Wednesday 27 January 2021

1:40 Southwell Racing Info (28th January)

Just sitting here watching TV. 

May as well take a quick look at this race - thinking aloud. 

Eight three-year-olds take part. A couple of winners shouldering penalties. 

I recently conducted a study to assess winners with the burden of a few extra pound because in my mind it was a big negative. It proves the point, if you have a question in mind an hour or two of work can help find the answer. It's time well spent. 

As it happens, these penaltised horses, when priced 13/2 and less SP, run very well. 

A good number start at short odds. I was pleasantly surprised how well they go and many win again. 

The two horse I'm referring to are Whittle Le Woods, trained by Michael Dods, in the familiar silks of David Armstrong and Cahors, trained by Anthony Carson, who is a capable trainer who deserves a few more horses in his stable. This daughter of Lethal Force won well at odds of 22/1, and by all accounts was fancied to go well.

To be honest, I'm looking at Karl Burke's Bright Apparition who is available at odds of 10/1, and bigger on the exchanges. 

I some respects I'm still making up my mind about this bay gelding, a son of Charm Spirit. He's out of a twice-winning mare, who won at Listed class on her second outing and far from disgraced when racing at Pattern class on her next three starts (a couple in France) before being retired as a brood mare. 

Bright Apparition has been fancied on both starts. He was seriously backed last time out at Newcastle when racing over 7f. 

I had a bet on him that day at big odds, half fancying my chances. I wasn't amused. 

Anyway, Bright Apparition was far from a winner, as he looked a touch keen before dropping back to finish last. 

I wasn't over joyed. 

He had decent stats that day so I was hopeful. The question is whether the beast will be revived by a spell on the sidelines and dropping back to six furlongs. 

It would help if he settles. 

It's one of those horses and bets. 

The only angle I can see with this type of horse is to get big odds and hope he's well backed to lay off as a no-lose bet. That's only possible if you bet on the exchanges. 

If it wasn't for the fact this gelding is a decent price I wouldn't really think too much about it. 

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to see it go well but it wouldn't be such a traumatic experience to see him disappoint and pop up next time with a nice handicap mark. 

The jury is out. 


Author: Jason Coote

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