Monday 4 May 2020

The Genesis of Thought

This post isn't about the creation of the Earth and of mankind. Neither is it about an English rock band formed at Charterhouse School, Godalming, Surrey. 

Perhaps if it would be better if it was!

Only joking. 

Craig's Betting Blog is about two-year-old racing and we are always interested in data that helps detail a fact or two. Primary data (as it is called) is always significant because it is quantitative. 

Anyway, Craig added a link to his Facebook page (you can join if you wish) about a website called Genesis Thoroughbreds. I've seen their name before but could really tell you too much about them. 

Let's keep this live and updated by having a look this very second. Genesis Thoroughbreds say on their About Page: ''Genesis Thoroughbreds is a racing club like no other. We're not motivated by track days out or even trips to the winner's enclosure  - we are the winner's enclosure. 

It sounds impressive. 

The post is titled: Two-Year-Olds of 2019, published April 30th, 2020. 

The post is worth a look because it affords a lot of data and a summary of 2yo racing 2019. 

There is lots of info to appreciate and it is a pick and mix of assorted stuff and very much about what catches your eye. 

One thing that I found interesting related to 2yos geldings. 

This related to geldings winning both UK and Irish races.

This is what is says:

357 races
256 open
100 auction 
1 claiming 

Won by 184 colts, 157 fillies, and 21 geldings 

Take a look at this table of 2yo winner 2019 by race type: Estimated gelding winners in brackets

Maiden              357 - 26% (21)
Novices             564 - 41% (30)
Conditions           40 -  3% 
Claiming/selling     25 -  2% 
Handicaps           273 - 20% (15)
Other                20 -  1% (1) 
Listed               32 -  2%
Group                56 -  4%

So for Maidens in UK/Ireland, just 21 wins came from geldings which is just under 6%.

I wish I had the data to detail the number of geldings that won each of the race types to get a percentage. It would be even better to have the total number of raced geldings for this sample. 

In general, a two-year-old is gelding after being ''troublesome'' at home with the thought of bringing improvement and the greater chance of winning a race. This may happen before the colt makes its debut. 

It's interesting to consider that just 21 winners came from geldings compared with 184 from colts. Whatever the number of the colts gelded in their formative season is doesn't sound a lot of winners.

This brings me to consider that temperamental horses and those gelded should be considered with caution as betting propositions. And the focus on a horse being gelded as a positive may be far from the truth.

Without the complete stats, it is difficult to prove the point but I would estimate 9% of 2yo winners come from geldings. 

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