Saturday 11 May 2024

Saturday's Racing Tips - Inittowinit (11th May)

14.20 Nottingham 

It's pretty tough trying to find a 2-year-old winner for the blog when I don't have a clue if the market will be in favour or not come race time so I'm gonna go with a 3-year-old tracker instead that will hopefully run a race.

ARAMRAM for the Richard Hannon team was well regarded last year and ended up in my trackers. Hannon does fill me with fear as it's hard to catch him right. The Blue Point colt started off in a tough race and was put in his place by the impressive Ghostwriter, yes ARAMRAM was a country mile behind Ghostwriter but we have nothing like that here to contend with. The dam Queen’s Pearl was half decent too, winning three times in a short career. Aramrams siblings include a couple of 80 rated horses. The Blue Point colt drops in trip and has had a wind op. I'm hoping this helps and we can get a run for our money with Sam Hitchcoft on board. 



16.10 Lingfield SONMARG

A horse I am tracking and feel like he should come good at some stage granted the right conditions. He is a huge price of 14/1 in a place. 

He is a brother to Gulmarg from the same connections who went on to win twice over 7f including one on turf. I tracked him too and it's an obvious connection of bias here but still feel this one has something to recommend him here.

He has come in for support the last twice, though in a small field sprint last time proving inadequate. He could not quicken off the furious pace round Chelmsford and was left alone. He steps back up to 7f here and that is more in line with what he wants right now. Needed every yard of the 6f trip when winning as a 2yo and this should see him in a much better light now. 

He made his handicap debut on reappearance, back in March at Kempton over a mile and took a hold and restrained off a steady pace. Not how you are going to win, at least on the all weather. He kept going and came home nice enough for hands and heels riding.

So in theory, the last two runs are excusable in my opinion and he drops 5lb for his trouble, to a mark of 73. Which makes him look well weighted, given his 2yo form. The last time he appeared in a 7f turf race on good ground, he was attempting to concede 6lb to two horses now rated 88 and he made a race of it.

The step up to 7f on turf and granted goodish ground should suit and the tongue tie is reapplied and this could spark an improvement and he definitely warrants an interest here at a nice enough price for me.



245 HAYDOCK - Zozimus was the starting point and has no doubt been in and out of many a notebook/tracker since joining The Horse Watchers and David O’Meara (January last year). 

He has nearly been rewarded on a few occasions whilst certainly disappointing on others. 

This year, following a couple of ‘dwelt in rear….. never near to challenge’ runs at Newcastle over 7f, he ran unusually prominently at Chelmsford (1M) before taking it up after three furlong and going a few lengths clear in what proved to be an unsustainable effort before weakening.

The following runs at Southwell, behind Tropez Power (7f) and latterly behind Crack Shot (Newmarket 1M) were more like it. He’s clearly in good heart and back in what looks like an average class 4 at a track he has run well at,  it’s no surprise to see him favourite.  However, Zozimus (0/22 - 1/11 on sand), is yet to win on turf and dropping back to 7f in a race where there really isn’t much pace may not be the answer, especially if holdup tactics are employed.

Therein lies the angle to take a chance with the likely pacesetter EAGLE DAY who has improved a little over the winter on sand.

Whilst you have to forgive the last run, his penultimate third behind Street Kid was a bold effort and a PB for me (does have a couple of higher RPR’s). 

Racing Post comment _‘Both wins on the AW and worrying that his turf figures are inferior_’ however he has only had 5 runs on turf and weakened on soft ground on a couple of those. 

Joe Fanning is booked who is the man for the job when it comes to setting workable fractions and there does not look to be much pressure on the lead. I think he’s worth a go at what looks like a double figure price. 

Just Call Me Pete is one to keep an eye on; had a quiet run LTO at Newbury and steps up to 7f for the second time (out the rear throughout in only the previous attempt) . He’s another without a turf win to his name but is well capable in this grade and potentially easy pace could help with the extra furlong.

GL GL !! 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞



Pro Horse Racing 

3.00 Lingfield: Imperial Sovereign

This looks like a wide open renewal that lacks a clear favourite and superstar.... at this stage, at least. Ballysax third Illinois heads the market, though it's hard to fancy him on what he's done so far.

On the other hand, he'll likely enjoy the better ground, and the AOB yard seems to have kicked into gear this week, in no uncertain terms. Hence a fair default favourite, but nothing more than that. 

Camelot's son Defiance was a fast finishing second in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom. That gives him an obvious chance to feature, if he can get off to a better start and doesn't find himself too far back.

The pace should be decent, so that may play into his hands. But he's a skinny enough price, and I probably would fancy Illinois in a match bet. 

The Euphrates is another AOB trained colt. Really nicely bred, he should also enjoy the better ground and you'd expect him to improve significantly on the bare form he's sown in three career runs to date. 

Meydaan could be a lot better than he showed on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket where he dwelt and made life difficult for himself. He looked an exciting prospect on his sole juvenile run last year. 

Arabic Legend has to improve, given his 1/4 record and having been keen enough over 10 furlongs at Epsom last month. Salamanca, a son of Sea The Stars, has a lot to find after two winless career runs, while Ambiente Friendly was well-beaten in his last two runs and doesn't give the appearance of a Derby prospect. 

No doubt, the one I must follow here is Imperial Sovereign. He was quite an eye catcher on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton in a hot Novice race. Only a head beaten behind a possibly seriously smart winner.

That day Imperial Sovereign wasn’t smartly away from the gates, but soon recovered and tracked the pace. He then travelled much the best, on the bridle until 2f out, before being all out to the line to be beaten by a better horse on the day, as close as it was ultimately.

He showed a likeable attitude, putting his head down and answering every call, though. That was only his second career run and he won well on debut last autumn.

From a pedigree perspective the trip isn't impossible, if not a given that he sees it out. Nonetheless, he's bred to be classy, and everything he has shown so far points to the son of Frankel certainly having the ability to win at this level. 

The dam did her best work with a bit of juice in the ground. Therefore the faster the going gets, the bigger the questions to answer on that front. However, it may help him to stay on the trip a little bit better. 

In any case, given the open nature of this contest, I feel certainly overpriced in this open Derby Trial.


Advised bet: Each way Lucky 15.


Thanks for reading.

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