Quite an interesting race. From a statistical point of view, Bridesman and Shielded are most likely.
Bridesman is a son of Exceed And Excel out of an unraced mare. This bay colt cost £90,000 at the yearling sales. John Gosden trains this March foal for Godolphin. From a betting point of view, the stable's debutantes have very high claims if priced 6/4 and less sp (not much meat on the boat) but can win at bigger odds.
Certainly, Gosden can train a winner on their first time out but, additionally, they can be a touch hit and miss, with greater chance of being placed than winning (hardly surprising on general averages).
Shielded, trained by Simon Crisford, is the horse I would be looking at here. The stable do very well with their two-year-olds on their second start. In fact, most trainers have by far greater chances of winning second time out compared with debut. This son of Buratino, out of an unraced mare, was backed from 7/2 - 11/4 on debut when failing to shine, finishing in sixth place, although far from disgraced, beaten three lengths.
Connections have stepped up in distance by a furlong and a half, which should help. I'm sure this colt will be wiser for the debut effort when, by my reckoning, it was in a significant betting guide. This factor gives added consideration for the chances today.
Shielded has respectable each-way claims and of interest.
Guest post: Jason Coote
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