Saturday, 11 April 2020

Horse Trainers Who Defy the Odds

Reading the headline you will be chomping at the bit.

From years of research, it's interesting what you can find. You must have heard of the quote: ''Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics''

This has been attributed to Benjamin Disraeli (1804 - 1881) who was Prime Minister of Great Brittain from 1874 - 1880. I'm not sure of the context of this statement but you can imagine it was to detail that you can make numbers whatever you wish. 

I guess statistics can be manipulated to fit whatever we want to prove. So they have strength and weakness.

However, the arbitrary line we draw for a given trainer can still be revealing and help bring insight. 

For instance, Brian Meehan is a thoroughbred horse trainer you would respect. Manton House Estate, Marlborough, Wiltshire has been the starting point for a number of very talented horses.

In fact, at the time of writing, the stable has achieved victories including:

  • 1368 winners 
  • 15 Group 1
  • 12 Group 2 
  • 34 group 3 

Who can forget exceptional horses as David Junior, Red Rocks & Magical Romance?

It's intriguing how a trainer can vary from one extreme to another. 

This is especially true for debutantes. 

Researching Brian Meehan's stats we can find a very revealing fact. 

Did you realise his fancied debutantes have a poor strike rate?

It's interesting that he has very few debutantes priced 6/4 and less. In fact, horses making their racecourse bow when priced 11/4 & less are underpriced to a point where following them with hard-earned cash would see you well out of pocket.

This research covers just about 20 horses. I cannot tell you the exact numbers because it isn't in my interests to reveal every last fact. However, both win and place are very poor. 

So what does this suggest?

It could tell us one of two things. 

That the horses need the run or of limited ability. In truth, it is probably a little bit of both. However, we can assess this point by reviewing these very horses on their second start. It suggests that most of these fancied debutantes do have ability and need the run. If fancied to go well in the betting second start you should expect a much-improved performance.



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