My 2yo selection Additive actually ran a nice debut to finish second staying on nicely at the business end. Nothing for me this week as it's quiet
1:30 KEMP - AURIC 1ST 7/2
There was a lot to like about AURIC’s debut run a few weeks ago at Wolver where he broke well and was dropped in. He wasn’t asked for anything until the home straight when the race was already over but finished the race as well as the winner and should improve for that experience.
There was also a lot to like about Ethandun’s come back run who was slightly cut off by the winner when starting a move forward at the 3 pole; worth a watch as it is subtle but perhaps shows what can make a difference (happenstance or race winning move by George Rooke 🤔). Ethandun’s momentum is interrupted enough to delay his run and he can’t get competitive however, it does show some promise.
The literal form line (No Half Measures) ties in with the selection however, AURIC gets the nod having what looked like an educational introduction.
Oisin Murphy taking over indicates they mean business today!!!
GL GL 🤞🍀🤞🍀🤞!!
2.50 Chelmsford - REVERBERATION 4/1 5TH
Veteran Reverberation should have a pretty good chance in this race to land a seventh career victory. Consistent and uncomplicated, he is rather likely to enjoy the run of the race from the front in this field.
Not too many want to go forward. Some of the contenders are prone to miss the break. Hence, the #11 draw may not be a big deal, as Reverberation is a solid starter and should be able to have an uncomplicated way toward the front of the pack.
Off his current mark he's handicapped to go really well, no doubt. He bumped into a highly progressive winner last time, but ran in line with those performances he showed all winter that suggest he's got another win in him off 56, in the right circumstances.
The form of his two wins at Chelmsford over a mile and 10 furlongs back in December and January worked out quite well too, giving his credentials here real substance.
The 5lb claim of red-hot Joe Leavy should come in handy. He seems a good judge of pace and ridden Reverberation last time as well.
The main danger I see most likely in top-weight Lucidity. The light-raced filly could have too much class in this grade, if ready to go on her seasonal reappearance.
However, she was held up in her runs as well, and many in this field seem to prefer a good bit of cover and seeing the back of rivals for most of the race.
The scenario should seriously benefit a consistent in-form horse like Reverberation, who will have no excuses with the run of the race guaranteed, as long as he has a decent start. The fact he drops ever so slightly down in grade is another positive.
16.55 Kempton KNEBWORTH 3/1 4TH
Here I am continuing my love affair with this horse, there are plenty of reasons to be positive about his chances once again. He is out again fairly quick, only two weeks ago, he won at Doncaster on soft ground. He did have to battle there to get back up but came out last season and won off a seven day break, so proved he can back up a performance. Perhaps also hugely in his favour here is his yards hot streak of form, 9/21 in the last fortnight.
Knebworth bumped into Ferrous on penultimate run ( Wolves ) who opposes again here but does have a 9lb swing in the weights, due to the claimer Ethan Jones again in the saddle this time ( was not on when these two clashed ) so he is weighted to reverse those placings and Ferrous is drawn in eleven which could hinder. Again pointed last time out, he was keen early on in the race and restrained before getting outpaced turning in, second wind kicked in and he came home well there to finish on Ferrous’ quarters. I can see this course ( Kempton ) suiting this one better, with a longer straight to play with, particularly the way again he showed his determination last time at Doncaster where it does take some getting on the straight course, the others to race up on the pace with him dropped away so his performance can be marked up and it was a fairly quick time considering the conditions.
Knebworth should really be getting competitive for me here, carrying only 8st9lb effectively off a mark of 81, yard is in terrific form and drawn in two, ideal for a prominent runner, riding will hopefully be no worry with him getting the trip very well. Drawn next to the obvious pace angle in stall one and that could even be an aid, track him and keep some cover before kicking on ( that guy only 1-25 on AW and appearing to be aiming high here off the mark )
Cheekpieces obviously gave him a lift LTO and he could still have something up his sleeve and there are questions surrounding the others ( decided against including another 100 words on them ) . Hopefully I will get a decent price on the day of the race, value would of course be key.
Advised bet: Win Trixie: 1ST (7/2), 5TH, 4TH
Good luck.
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