Monday 19 July 2021

5:45 Beverley Racing Tips (19th July)

A few two-year-old races today but I'll focus on this race as it looks more interesting than most. 

Five furlongs on good to firm going. Nine two-year-olds take part in this restricted maiden stakes. A mix of form horses and debutantes. 

Smullen was fancied to win on debut but disappointed when third or four at odds of 8/13. Kevin Ryan's charge ran much better next time out at Hamilton when stepping up to six furlongs. This son of Camacho, in the ownership of Mrs.J. Ryan, is stepping back to the minimum trip on this course with an uphill finish. He had a narrow loss last time but looks a straightforward horse who should run a race. As with everything betting, it's about finding value and I'm not so sure 6/4 is giving too much away. 

There has been a bit of money for Richard Fahey's Ionian Sea, who races in the familiar silks of the Richard Fahey Ebor Racing Club Ltd. On the exchanges, a few lucky punters got odds as big as 9/1, the price fluctuating to as low as 3/1. This bay gelding, a son of Ardad out of an unraced mare, cost £18,000 at the yearling sales. Fahey does well at this course and a horse to be respected and, presently, priced 9/2 with bookmakers.

Julie Camacho doesn't have a great number of two-year-olds but a capable trainer. *Enraged caught a few punter's attention when running on to finish fourth over course and distance just over two-weeks back. This daughter of Aardad is out of a three-time-winning mare. She cost £29,000 at the yearling sales. There has been money for this filly. She was slow away on that occasion and made headway to finish with some spirit. I would have slight concerns she will be outpaced early and run on. If this is true, she may well be much bigger odds in running and that could be an angle for those fancying the chances of this March foal. 

Nigel Tinkler's Prodigious Blue is half interesting. This bay gelding is a son of Bated Breath and a good-looking horse. He has shown ability on his last two starts and could well be a live contender here. Perhaps the biggest concern is dropping back in trip. In ways, I would rather him run over 6f. This first attempt at the minimum trip might be a positive. He's shown good pace. However, the difference between running over five and six furlong is quite marked. It could be the case Prodigious Blue is outpaced and you are relying on him finishing with gusto and making up lost ground. This is the problem with assessing this horse as the likes of Smullen are likely to lead and any advantage may be telling. He's been about 10/1 on the exchanges which is a fair price. 

Conclusion: There may not be too many who get involved here. Smullen is a straightforward horse and has a decent level of pace. Certainly enough to lead and may hold a decent advantage. It's difficult to assess Ionian Sea. Fahey does well at this course and his juveniles hold decent statistics when fancied on debut. Enraged looks to be well fancied in the betting. She may have improved for the experience and sit handy. I'd have concerns she could be outpaced and running on. She may be a different horse today but often what you see is what you get and if she's trailing the field and looking to catch up it might be a tall order. If betting, I would definitely bet in running. I have half an eye on Prodigious Blue who has set a decent level of ability for a race of this nature. I do have concerns about this five furlongs. At double-figure odds (exchanges) there may be some hope for an each way punt. 

Full Result

Source: Racing Post 


Author: Jason Coote

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