What an absolute stinker of a Saturday, I did say I will be honest about the good and the bad this season. I got up feeling positive about a few trackers I had put on the night before. I checked the market a few times throughout the day and updated my notes.
First bet was a speculative each way on Elmaftun who was an Irish tracker (say nothing) the 33s I took turned into 50s and by now I knew my outcome, second to last, not to be disheartened because I wasn't too confident anyway.
Second bet was Thunder Moor for Kevin Ryan, a few whispers the night before so took 7/2 and good to see the Dandy Man colt get smashed into 15/8 favourite, I was confident until I saw money for the Burke Jungle Cat filly. Thunder Moor looked a bit green before going into the stalls but was away well and I thought she would stride away the final furlong but instead hung right and faded, the money horse Miss Jungle Cat won well.
Third bet was supposed to be Paris Lights. I actually felt the Siyouni colt had a chance at 7s but ended up a non runner.
The day wasn't going as planned but I still had what I thought was a few beauties up my sleeve, next was Chef De Partie who I thought looked nailed on for a place under the guidance of Hollie Doyle at Newbury, dwelt ffs here we go again, always playing catch up and never got to the leaders but not sure he would have won to be honest, also had Tashkent for Richard Hannon, I thought my 16s was a good each way bet but he soon drifted to 22/1 and never got involved.
The bets were adding up, this was supposed to be my disciplined season, I checked out Rock Girl the 2yo Amo owned George Boughey filly, looked a poor race on paper, Hughes had the favourite Knebworth, not a trainer you would associate with first time out 2yo winners but Knebworth was steady in the market, I know best I'm gambling on Rock Girl, the race started Knebworth the Awtaad colt was quickly away while Rock Girl couldn't keep up with the blistering pace, how wrong was I as Knebworth won easily, Rock Girl stayed on to finish second but no money coming back again.
I think I knew how the day was going to end, you just get a feeling it's not your day.
I backed Valsad who again drifted out but to be fair the Ryan Moore mount actually ran well to finish fifth at 28s.
The lucky last bet at Nottingham for me to at least keep my head up high and get one winner. I noticed support for the Queen's 2yo runner Crosstich into 4s and jumped on but the gelding ran green and faded.
What did I learn from today? I have to be more disciplined definitely, practice what I preach. Today all the 2yo debutantes that won were backed late, that's something to consider when thinking I've got a decent price the night before. Irish 3yo trackers are the devil so staying away from them, all in all, noting down my bets and looking through them is something that can only benefit me as I try to become more consistent and make profit from this wonderful sport. Another pointer with the 2yos so far is we've had sixteen races and twelve winners have been under 5/1.
It's going to be tough trying to get back on top in April but with more discipline and the right approach I will try my best, now time for my other addiction, eating Easter eggs.
Thanks for reading and Happy Easter.
Unlucky, Craig. My bet Honiton went from 18/1 to 7/2 at one point. Ended up 9/2 and ran a decent race to finish 3rd to the Haggas favourite. Will win a race at some point, i'm sure.
ReplyDeleteYes seen it, ran very well, I noticed a certain tipster give it in social media maybe why price dropped
DeleteMaybe this game is easier than it seems. Those 12 winners show a profit even at SP of 6.67 points / 17.1%. BFSP gives 9.81 points profit / 25.16%
ReplyDeletePicking them winners is the hard part 🤣
DeleteFurther to the market analysis, simply backing the BFSP favourite in each of the 16 races has bagged 7 winners (43.75%). £1 on each gives you a profit of £5.65 (35.32% ROI) after 2% commission. Place market is 12/16 and £2.12 profit.
ReplyDelete