year-olds. I must admit I am interested in Coraje, who I had a bet last time when running horrendously. If strong in the market, I would be hopeful of a big run but with the stable two-year-old form looking more like a row of duck eggs and little value, I wouldn't take the chance. If seriously weak in the betting, I would imagine Coraje has regressed. Time will tell. I would keep an eye on the betting for Topo Chico. If backed to single-figure odds could go well. Confederation may have a glimmer of hope at giant odds (33/1) but I'd like to see some money for this colt go well. Mark Johnston's Favourite Queen is probably price to chance but would have very strong claims if backed to 6/4 and less SP. 

Note: My style of betting makes it difficult if not nearly impossible to give an outright tip in the race because it is dependent on the betting, which can change markedly in the last ten minutes before the off. 

Good luck if you are betting. 

Author: Jason Coote

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