Wednesday 28 July 2021

1:00 Redcar Racing Tips (28th July)

A very brief look at today's two-year-old races.

I won't focus on the Group race or Class 2 at Goodwood as I prefer lower class races to find winners. 

That leaves us with three races. 

1:00 Redcar - 

Clearly, Karl Burke's Last Crusader is held in high regard. This son of Oasis Dream won on debut and looked the type to improve with his racing. Clipper Logistics are looking ahead to pattern races with this bay colt and it will be a fair test if he can defy the win penalty from the likes of Monsieur Jumbo and Grifter who are no forlorn hopes. 

On the stats, fancied horse with win penalties go well, often using these races as a transition to Group class. I can't say I'd be betting at short odds as it isn't my thing but respect the chance of this horse. 

Monsieur Jumbo has a form line with Last Crusader through Claim The Stars. Taking in the penalty, you could argue that Kevin Ryan's grey colt has a leading chance here. He is held in some regard. It may be telling that he was entered for the Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2) but not in it now. Perhaps that is a sign he isn't quite to those lofty levels but it is difficult to know a trainer's plans. He's up to winning a race and that is what matters at this grade. A narrow loss on debut saw him a 4/9 shot at Doncaster on heavy going. A slow start didn't help and neither did bumping into a fair winner in Miss Calculation, trained by Rebecca Menzies, who either disappointed or outclassed when contesting the Princess Margaret Stakes (Group 3). 

To add to the mix we have Grifter who ran in the same race as Monsieur Jumbo at Doncaster. Richard Fahey's gelding is a fair-looking horse who was completely outpointed on debut behind Bosh at York. He wasn't fancied in the betting that day and really had a stiff task against more experienced, talented and speedy juveniles. Gifter was awarded second place ahead of Monsieur Jumbo after being hampered. That was a real test of stamina that day and I just wonder if this 6f on a better surface will be slightly outpaced and run on in the closing stages. Out of the two, I would imagine Monsieur Jumbo is a much speedier horse. 

Interesting to see how Wooton'Sun goes on debut for Richard Farhey. This son of Wootton Basset cost 100,000g. 

Conclusion: Last Crusader will go well but I wouldn't be betting at short odds. In ways, Monsieur Jumbo is the only real opposition unless the ground turned softer which may bring Grifter into calculations. It's a slight concern that Ryan's charge isn't earmarked for the Gimcrack but still a horse with ability. He has been a little bit tardy from the stalls which isn't ideal and he wouldn't want to give Last Crusader a head start. Perhaps if drifting to bigger odds Monsieur Jumbo may be a decent each way but you may have little to gain if placed and a lot to lose it trying to beat Burke's talent and paying the price and tiring out of the frame. It can happen and that would be frustrating. 

5:35 Leicester - 

I'd keen an eye on the betting. 

Simon Crisford's Accelerando needs to improve on her debut effort when down the field at Kempton. If strongly fancied in the betting would have decent each way claims. If weak I'd take a watching brief. 

A similar story for James Fanshawe's Ischia who was fancied on debut but trailed home. The apprentice is in the saddle so that could be a plus or a negative. Definitely needs to improve but at big prices may be the type for a pre-emotive gamble. However, this daughter of Equiano would need to be seriously backed to figure here but would be a solid bet if strong in the market. 

6:55 Sandwon - 

New Mission may go well for Godolphin although it is worth remembering from 18 debutanted for Charlie Appleby they've had just two first time out winners. Considering the vast majority were favourites you have to slightly question whether their horses are better for a race this season. On the stats, this son of Dubawi has very good claims. He wears a hood for debut which may be a slight negative. 

If the Godolphin horse isn't in winning mode it may just give hope to El Bodegon, trained by James Ferguson. I have little doubt this colt has ability and held in some regard. He wasn't far away from winning on debut at Windsor and is sure to be much fitter today and make the most of that experience. A wide draw isn't ideal but I think this son of Kodiac will go well and a live chance especially if drifting a touch in the betting. 

Croupier has been fancied to go well on both starts to date. He ran well on debut and then bumped into a few talents at Leicester on his second start. It was a decent effort although, perhaps, slightly disappointing. Simon Crisford must have felt a gelding operation was the answer and he makes his return and steps up to 7f. He's got the breeding to cope with this step up in distance but I am not sure what to think with a few ifs and buts. 

If betting, I'd be looking to back El Bodegan each-way but I would hope for a drift in the betting to give a little bit of value. 

Source: Racing Post 

Author: Jason Coote

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