I have three horses of interest - each for different reasons.
Peggoty, trained by Ed Walker, was a very unlucky loser when denied a clear run last time out at Bath. Any punter with their cash on this daughter of Hot Streak was pulling out their hair as they looked on what should have been a certainty and money for nothing. The fact she touched 1.01 in running won't make any of you feel better if you don't back on the exchanges. This bay filly has done little wrong in all three starts and the stable are in good form. By all accounts, you'd expect this bay filly to run out a tidy winner. So she might. One thing you can say is that she doesn't seem blessed with much luck. Unless drifting in the betting, Peggoty will start odds-on. She could well start at 4/11 if the punters get stuck in or the opposition is considered even weaker than they look.
Right or wrong, I don't like betting odds-on as you need such a high strike rate that it becomes a very hard way of winning money.
Two other horses may have a glimmer of hope.
*Nordic Glory is a little mad. In the fact, he has two buttons: fast and stop. This son of Cotai Glory has an official rating of just 66 [which is pretty much selling class]. On all ways of thinking you would give him little hope of beating Peggoty. He is a speedy type who looks half mad, over racing, headstrong, he only needs to start frothing at the mouth and you may think he's been possessed. If nothing else, I'm looking forward to Michael Attwater's charge as this fast five-furlongs may be to his liking and with 5lb apprentice Rhys Clutterbuck on his back he may shoot clear of the field and try to hang on for grim death. In truth, I can't see him holding the late charge of the favourite and the type to either win or lose. There will be no in between. If drifting to ridiculous prices on the exchanges there may be a chance you can lay off in running at much shorter odds to secure a profit. It will be sod's law they change tactics which would be a real shame.
Get ready to press the button: fast or stop!
The last of the trio is half interesting and may have a chance of hitting the frame at fair odds.
Kevin Philippart de Foy has been a revelation this Flat turf season and his record is exceptional.
*Mehmentum is worth a look because the stables horses have been in flying form and it would be no surprise to see this son of Mehmas show his true colours today. This £15,000 breeze-up purchase out of a winning mare has been fancied on both starts to date and unlucky that weather conditions changed at Beverley to good to soft, which was given as reason for a disappointing performance. I expect this colt to relish this fast going and if available at double-figure odds may holds each-way claims. You are always taking a chance on a horse that needs to bounce back to form but considering he was withdrawn when entered to run at Lingfield on soft going so it's a real excuse.
Conclusion: By all accounts Peggoty should win but at prohibited odds you wouldn't want any bad luck. I couldn't bet odds on. Nordic Glory isn't a good horse but fast and could appreciate this drop in distance. In ways these possible bets are like some kind of illusion to make money which disappears when you try to touch the wad of cash. It might be possible to get giant odds with this horse on the exchanges and it might well be the case he is pretty short in running. That could lead to a profit if you like that type of bet. However, I can tell you this much, Nordic Glory will either win or lose - there will be no in between. I wouldn't be betting on this gelding each-way. Win, lose or draw. Mehmentum could be a decent each-way bet. The favourite could hold up the price and although something to prove may be the value bet here. If drifting to 20s on the exchanges (who knows) I would be betting and cover the place. An interesting race in ways.
*NR
Disappointing to see the two non runners.
Author: Jason Coote
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