Saturday 24 June 2023

Ascot Day 5 - Team Inittowinit (24th June)


Day 5 let's move on quickly from day 4.

14.30 Ascot 


Hoping to end the week with a winner in the Chesham Stakes. Tough little race of course but I'm sticking with the twice raced LA GUARIDA for Richard Hannon and Kevin Stott. The New Bay filly ran well on her debut at Newmarket finishing third to few fancied runners. The winner Jabaara finished down the field in the Albany Stakes today. La Guardia made no mistake next timeout beating Indispensable who won next timeout. The form looks strong and has decent claims for owners Amo Racing. Little outsider could be the debutant Warnie for Joseph O'Brien and should improve whatever he does. 

La Guardia 15/2 Unp


500 ASC Wokingham Stakes HCP – KHANJAR caught the eye first time out this year at York when travelling nicely then asked for nothing when apparently needing the run; this was clearly a pipe opener.  On his next run at Hamilton, the opening 2/1 (dec stage) soon became 5/4 but again the effort was slightly underdone as he was slowly away and not really given too hard a time staying on out wide (likely still in need of the run and with this race at Royal Ascot in mind). With those two runs under his belt, we have likely peak fitness today and first time cheek pieces applied for sharpness (Haggas has good stats when applying these) and it looks like the race itself will suit being a stiff, well run 6F with what looks like a favourable draw. Classy Orazio is a worthy favourite but for the save I will look at JUAN LES PINS who impressed me last time and is another looking like arriving here better than ever. He looked capable of the step back up to this level with a visually impressive win at Nottingham and his third in the Ayr Gold Cup shows the ability to compete at this level…..GL GL !! 🍀🤞🍀🤞🍀

Khanjar 11/1 Unp


15.05 Jersey Stakes HOLLOWAY BOY 

Winner of the listed Chesham Stakes on this same card last year at 40/1 on his debut. 

Comes here on the back of 2000 Guineas run on reappearance and like so many on the day would have been unsuited by the going and perhaps the run was needed also. Still very encouraging to see him appear in that particular race and shows how highly he is regarded even if the debut here last season does not already show.

This represents a drop in grade now and he should strip much fitter. Visor worn the last twice in G1s comes off. 

I’d imagine being by Ulysses, as already seen, natural progression from two to three should be significant and he can be even better this year. 

He has obviously won over course and distance and the return to this scenario should suit him with a good pace expected, he should be doing his best work late on and can hopefully pick them off on the more suitable ones found here. He says. 

According to Stable Tour via attheraces, this was always the plan. “He is a very good horse and has a lot of ability” 

Represents value at an each way play to me at the prices and it’s a step up for the warm favourite from handicap debut, though maybe up to the task obviously after winning very easily LTO.

Holloway Boy 7/1 4th 


3.52 Newmarket: Vecchio Vecchio could be overpriced if he can cope with the drop in trip and potentially muddling pace on faster ground. However, he looked last time out as if a drop in trip would suit, showed solid early speed over 6 furlongs as a juvenile and ran solid on better ground as well. I liked his comeback run off a break and gelding operation last time at Goodwood quite a lot, where he tried a mile: He tracked the pace early on, was pretty keen through the first half of the race, though. Didn't enjoy the clearest of run in the home straight and had to delay his full effort multiple times, also hung toward the far rail. I hope from the #1 draw he'll be on the right side of the track, can bounce out of the gate, grab that rail and just makes it all to use his early speed and stamina to stay on strongly. Off 77 he could be quite well-handicapped in this field.

Vecchio 6/1 7th

Finishing position 0/0/4/7

Advised bet Lucky 15. 

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