Showing posts with label Bath. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bath. Show all posts

Tuesday, 17 August 2021

2:15 Bath Racing Tips (18th August)

A fascinating race. 

This 12-strong field of maidens race over 5f (5f10y) on Good going. 

Karl Burke's *Kaboo has been disappointing. I'm sure connections thought winning a formality. 

However, three runs later, this son of More Than Ready is still awaiting victory. 

Making his racecourse bow at Listed class tells the reputation of this colt. He was made favourite second start when disappointing, then further frustration competing at Goodwood, beaten double-figure lengths. 

It's back to the drawing board with this maiden.

Kaboo is a very talented horse but his headstrong ways have been his downfall.

Perhaps it is exuberance. 

A keen-going horse is one with a question mark. 

In my opinion, Kaboo will be an easy winner or a poor loser. 

From a string of flashy entries, this March foal is one of the better two-year-olds at Spigot Lodge. 

At present, those ambitions are still alive. If this race results in another loss those lofty plans will most likely be shelved.

Let's hope we see a better performance today. Anything other than a win will be viewed as disappointing.

Richard Hannon probably feels the same about Tyson, who is trying to make it seventh race lucky. 

To be fair, this grey gelding has come close to winning on at least three occasions when beaten by half a length or less. Much of Tyson's problems have come from being far too keen in his races. It says something about this colt that he has run so well with this hindrance. This return to 5f looks a good move. However, he still may be a touch keen and reason why he is usually held up behind runners to keep him under control. Even then, he has a tendency to waste valuable energy. The problem with any two-year-old with a number of losses - it seems all the harder to find the winning touch. In addition, I'm always concerned a horse with a number of runs will simply regress (and this often happens when fancied in the betting). 

An intriguing horse who deserve a win and he is the type even if losing today to put down a battle.

Jen's Gift was fancied in the betting on debut at Beverley when running no race. However, this daughter of Territories ran much better when seemingly given no hope at Kempton when 40/1, taking on a couple of hot favourites in a five-horse race. It was a step in the right direction for James Ferguson's filly who looks straightforward. If the likes of Kaboo and Tyson are at their best, you would think she would struggle to win. 

Sir Mark Prescott hasn't had many two-year-olds out this season although one or two have shown ability. The betting is always the key with this stable's debutantes. If strong in the market they can go very well. If weak, they are best left alone. Quella Speranza is a well bred filly sired by Zoffany out of a three-times winning mare who was similarly owned and trained. Quite A Thing was a decent sprinter who won impressively by eight lengths on debut. The market should be informative especially from stall one. 

Another trainer who should be respected, especially at Bath, is Clive Cox. He is an exceptional trainer of two-year-olds at this course and his debutantes often go in at the first time of asking. 

Altai cost 35,000g at the yearling sales. This son of Territories is out of an unraced dam. A wide draw isn't ideal, although he does have one horse on his outer which is crucial for a debutante as they often like to run into space. The betting is key here. If priced in single-figure odds I would expect a bold show, although the statistics suggest they have better place claims. Cox does so well at this track that I always keep an eye on his runners as they often go very well. 

Another fancy is the once-raced Build Me Up who was expected to go well on debut at Sandown when backed to 5/1. Nothing went well that day after a slow start, jumping to his left from the stalls and hanging left thereafter (the perils of betting on debut). This £130,000 breeze up purchase is clearly held in some regard and that first run is best forgotten. The betting is a good guide and if price in single figures would give some hope of ability. A wide draw isn't ideal and does give additional fears with a horse that's proven a touch wayward on debut. 

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: I would definitely let the betting settle before taking a punt as it might help weed out a couple of weak links. Kaboo is something of an enigma and although I am confident this colt has plenty enough ability to win this race you are left with the question: ''Will he?'' I think connections will be bitterly disappointed if this results in another loss. Fingers crossed he can win and go on to better things. I think he will either win well or disappoint and although he is probably more exuberant than temperamental it isn't a trait I like when betting. Tyson deserves a win and dropping back in trip shouldn't waste so much energy. However, he is proven to be a horse who has struggled to win and I'm always fearful a horse with a good few runs may simply regress further. Build Me Up could go well if fancied in the betting. A wide draw isn't ideal as this is such a speed course you don't want to give away a few lengths at the start. He could hold fair each-way claims if priced in single figure odds but I am not keen on the draw at all. Jen's Gift could be the type to pick up the pieces if a few of the major hopes disappoint. However, it's possible she was flattered by her proximity when finishing third at Kempton. Unless Sir Mark Prescott's Quella Speranza starts favourite I would rather watch and see today. Altai could be a fair each-way chance if single-figure odds and the betting will be informative. If the favourites are strong in the betting there is a chance he will be weak and this would be a negative. In addition, the wide draw isn't ideal in a large field. On balance, I would take a watching brief. 

