Thursday 21 January 2021

5:30 Newcastle 7f Novice Stakes (21st January)

An intriguing race. 

If you are considering betting on this race you might want to take a look at and be first to get some bookies free bets and offers.  

Roger Varian fields an interesting debutante in the shape of Malhood in the ownership of Hamdam Al Maktoum. This son of Kitten's Joy is out of an unraced mare but an expensive foal and yearling at $325,000. From a statistical point of view, Varian's debutantes go very well at short odds and I suspect this February foal will take some beating. If very weak in the betting it would be a concern and may given reason to look at other horses but I don't think that will be the case. 

Captain Cooper ran well on debut for Kevin Ryan when priced 28/1. This gelding disappointed second time out when 11/8. In truth, it was a a dismal effort over course and distance in sixth place. It is likely this son of Muhaarar is much better than seen. He may be a viable alternative if an each-way price. 

A similar message can be taken for Andrew Balding's Abraag. This son of Acclamation was a beaten favourite last time out when stepping up to one mile but beaten into fourth. A slow start didn't help. The winner and second are decent horses and if starting better, this colt has each-way claims. 

One horse that may hold claims at big odds is Ed Dunlop's Royal Heart. He is a good-looking son of Wootton Bassett who cost 100,000 gns at the yearling sales. Owner, Paul Turner, has one or two fair horses in the stable and this three-year-old travelled well last time out when a 66/1 chance, finishing fifth, tiring in the closing stages after looking to hold some hope. It's perhaps pushing the realms to consider this horse will be winning today but there may be a hope of hitting the frame, especially dropping back to 7f.  There has been money for Royal Heart, who was as high as 36 on Betfair, before being backed to 13. I wouldn't be interested in betting unless drifting back out to much bigger odds. There is always a worry horses on their third start will be given an economical ride to get a fair handicap mark. This should be considered. On balance, I would consider this gelding has better place than win claims. 

The other horses are best watched. 

Summary: It's an intriguing race which most punters will be looking to Roger Varian's Malhood to win. As with all debutantes, you are chancing your arm because inexpedience is often the downfall for even quality horses. I would respect this colt but I'm never one for betting at short odds. If a fraction weak in the betting, it could well add to the hope of the second and third favourite making viable each-way alternatives. An outsider with a chance may be Ed Dunlop's Royal Heart who offered a little bit of value at 30/1+ on the exchanges, but those odds have been taken and I suspect he will be a better prospect at nursery class. 

Author: Jason Coote

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comment. All spam will be removed.