CraigNewton
13.40 Thirsk -
I have a shortlist of three here.
First is the once raced Al Hussar for the Grant Tuer stable who finished seventh on debut at Wolverhampton last month, a 17/2 shot that day when missing the break but staying on at the finish, related to a couple of winners and not one to write off.
End Of Story is another only because trainer Kevin Ryan does like a winner here.
The one I'm taking a chance on is the 32,000 euro purchase JM Jhingree for John & Sean Quinn. The dam La Pergola ran in France and won over five furlongs also with a bit of cut in the ground. Owners MPs Racing & The Ayrshire Tradesmen 1 had a winner at this course last year with Love Wars for same trainer, sometimes I like to look at little things like that when not much to go on, I think the betting should be the key here, the more support the better but over tens I'd be giving it up. The Dandy Man gelding is bred for speed and is around 14s as I write this, the one that the bookies have shortened is the Middleham Park Loughnane runner Lexington Jet, it's all about value with these early 2yos, if you have seen the results so far this season it's definitely worth taking the favourites on.
JM Jhingree 18/1 (taken) 5th
4:20 THIRSK -
John Butler is a tricky trainer to call but there’s a good chance this race is seen as a good opportunity for KAARANAH who’s last two runs have caught the eye.
Equally effective on sand and turf, he has good form at this level and better on ground conditions ranging from Good through Soft.
FlatStats show Butler is 0-20 at Thirsk but it’s a small sample and the booking of Oisin Orr is interesting and has a good record here.
Of the others, Golden Melody is consistent and likely thereabouts but seems a little hard to win with.
I’ll likely save on Kynsa who ran well on first run for K P De Foy at Southwell (another eye-catching jockey booking with Callum Rodriguez piloting).
Beylerbeyi ran well stepping up to a mile LTO and a repeat puts him in the mix.
Young Fire has tumbled down the weights but hasn’t shown anything to hint at a return to form as yet.
GL GL !! 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞
Kaaranah NR
1.45 Newmarket: Mum's Tipple
Mums Tipple impressed in two of his three runs this year on the sand and suggested the way he finished those races shows that he retains plenty of talent as a now 7-year-old gelding.
He's not the most prolific winner these days, but he could be quite well handicapped in the context of the race, with fitness most likely assured and a handicap mark that may underestimate him.
He drops back to 6 furlongs, which should suit. His best performances have come over this trip and any rain won't be a hindrance to his chances at all. The #1 gate is a question mark - but I hope Ryan Moore in the saddle will make some good decisions early on in a race with not too much pace.
In any case, I must go back to his three runs in 2024, with the most recent one at Kempton catching the eye in no uncertain terms, when runner-up behind smart Mount Athos.
He travelled in rear and wasn't advantaged by a slow pace, being poorly positioned, compared to the winner, who enjoyed an easy race from the front. Mums Tipple made eye catching progress from over 3f out as he finished the final three furlongs fastest, only to be denied by a head in the end.
He pulled too hard in a slowly run race over 7f prior at Wolverhampton but was seriously unfortunate when held up from the widest draw and not getting in clear run while hard held on his seasonal reappearance at Lingfield.
Now a return to turf, off a 97 handicap mark, that offers opportunities. He was competitive off 100 last summer in some hot races and still ran to a 94 speed rating at Ascot.
Key will be the start, though: if slowly away, as he can be, and held up, in a race that may not be run at a furious pace, it's likely a game over there and then. But you trust Ryan Moore to read the pace chart, so I'm hopeful he'll navigate Mums Tipple into a solid position to give the gelding every chance.
Mum's Tipple 9/1 4th
16.45 Newmarket EYE OF DUBAI
First past the post and demoted to 2nd last time in a 7f handicap at this course.
He has to take a 4lb rise on the chin but he did an awful lot wrong there from leaving the paddock to the start and in the race itself. He was highly exuberant and very keen so the drop down to 6f looks like a good move.
This is no doubt a much tougher race, up two grades and into a C2 0-100 from that C4 0-80 but he looks like has scope for much more improvement given racing far too keenly LTO, it is testament to him that he clung on and that is also despite the jockey largely riding hands and heels up to the last 100 yards or so. He pulled clear with the runner up who was awarded the race and that one is a highly progressive individual who was more amenable and ridden with cover.
William Buick is a very interesting booking albeit he has only ever had one ride for the yard.
I would definitely say this one is one to follow and because he is still seemingly learning the job, i would suggest he still has easily something left up his sleeve and now he has that all important course experience, he is well worth his place in this line up and it is interesting to me that he takes his chance considering he is still eligible for easier races.
Eye Of Dubai 5/2 UNP
Advised bet Each way lucky 15. FINISHED 5/NR/4/UNP
Thanks for reading and good luck.
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