Tuesday 17 August 2021

2:15 Bath Racing Tips (18th August)

A fascinating race. 

This 12-strong field of maidens race over 5f (5f10y) on Good going. 

Karl Burke's *Kaboo has been disappointing. I'm sure connections thought winning a formality. 

However, three runs later, this son of More Than Ready is still awaiting victory. 

Making his racecourse bow at Listed class tells the reputation of this colt. He was made favourite second start when disappointing, then further frustration competing at Goodwood, beaten double-figure lengths. 

It's back to the drawing board with this maiden.

Kaboo is a very talented horse but his headstrong ways have been his downfall.

Perhaps it is exuberance. 

A keen-going horse is one with a question mark. 

In my opinion, Kaboo will be an easy winner or a poor loser. 

From a string of flashy entries, this March foal is one of the better two-year-olds at Spigot Lodge. 

At present, those ambitions are still alive. If this race results in another loss those lofty plans will most likely be shelved.

Let's hope we see a better performance today. Anything other than a win will be viewed as disappointing.

Richard Hannon probably feels the same about Tyson, who is trying to make it seventh race lucky. 

To be fair, this grey gelding has come close to winning on at least three occasions when beaten by half a length or less. Much of Tyson's problems have come from being far too keen in his races. It says something about this colt that he has run so well with this hindrance. This return to 5f looks a good move. However, he still may be a touch keen and reason why he is usually held up behind runners to keep him under control. Even then, he has a tendency to waste valuable energy. The problem with any two-year-old with a number of losses - it seems all the harder to find the winning touch. In addition, I'm always concerned a horse with a number of runs will simply regress (and this often happens when fancied in the betting). 

An intriguing horse who deserve a win and he is the type even if losing today to put down a battle.

Jen's Gift was fancied in the betting on debut at Beverley when running no race. However, this daughter of Territories ran much better when seemingly given no hope at Kempton when 40/1, taking on a couple of hot favourites in a five-horse race. It was a step in the right direction for James Ferguson's filly who looks straightforward. If the likes of Kaboo and Tyson are at their best, you would think she would struggle to win. 

Sir Mark Prescott hasn't had many two-year-olds out this season although one or two have shown ability. The betting is always the key with this stable's debutantes. If strong in the market they can go very well. If weak, they are best left alone. Quella Speranza is a well bred filly sired by Zoffany out of a three-times winning mare who was similarly owned and trained. Quite A Thing was a decent sprinter who won impressively by eight lengths on debut. The market should be informative especially from stall one. 

Another trainer who should be respected, especially at Bath, is Clive Cox. He is an exceptional trainer of two-year-olds at this course and his debutantes often go in at the first time of asking. 

Altai cost 35,000g at the yearling sales. This son of Territories is out of an unraced dam. A wide draw isn't ideal, although he does have one horse on his outer which is crucial for a debutante as they often like to run into space. The betting is key here. If priced in single-figure odds I would expect a bold show, although the statistics suggest they have better place claims. Cox does so well at this track that I always keep an eye on his runners as they often go very well. 

Another fancy is the once-raced Build Me Up who was expected to go well on debut at Sandown when backed to 5/1. Nothing went well that day after a slow start, jumping to his left from the stalls and hanging left thereafter (the perils of betting on debut). This £130,000 breeze up purchase is clearly held in some regard and that first run is best forgotten. The betting is a good guide and if price in single figures would give some hope of ability. A wide draw isn't ideal and does give additional fears with a horse that's proven a touch wayward on debut. 

The others are best watched.

Conclusion: I would definitely let the betting settle before taking a punt as it might help weed out a couple of weak links. Kaboo is something of an enigma and although I am confident this colt has plenty enough ability to win this race you are left with the question: ''Will he?'' I think connections will be bitterly disappointed if this results in another loss. Fingers crossed he can win and go on to better things. I think he will either win well or disappoint and although he is probably more exuberant than temperamental it isn't a trait I like when betting. Tyson deserves a win and dropping back in trip shouldn't waste so much energy. However, he is proven to be a horse who has struggled to win and I'm always fearful a horse with a good few runs may simply regress further. Build Me Up could go well if fancied in the betting. A wide draw isn't ideal as this is such a speed course you don't want to give away a few lengths at the start. He could hold fair each-way claims if priced in single figure odds but I am not keen on the draw at all. Jen's Gift could be the type to pick up the pieces if a few of the major hopes disappoint. However, it's possible she was flattered by her proximity when finishing third at Kempton. Unless Sir Mark Prescott's Quella Speranza starts favourite I would rather watch and see today. Altai could be a fair each-way chance if single-figure odds and the betting will be informative. If the favourites are strong in the betting there is a chance he will be weak and this would be a negative. In addition, the wide draw isn't ideal in a large field. On balance, I would take a watching brief. 

*NR: Kaboo

Author: Jason Coote

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