*NR: Kaboo

Author: Jason Coote

Tuesday, 13 July 2021

1:30 Bath Racing Tips (13th July)

A big field at Bath over five-and-half furlongs on good to soft going. 

Tardis ran well on debut and simply outclassed second time out at Haydock. Bell's charge is a small horse but has a level of ability. In fact, the type to go well on this course. A plum draw is good news and I would expect this colt to lead. Quite often these banded races don't take a lot of winning. However, there may be a couple of live hopes in this field and betting at odds of 5/2 doesn't give much value. 

Clive Cox has a brilliant record with his two-year-olds at Bath, especially his debutantes. Shimmering Sky is a relatively cheap purchase at £16,000. If starting at single-figure odds has decent has each-way claims. 

One horse that may go well at a price is Juanita trained by Denis Coakley. He doesn't send many two-year-olds to Bath but he targets this course and he is one of those trainers who is underrated and can go in at big odds. This bay daughter of Adaay out of a winning mare cost just £9,000. 

Of the other unraced My Little Tip hails from George Boughey, who has been a powerhouse this season. I'm building the data from his horses to understand his juveniles but a yard to be respected. 

In conclusion, I think Tardis has the experience and draw to go well but not much value and may be at the mercy of a half-talented horse. Shimmering Sky could go well and holds each-way claims. Clive Cox has been in very good form. If seriously weak in the betting may be a negative although, on balance, has to be respected. Juanita could be the dark horse of the race. At speculative odds (22/1), this filly may run well at big odds. 

Author: Jason Coote

Result:

Source: Racing Post 

Monday, 26 August 2019

Weekly 2- Old-Eye-Catchers (Monday 19th-Sunday 25th August)

17:25 Yarmouth 20 Aug 2019: 

Pocket Square was given a nice introduction at Yarmouth on Tuesday. This homebred Night Of Thunder Roger Charlton filly was well-supported on debut and despite finishing third in the six runner race I was impressed by how she handled herself. Pocket Square looked professional from the start with Jason Watson giving her a crack of the whip a couple of furlongs out, she couldn’t quite match the pace of the winner but was getting the hang of things late on. I guess after a pleasing debut she won't be much of a price next start but I will be hoping she can improve and get her first win. 

14:15 Bath 21 Aug 2019: 

Tommy Rock looks a 2-year-old to follow after a pleasing debut in the Sounds Commercial Bristol Maiden Stakes at Bath on Wednesday. The Clive Cox trained Society Rock colt is owned by Mr Peter Ridgers and was purchased for 100,000 euros as a yearling in the October sales last year. The fact that this grey colt was drawn wide on debut made life a little more difficult, having said that he will have learnt plenty from his first run. Tommy Rock was tapped for toe early on before getting the hang of things later on. The eventual winner Brad The Brief had already flown before Tommy Rock had got into top gear. We will see a much better performance next time out and Tommy Rock will benefit with a step up in distance. I would go as far as saying the 2/1 favourite was the best horse in the race and a win is just around the corner. 

14:05 Carlisle 21 Aug 2019: 

I could be barking up the wrong tree with this 2-year-old to follow but Dandy’s Angel made a pleasing debut at Carlisle this week. I know trainer John Wainwright isn't the most fashionable 2-year-old trainer, in fact, I can't find the last time he actually had a 2-year-old winner, to be honest, but this Dandy Man filly was bought for 20,000 gns this year and despite being way behind early on jockey Sean Davis got a great tune out of her and from being a country mile behind she stayed on quite nicely to finish third behind Deb’s Delight. It wasn't the best race but I am sure she can get her head in front soon and win a small race for owner Mr Anthony Ross. 

14:05 Newmarket 23 Aug 2019: 

Not sure how good the form of the C J Murfitt Ltd Fillies' Novice Stakes race is but the one I will be putting in my trackers is the David Simcock trained Broadbeach. The 60,000 gns Dandy Man filly ran a cracker on her debut. Hayley Turner gave her a peach of a ride and it was only the last furlong Broadbeach began to wander a bit. The 33/1 shot will have learned a lot from that debut and will be looking to get her first win on the board next timeout. 

15:15 Newmarket 23 Aug 2019: 

Am guessing Never Alone will be odds on next start after a promising first run. This was an impressive debut in what looked like a hot little contest. It was all about the other Charlie Appleby colt Royal Crusade here who looks top class after a tidy win but the 1,200,000 gns Dubawi colt Never Alone was staying on at the finish and will be winning races soon enough. 

16:15 York 23 Aug 2019: 

You know most of the horses entered in the Convivial Maiden Stakes race will be decent. The price that the Tom Dascome colt Pot Of Paint was huge. The 66/1 shot was kept at the back by Richard Kingscote before he weaved his way through beaten horses to finish strongly into fourth place. That was an excellent run considering he was at the back until a few furlongs out and the form of the winner looks rock solid. Definitely, one who should pick up a race in the near future. Thanks for reading and look out for my next 2-year-olds to follow