Saturday 9 October 2021

3:50 York Racing Tips (9th October)

A big field for this Class 3. 

Not the easiest of races to have concrete thoughts but a few here which may have some hope.

Ed Walker's Speranzoso is a good-looking son of Siyouni out of a winning mare, who was placed at Group class. This March foal was sold for £100,000 at the breeze-up sales. He was pretty fancied on debut at Haydock over 6f. It wasn't a bad performance for a debutante although a touch keen. One thing you don't want is to be too keen over 7f which could be a concern here although I imagine this bay colt will settle better today. From a statistical point of view this horse has serious claims. However, they seem to win or unplaced so as they say buyer beware (bettor). 

From an entries point of view we should be singing the praises of Tim Easterby's Forgivable. This son of Iffraaj has raced three times and shown ability on three starts, beaten less than three lengths on each occasion. However, I'm sure connections (if not backers) have been disappointed not to see a win in this trio of efforts. Easterby does well at York and it does give hope they are trying for this grade. There is a concern that after three attempts the win is becoming less likely. It would be a worry for me because if the official rating of 73 is true you'd expect this race to go to a horse with more ability. Perhaps Forgivable will show more today. That's the gamble. I'd rather watch. It would bring more hope if seriously backed. 

Bryan Smart's Emperor Caradoc wasn't unfancied on debut at Carlise and may come here with half a hope. The main reason for this thought is that Smart gave this son of Siyouni a Convivial Stakes entry. Considering he's had a few half-talented two-year-olds this season, he should have some measure of ability. That debut over 6f was far too short and I imagine he was in need of the experience. Emperor Caradoc was always a touch outpaced and ran on with an element of hope although beaten many lengths. If betting today, you will be hoping for a transformation, which isn't beyond hope. Improvement is needed but odds of 25/1 may be enough to tempt a small each-way bet. After an absence of 44-days this colt could return a different horse. It would be a positive to see some money for this youngster. In truth, if betting, you are chancing your luck. 

Conclusion: In truth this is a difficult-looking race. For me it is a race where you can go for the favourite, Speranzoso, and be half hopeful of a run or stick your head on the chopping block and hope that Emperor Caradoc springs something of a surprise at odds. 

Good luck.

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