Saturday 28 August 2021

4:55 Windsor Racing Tips (28th August)

A fascinating race. 

Thirteen two-year-olds take part over 6f (6f 12y) on good to firm going. 

Kimngrace is a non runner, which marginally helps with easing the competitive nature of this race. 

But not much. 

To be fair this looks a very competitive heat and I would need a price to even tempt to bet. 

An interesting mix of form horses and debutantes. I can imagine most of the trainers hoped to turn up here with a win in their sights. I doubt they will be so confident now. 

Dayman has been very well backed. I made a balls up not getting in early as this horse trained by David Loughnane in the ownership of Amo Racing limited was double-figure odds on the exchanges. It's a fraction of those odds. I have little doubt this son of Oasis Dream has ability but betting on debutantes can be a very tricky business. The stable can go well with their newcomers and I wouldn't be surprised to see a big effort. 

Karl Burke's Sherdil has run well on both starts to date when losing narrowly. He is held in some regard by the stable and I thought he would take some stopping last time at Thirsk. I can imagine Shane Kelly pressing on and from this low draw may well take some pegging back.

Another horse with a very good draw (1) is William Haggas' Scattering. This son of Showcasing is a good-looking colt who made a nice debut over 5f and looked to have strong claims when stepping up to 6f when fancied to go well at Goodwood in a Class 2 race with a big purse [£13,085]. However, he was much too keen and ruined any chance of winning, especially in the testing conditions. He's been off a month most probably working on that problem. A horse with ability but you wouldn't want to be pulling hard against this level of opposition. That factor is off putting. 

Clive Cox often goes well at this course and Codify looks a little disappointing but may return here with a live hope. This son of Lawman is a very good-looking colt who was fancied in the betting on his second start and was flying for the first 6f and tired in the closing stages. This drop back in distance will help. A wide draw is a slight negative but a horse I would respect and if drifting to double-figure odds may have a fighting chance. 

Conclusion: This looks a competitive heat and it really is difficult to pick between the lines. I can see all the four horses noted making a bold show. The only thing that would tempt me to bet would be a half speculative price but that looks unlikely. It may have helped if Kimngrace had remained. Scattering may pull which is a potential problem. Dayman is held in some regard but it's no easy feat to win on debut especially against experienced horses. To beat these form horses at the first time of asking would need a pretty smart horse. That may be the case but betting at shortish odds (after missing the price) doesn't offer much value. You wouldn't want a slow start on this speed course. Sherdil is a fair horse and looks straightforward. I think he will lead and try to hold that advantage. I would be surprised if he doesn't hit the frame. Codify is a lovely-looking colt and I think he will run well. He has been made to look worse by taking his chance over 7f. That was a step too far and if touching double-figure odds may be an each-way hope.

Author: Jason Coote

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