Wednesday, 9 December 2020

Wednesday: 3:50 Kempton (9th December)


The Try Our New Boosts At Unibet Novice Stakes. 

Quite an intriguing race over 6f. A field of eleven two-year-olds take part. 

Caribbean Sunset won on debut at Linfield when holding the late charge of Touchwood. This £55,000 yearling, in the ownership of Star Bloodstock Racing, trained by Simon & Ed Crisford, was fancied to go well on debut and made a perfect introduction when 'just holding on'. Under the burden of a 7lb win penalty, this will be a tougher battle to win and a wide draw isn't ideal. I can imagine James Doyle will do his best to get to the rail and try to lead. There should be improvement to come and although it's no easy task to give weight away the statistics suggest this April foal will run a big race. Whether you would want to take short odds is a matter of opinion. 

Impeach could go well today although there are a few question marks. Brian Meehan's son of No Nay Never has raced twice and we've seen a little bit of the same at Kempton and Chelmsford. I have little doubt Manton House Estate hold this chestnut colt in some regard but will he show more today? He was very well backed on debut (on the exchanges from 30 - 8) and started 6/1 with bookies. He looked inexperienced on debut, a bit bulky as if not fit, and always a touch outpaced although just about in contention. Impeach wandered about in the straight and took a good while to get organised. The form of that debut race looks fair. The second start Chelmsford when stepping up to 7f was disappointing. I'm pretty sure that had much to do with the colt being far too keen. Sometimes it is difficult to tell how hard a horse is pulling but it is most likely he ruined any hope. Clearly connections are concerned such exuberance may tell over further distances, so this drop back in trip may be the answer to the question. I was hoping to get big odds on this horse betting on the exchanges (it did touch 14) but at shorter odds I would probably take a watching brief. A plum draw (1) may be a good thing, although there is a slight concern he will be outpaced, similar to debut. A horse that could well go well here and if touching big odds may be worth a speculative bet. 

To add to the mix we have David Simcock's Ronan Accuser in the familiar silks of Colin Murfitt. This bay son of Sepoy hasn't been seen for a couple of months when relatively fancied on debut, racing over course and distance, however, at auction class. It was a muddling race and although beaten less than two lengths. This home bred looked bulky and in need of the run from a wide draw on debut. Instantly outpaced, he ran on from off the pace and ran creditably in the circumstances. The betting that day suggested this horse holds claims and I would be looking at the market this afternoon to make assessment. Very few of Simcock's two-year-old win on their second start if weak in the betting. However, if strong in the market I would be confident this colt would hold very strong each-way claims. I must admit, the booking of Luke Morris seems strange and may be a poor jockey booking. I can't understand why Jamie Spencer isn't riding. If weak in the market, with the jockey booking, I would have to take it as a negative. 

Tom Clover is a decent trainer and know his horses well. Rockett Man in the ownership of The Rogues Gallery. This is a significant patron of the stable. This chestnut son of Equiano cost just 15,000 guineas at the breeze-up sales. He was relatively fancied at 10/1 when racing at Wolverhampton over 6f, almost eight lengths behind Anatiya, trained by the Crisfords. An attractive colt, he was keen on debut and quite inexperienced. If priced 13/2 and less sp may come into the equation, although looks to need a good deal of improvement from what was seen on debut. 

It will be interesting to see how John Butler's Ivasecret goes after being half fancied on debut in testing going at Yarmouth. The jockey booking of Oisin Murphy may have been significant and this colt cost a few quid 56,000 euros. He showed nothing much on debut although that may have been due to the ground. Interesting to see how this goes.

Conclusion: It's a difficult if not complicated race to assess.The betting will be a decent guide and I would be waiting for this information. I'm pretty sure the favourite will go well but probably little value. Impeach is the main interest and if touching big odds on the exchanges may be worth a small each-way bet. I'm not keen on horses who disappoint although the stats for it on second start were very good so that does give hope for today. Ronan Accuser is a funny one to consider. The betting will tell the story. If priced 13/2 and less sp has decent each-way claims. The jockey booking looks strange to me which may be a negative.

Guest post: Jason Coote

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